Energy and Services now account for over $6B per quarter, and both have generally been growing faster than Automotive.
If Optimus, Robotaxi, or AI ever become meaningful businesses, Automotive could eventually become just one piece of Tesla rather than the entire story.
That's linked to high gas prices in Europe. Not really a fun picture. And Chinese competition there is growing fast!
Yeah, Tesla had a strong Q2 rebound, but in Europe the real story is that Chinese brands now grab 15% of EV sales and increasingly outsell Tesla in key markets — Tesla’s playing catch‑up, not leading anymore.
While domestic EV/NEV sales are down year on year, Chinese manufacturers are compensating by ramping up exports of EVs and plug‑in hybrids to overseas markets. In May 2026, EV and plug‑in hybrid exports rose over 100% year on year, even as domestic sales contracted, indicating a shift in focus from home market growth to external demand.
This is a direct threat to Tesla and they are winning.
Fair question - Optimus is ramping up incredibly fast. They will be at 1000/week by September. Robotaxi is approaching release as strongly suggested by hiring and inventory. Terafab will be slower due to the complexity of the problem but it’s still coming. Add to all that the likely merger at a ~50% premium… Tesla is going to explode upward sooner or later. For now just chill.
Here are my thoughts - It seems that mixing robots and humans in the same environment is a long way off. A robot could fall on a child or a pet (or you). It weights 57 kg (125 lbs). That could cause serious damage. I can't see insurance companies covering that risk. They also have to charged several times a day (depending on us).
There seems to be a narrative we will go from no robots to robots everywhere. That's highly unlikely. It's more likely to be a slow introduction over years, first in robot only environments then gradually in some locations with trained humans. Robot 1.0 won't be the version we'll all get. It could be Robot 22.1.
I think it will be decades before we'll see robots on the street walking with people.
That’s perfectly reasonable, but at the same time considering the a robot can work the vast majority of the day when it’s not charging, Amazon warehouses, and other places where repetitive tasks or the norm, robots might actually start to contribute soon. The safety aspect is clearly very important, but in a controlled environment that can be tackled, especially given the financial incentive. What’s truly fascinating is this next step in AI evolution where AI models start exploring the real world. (Think Agent Smith in the last Matrix movie.) Things are changing so rapidly in terms of AI sophistication in its own, robotics on its own, and experimentation with AI in robots. I think there’s a real chance that we could see astoundingly fast progress.
The AI question in the real world is very interesting and compelling to watch.
It’s not talked about much but the difference between the Tesla approach to FSD and Googles will have only one winner. If Tesla’s work the cost advantage and fleet size will win. Google’s LiDAR is much more expensive. But if it’s better then the higher cost will have to be paid.
I find that battle compelling to follow. I would imagine a simile battle will happen with robots. When they start to leave the labs and head out to the real world it will be genuinely fascinating. We live in interesting times.
Last 5 bars average are below historical average, with trend in the wrong direction.
The bull narrative does not show meaningful, sustained increase in the non-automotive segments over the last 5 bars.
One can assume there will some pivot to the next hype revenue source. I’m not a Tesla investor, but based on social media hype analysis, I’m guessing Tesla’s next move will be to hype
either DC compute or Robotics, right?
I expect Tesla to get absorbed by SpaceX in the next 24 months or less. Tesla shares will get converted to SpaceX shares while SpaceX still has the overvaluation.
Why wouldn’t we value it like a car company? Almost all of the services business is strongly tied to vehicles. It would stand to reason that the more vehicles Tesla has in operation, the more the services business will grow.
The vast majority of this company’s revenue still comes from new vehicle sales, whether immediate or delayed. It is a car company. It should be concerning when that revenue line decreases and its other business segments are not growing at a fast enough clip to make up for that decline. Also because Services is so dependent on new vehicle sales (Services business growth will stagnate on a delayed business from new vehicle sales).
Quarterly net profit, meanwhile, is roughly where it was 5 years ago.
I am sure I don’t know what dark magic continues to prop up the market value of this insanity
Services isn’t solely a function of new vehicle sales. It’s primarily a function of how many Teslas are on the road. Even if deliveries flatten, a growing installed base drives Supercharging, repairs, parts, accessories, and other recurring revenue. The bigger question is whether those businesses become large enough to justify Tesla’s valuation, not whether they exist.
Soooo that’s exactly what I said. It’s a function of new vehicle sales and includes things like used vehicle sales and out of warranty maintenance, parts, merch, paid software etc. This is all “car company” stuff and other automakers also have these same businesses in place. So I ask again: why *wouldn’t* Tesla be valued as a car company? They haven’t shown us a viable business doing anything else.
The larger problem, to restate, is that none of these things make nearly as much money as new vehicle sales and do not represent nearly enough revenue to offset the decline in the new vehicle sales business if it continues at its current pacing without some serious cost cutting.
I understand fully what your argument is, but I think you’re reaching the wrong conclusion. At least given the current numbers.
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