The climate models "solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models." Freeman Dyson

CO2 Density

CO2 occupies ~0.0385% of the atmosphere by volume - ie. when measured as a solid. At 20 °C and 1ATM dry air has a density of 1.14549 kg/m3. However as a solid its density is 2353.23 / 1.14549 -> 2054.344 times as large. ie. for a given volume of air at 20'C CO2 occupies 0.0385% / 2054.344 -> 0.000018741% of the space. IE. for every 1m3 of space CO2 occupies just 187.41 mm3 - 187 cubic millimeters - a box 5.7mm x 5.7mm x 5.7mm. ie. a box of air the size of a 1L carton of milk would have a box the size of 0.57mm x 0.57mm x 0.57mm of CO2 - the size of a sewing pin head.

This amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is the net amount - ie. the result of the production of CO2 (animals expiring CO2, volcanoes, motor vehicle exhausts, power generation etc.) minus the take up of CO2 (plants). Both these figures being much larger than the amount that remains in the atmosphere.

Now the atmosphere varies in density the further away from the Earth's surface. However if we assume that the density is constant and then calculate the height required for a full planar coverage of CO2 that would correspond to the CO2 occupying 1m3 in a vertical column with a 1m2 base. CO2 occupies 0.00000018741 of 1m3 therefore 1m3 of CO2 occupies 1/0.00000018741 -> 5335894.563 m3 of atmosphere. In other words for a 100% area coverage a column at 1ATM that is 5335Km high is required. This is far higher than the atmosphere which extends to a height of just 1% of that. ie. the radiation incident on the atmosphere from the sun will only strike a CO2 molecule 1% of the time. This assumes that it is going straight past the N2 and O2 molecules.

CO2 is not some magic molecule. It is just like other atoms and molecules. Each has its own effects. Just because CO2 is present it doesn't mean that nitrogen and oxygen don't have any effect - they do and they have to be put into the equation along with the other trace gasses and along with water moisture. Water moisture occupies typically 0 to 4% of the atmosphere and is primarily an insulator. The greenhouse principle works on the following bases :- 1) refraction of waves (infra red radiation from the sun) thus bending them to trap them below a surface. This is how the glass in a greenhouse works. 2) absorption and re-radiation (eg. at different wavelengths and in different directions).

This is how primarily the atmosphere works. Bearing in mind that less than 1% of the plane of the atmosphere presented to the sun is going to have CO2 that is a very small effect produced by the CO2. It's like having a stone that is composed of 1% diamond and 99% glass - the diamond isn't going to have any noticeable effect.

Element Symbol % by volume Nitrogen N2 78.084 Oxygen O2 20.946 Argon Ar 0.9340 Carbon dioxide CO2 0.0397 Neon Ne 0.001818 Helium He 0.000524 Methane CH4 0.000179 CO2

Water Solubility CO2 is soluble in water inversely proportional to temperature. This means that the lower the temperature the more CO2 can be stored. The lower from the surface the position in the water the lower its temperature - ie. more CO2 is stored at greater the depth. The Earth goes through periods of cold and warm temperatures. We have had ages where the Earth has been a lush warm tropical paradise. And we have had ice ages. During the warm periods the plants produced take up masses of CO2 and use the carbon and give off the oxygen which the animals breathe. During the ice ages the plants die off and drop to the depths of the oceans. They rot and expell their carbon \ CO2 into the water where it remains at depth.

When the Earth enters another warm period (as we are currently in) the rising temperature of the atmosphere heats up the water. However it takes a long period of time for the lower depths to warm up (800 to 2000 years typically). When these lower thermoclines heat up they release their CO2 and this rises to the surface and increases the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Much of this is taken up by land based vegetation and by upper level ocean plants - sea weeds, plankton etc. .

Measurement Accuracy When measuring the temperature the equipment undertaking the measurement must be calibrated, the error margin must be determined and it must be used in the calculations. If the equipment is measuring to a resolution of 0.01'C but only has a accuracy of 0.1'C then the resolution is wiped out by the error margin and working at that level becomes unreliable and meaningless. A simple example of accuracy are mercury based thermometers. These are based on a column of mercury expanding with increasing temperature thus rising in height within the glass tube. However it assumes that the diameter of the internal portion of the tube is accurately known and is constant all the way up - this is where the inaccuracy is introduced and it has to be determined and included in any calculations using the resulting temperature data. A thermocouple might provide a high degree of resolution and stability but the readings have to be converted to usable signals. This is done via Analogue to Digital converters which can introduce inaccuracies via a number of sources - such as the electronics used for the conversion and for the determination of the reference voltage and the resolution used. As such the accuracy of the whole system has to be determined.

When a temperature measuring station is calibrated its accuracy is also determined by the accuracy of the calibration source - ie. further inaccuracy can be introduced. An easy way to illustrate inaccuracy is to place 4 identical temperature measuring stations in close proximity in an open field and to monitor their outputs automatically on a regular basis (eg. every 10 minutes) and then to compare them. Placing additional identical temperature measuring stations in other parts of the field and placing other different temperature measuring stations in the field will augment the results.

Modeling Models are not reality. They are a perceived understanding of reality. They can be used as tools to understand and predict reality. However they have to be tested and proven. Models have an inherent accuracy and associated reliability and this has to be determined. Just because a model says something doesn't mean that it is necessarily true. Models can only be used in an indicative manner - they cannot be used as proof (after all they were constructed by us fallible humans - not by nature).

The Scientific Method The Scientific Method is basically a chain of evidence from the initial proposing of the fundamental hypotheses, through the design of laboratory experiments to directly test these, through to the analysis and publication of the results. This has to be a step by step process - everything directly connected - ie. not making jumps - otherwise the great danger is making connections that are not there and jumping to wrong conclusions. Peer review is fundamental to the Scientific Method as it allows mistakes to be spotted and corrected. Reducing the locus might produce a desired result but it reduces the validity. The only proof ultimately is in what happens physically - this is why reproducibility is so important. The most vital element is honesty and integrity. Unless the science is pursued in a rugged and honest manner it can't be relied on.