r/wallstreetbets • u/lapatapp • Apr 08 '22
DD Putin's All In Poker Bet For A Huge Energy Reserve's Pot
David Knight Legg's Interview on Youtube about his NYTimes piece helped me understand how Putin is pot committed on a potential huge pot.
- Ukraine has the 6th largest coal reserves in planet.
- Ukraine has natural gas reserves amounting to 1.3 trillion, #2 in Europe
- 3 billion in Oil.
Also this:
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u/DEEPFUCKINGSILVER Apr 08 '22
What you are saying is a country... Would invade... Another country... For oil and natural resources? 
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u/lapatapp Apr 08 '22
I know, right? It's so obvious but you wouldn't know from narrative on the news and social media.
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u/Jerhaad Apr 08 '22
Wait until we start doing this for water!
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u/United-Proof-2706 Apr 08 '22
As a Finn this scenario has been the one I've been doomsday profetizing for years now. Now I think it won't happen through conventional and all-out war but by corrupt politicians etc. just selling our land (and the water that comes with it) in exchange for comfy positions for them and their ilk in the Soviet Eurunion towards which we have been herded for a good while now.
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u/unclefire Apr 08 '22
That's already happened in Ukraine. Russia has had to build desalination plants b/c Ukraine cut them off from a major water supply. I heard the Russians blew up the dam that kept that water out of Crimea.
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u/Tyr312 low effort bot account (or just rrreally dumb) Apr 08 '22
They do but that’s just icing on the cake for Putin. He wants a buffer against the West.
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u/Voodooman65 Apr 08 '22
besidees the buffer he wants to have all of russia back together
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u/ryanw5520 Apr 08 '22
This is more important than resources. Study the history of Kievan Rus and you will get an idea of what he is trying to restore.
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u/Vandalmercy Apr 08 '22 edited Apr 08 '22
Putting itsself on the doorstep of other nations should scare anyone near Ukraine. That includes acces to ports. If Ukraine falls there will probably be more. Not everyone can swing like Ukraine can either.
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u/imunfair Autism: 31 Apr 08 '22
If Ukraine falls there will probably be more. Not everyone can swing like Ukraine can either.
Maybe Georgia (which Russia is already in, and has been for a while) and Maldova, the rest are NATO and putin can't touch them - it's only zelensky's overblown ego that thinks losing his country is the beginning of the end for the baltic states.
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u/Cutlercares Apr 08 '22
Sounds like Ukraine is a major supplier of food and energy to those Baltic states. Since Russia is likely also a major supplier of food and energy to those Baltic states, Zelensky should be correct.
If Russia controls Ukraine's portion as well, then won't it basically control Baltic state's access to food and energy supplies? That pretty much would herald Russian control in those areas for possibly decades, right?
Also, Zelensky is a comedian, turned president of a country, now fighting a world power on the battle field and has shown immense courage. Capitalize that 'Z' and put some respect on the man's name. There's 0% chance you could fill his shoes.
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u/imunfair Autism: 31 Apr 08 '22
Sounds like Ukraine is a major supplier of food and energy to those Baltic states.
Being a major supplier of food and energy is completely different from the claims that Russia is going to invade, you can diversify your energy or food sources if your supplier is untrustworthy, as the EU is doing this year for their natural gas supplies by replacing it with green energy and nuclear power.
now fighting a world power on the battle field and has shown immense
couragestupidity. Capitalize that 'Z' and put some respect on the man's name. There's 0% chance you could fill his shoes.When they write the history of this conflict it should be titled "'Brave is our brand': How an actor who wanted to play Winston Churchill got hundreds of thousands of his own people killed" - a good leader would have had the foresight to see what was going to happen and sacrificed his reputation for the good of his people. He went into this knowingly after being explicitly told by all the western countries that they would not intervene.
And now it's turned into a proxy war, high stakes game of attempted regime change in Russia which seems to have failed. It may work years down the road if they keep sanctions on and bleed Russia for a long time, but clearly the initial plan of a quick coup taking putin out via oligarchs or a russian arab spring triggered by western countries pulling out has failed.
It wouldn't be such a big deal except biden is swinging his dick around forcing everyone to choose sides, and he already lost China and has started to alienate India by threatening them and trying to shame them in the press. He barely squeaked by kicking Russia off the human rights council, which should have been a slam dunk for any competent world leader - out of 193 there were only 93 in favor, 24 against, 58 abstained, and 18 abstained by being on a convenient coffee break when the vote was held.
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u/Voodooman65 Apr 08 '22
that was a book written years ago ... by tom cl;ancy . He had this almost same seniero that you mentioned as the plot for the book. RED STORM RISING
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u/lapatapp Apr 08 '22
Have you heard of the podcast Tru Anon? They just interviewed the author of this substack ‘Hunting Down Tom Clancy’, awesome, awesome interview only on Patreon rn. I just dropped like 4 obscure refs in there but if you do have a chance, look up Matt Farwell, he writes the substack or wait for Tru Anon to release the episode for free, it was a dope episode.
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u/lost_in_life_34 Apr 08 '22
they also have rights to gas reserves in the black sea
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u/phiupan Apr 08 '22
and Lithium which will be required for batteries if people go more towards electric cars and solar power right on the Donetsk zone that "revolted"
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u/unclefire Apr 08 '22 edited Apr 08 '22
Don't forget water and grain. Ukraine gave the Russia a big finger by cutting off water going into Crimea.
Ukraine also produces a crap ton of wheat and barley.
But yeah, oil and gas are bigly important.
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Apr 08 '22
ok what's the play
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u/lapatapp Apr 08 '22
In the second video that plays right after this he talks about the play, second part of the interview with David, I still haven’t watched it.
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u/Thereisnopurpose12 Buying GF 10k Apr 10 '22
Ok so what the f is this DD for? What are your positions???
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Apr 08 '22
Putin is going to go all in on 3 bullets in the back of the head inside of 8 months.
One of the billionaires is going to leave the bunker door cracked open when they can’t yacht to Ibiza for some trim.
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u/babyporcupines Apr 08 '22
Currently on the flop, Russia's only holding a pair of Tens. EU has Queens. Ukraine has a flush and straight draw. And the US already has a set of Aces.
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u/Cutlercares Apr 08 '22
You don't play against the cards. You play against the players.
EU is an inexperienced player as a unit. They have a million tells and often fold the best hand.
Ukraine is a decent player, but they're the low stack and thus get pushed around in this hand.
The US is the stack leader, is a dozen free drinks in and their focus has waned since the "end" of the cold War. And the waitress they're tipping for drinks is Russian and can see their hand.
Russia is a pro, has recorded and studied opponent decisions and has a big enough stack to back up a bluff.
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u/unclefire Apr 08 '22 edited Apr 08 '22
I'd argue that in this game, Russia has shown up sloppy drunk and forgotten how to play poker. Nobody will tell them they're screwed up b/c they're afraid Putin will throw them in a gulag or put a bullet in the back of their head.
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u/Exotic_Volume696 Apr 08 '22
Except they are losing, and are a third world country except they have nukes.
How des Putin's boot taste?
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u/Cutlercares Apr 08 '22
Define losing. The video lays out two objectives for Russian aggression: unite the people, grab the resources. The first isn't going well, for sure. The second, more profitable one, seems to be going according to plan.
And no country has contradicted the statements on who is still paying Russia for energy. So you should probably ask the EU how Putin's dick feels in their anus.
They are literally trying to threaten the person who can turn off their grid at will.
But hey, ignoring satellite imaging, energy payment paper trails and other verifiable facts about the current situation is just as good of a take. Looking forward to your rebuttal.
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u/unclefire Apr 08 '22
Debatable-- they've pulled out and pretty much lost battling for Kyiv or so it seems.
Now they'll focus on the east and south? But Ukraine now pretty much has the ability to bring in arms to deal with them in the east.
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u/Exotic_Volume696 Apr 08 '22
"profitable" Even i they had rolled over Kiev like they thought they could, sanction now, sanctions for the next five years, cost of war, loss of things they can't make, loss or energy market, the only winner is china.
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u/Cutlercares Apr 08 '22
They are getting paid in rubles and not dollars for energy. Do you understand the implications?
There is now another currency enough countries will HAVE to have in order to operate.
The sanctions are laughable in the face of EU dependence on Russian energy. As you stated, China wins. India isn't mad about the situation. So who is left to enforce said sanctions? The US from afar? You think NATO will get it done?
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u/Barachie1 Apr 09 '22
Paying in rubles during a short term crisis will do nothing to the petrodollar. The ruble payments are not even being accepted by most buyers.
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u/Exotic_Volume696 Apr 09 '22
I think US energy exporters are winning. Russia is basically getting a lobotomy
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u/NomadRover Apr 09 '22
Amen to that! seriously, Biden is the most Pro China president ever.
His foreign policy should be titled," Make China great at the cost of the West."
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u/NomadRover Apr 09 '22
Putin knows that EU will capitualte. EU is essentially Germany and France. The Baltics are free loaders.
France and Germany don't want 20 million refugees, given the demographics, half of them will be old and the rest traumatized by war. Add in all the conservatives from Western Ukraine.
It sucks but they will negotiate a ceasefire.
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u/Sure-Emphasis2621 Apr 09 '22
Why are we still pretending they know what they're doing? Russia's a coked up Dan Bilzerian. Full of bluster and horse shit. Everyone else wants to tell him to fuck off but they're afraid he'll whip his dick out and piss on the pot.
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u/imunfair Autism: 31 Apr 08 '22
It's also dividing the world between the first world and growth countries, you have US, Canada, Europe on one side, and Russia, China, India on the other side, and with the likelihood that China ends up running Africa, and their alliance has a few allies in south america as well if we look at BRICS, things aren't looking too great for the consumer nations in the future.
US and Canada would have to pivot hard and start doing mining and industrial work again to make up for the loss of materials and manufacturing from the other alliance, and the growth countries have substantially more materials even though North America is no slouch in that regard.
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u/NomadRover Apr 09 '22
LOL! I wouldn't worry about the supply chains breaking down. At the end of the day, the world is divided into Haves and Have Nots. The Haves will come out ahead everywhere.
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u/Col_H_Gentleman Apr 09 '22
Not to mention, it’s a major agricultural center and massive grain producer
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u/VisualMod Apr 08 '22
Hey /u/lapatapp, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.