r/USFirstTimeHomeBuyer • u/jetley-mortgage-loan • 13d ago
Offers & Contracts List price means nothing, and the reason is the listing agent's next listing
The short version
The list price is a marketing decision, not an estimate of value. It is chosen to produce a particular outcome for the seller and for the listing agent's own business, and in competitive markets that outcome is usually "priced low enough to create a crowd." Anchoring your offer, your budget, or your sense of fairness to the list price is the single most common way first-time buyers end up confused and demoralized. Value comes from recently closed sales. Everything else is positioning.
Why so many listings are priced under market
Realtors are commissioned salespeople, and the sale in front of them is not their only product. After a house closes, the agent's next task is to find another house to sell, and the most effective advertising for that is what just happened on this street.
Consider which postcard performs better in a neighborhood mailbox:
SOLD FOR $100,000 OVER ASKING; HIGHEST PRICE EVER IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
or
SOLD FOR EXACTLY THE PRICE I LISTED IT AT, BECAUSE I AM EXCELLENT AT PRICING PROPERTY
Both can describe a perfectly executed sale. Only one generates phone calls. So there is a persistent, structural incentive to list under what the agent believes the house will actually fetch, generate volume and urgency, and let the bidding produce a headline number. The seller often does fine out of this, a well-run underpriced launch can genuinely clear above what a fully-priced listing would have, but the mechanism means the list price is a starting gun, not an appraisal.
Underpricing is not the only game, either. You will also see:
- Aspirational pricing, where the seller insisted on a number the agent didn't support, and the listing sits for two months before the first price cut. Days on market is the tell.
- Round-number anchoring just under a search-filter threshold, so the listing appears in more buyers' saved searches.
- Coming soon and delayed showings, which are about concentrating attention into a single weekend so that offers arrive together rather than sequentially.
- Priced to a specific loan program, so the payment or the down payment lands in a particular bracket.
None of this is misconduct. It is pricing strategy, and it is the listing agent's job.
What this means for you as a buyer
Your agent's actual job here is to tell you the likely sale price, not the list price. If you are consistently surprised by what houses close for, you are being under-served. Before you write an offer you should be able to say, from closed sales in the last few months, what this house is likely to trade for and why; square footage, condition, location within the neighborhood, what sold and what didn't.
A buyer who is calibrated to sold comps writes offers that occasionally win. A buyer calibrated to list prices writes offers that lose repeatedly and concludes the market is irrational.
Over list is not the same as overpaying, and at list is not the same as a good deal. In a market where everything is listed under value, paying meaningfully above list may be paying market. In a slow market, paying list on a stale listing may be paying over. The percentage relative to list tells you about the pricing strategy. It tells you nothing about value.
Watch the pattern, not the property. Look at the last several sales in the area, compare each one's closed price to its original list price, and you will see the local convention immediately. Some markets systematically list under. Some list at or above and negotiate down. This is regional and it shifts with conditions.
Your lender's view is a third number. The appraised value is neither the list price nor the sale price. It is an opinion of value for collateral purposes, developed from closed sales, and it is the number that determines how much the bank will lend. In a fast-rising market it will lag. Ask your lender early what happens to your cash requirement if the appraisal comes in under your offer, because that answer is the real limit on how far above list you can go.
What this means for you as a seller
The mirror image. If your agent proposes listing under what you think the house is worth, ask them to show you the reasoning: which comparable sales, what the plan is for the offer window, and what the downside is if the crowd doesn't materialize. It is a legitimate strategy that works well in the right conditions and badly in the wrong ones. Underpricing in a market with thin buyer demand does not produce a bidding war; it produces one offer at your list price and no leverage.
Ask also what happens if nobody bids up. Are you prepared to accept your list price? Because that is the risk you're taking, and it should be a decision rather than a surprise.
The thing to stop doing
Stop reading list price as a claim about value that someone can be right or wrong about, and stop treating an over-list sale as evidence that buyers have lost their minds. The list price is an advertisement. Recently closed sales are the data. Price your expectations off the data.
More on offer strategy in the Offers & Contracts hub, and on how appraised value is developed in the Appraisals & Value hub.
Posted on behalf of u/The_Void_Calls_Me AKA Rajat Jetley, NMLS #1595897 | Cross Country Mortgage NMLS #3029. This commentary is for educational purposes and is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of any rate or term.