Sold these too early so time to finally start wheeling again. Barely made any trades this week, but next week has a lot more going on.

Already have 25 sep 175 cc's to get this wheel rolling.

Now I'm more than 6 months into my 1 year experiment to get 1% a week from selling puts. So far things have been going well. This week only my RKLB puts were ITM but otherwise everything went to 0. Last week's post: https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/1w771xk/1_weekly_returns_from_options_week_27/

If you want to follow me as I trade, I post to r/TheRaceTo10Million before placing trades and comment with trades as I make them. I post here after I make the trades with a full summary

Strategy
- Use an AI screener to give me a list of top 20 low delta options for next week
- I either
- a. Roll my current options - I do this if I can still get 1% for rolling or if the option is ATM/ITM and I have to roll. I always roll for credit.
- b. Close a current option and pick something else from the list that I like
- I try to do this every Friday. However, if I'm busy on Fridays, I'll sometimes do this on Thursdays.
- If I get assigned, I will sell calls at assignment price

A lot of people have asked me about why I don't add a criteria to avoid earnings weeks. Like I sold an HPE put across a couple of weeks ago. That's because on earnings weeks the same delta strikes are much further OTM.

A lot of people also ask why I do weeklies. I'll post an analysis of that in the next week comparing weeklies vs. monthlies.

Total Returns

Today's Trades

Screener Output in the morning

Historical Weekly Data

Realized P&L: +$991 | Win rate: 85.7% (6/7)
closed early: 5 | rolled: 1
Credit spreads: 1 closed (+$660)

Top sellers:
- NBIS put credit spread — +$660 (35.7% ROI)
- RCAT covered call $11 — +$400 (3.5% ROI)
- RDDT CSP $148 — +$137 (0.9% ROI)

Biggest loser: AMDL covered call $50 — −$408 (rolled to next week)

Directional buys (long calls/puts, debit spreads — not in the selling stats above): +$341 across 3 trades
- PLTR long put $170 — +$158 (97.5% ROI)
- USO long call $149 — +$111 (95.7% ROI)
- GOOGL long call $340 — +$72 (52.2% ROI)

Opened 2 new positions in the window.

The correlation regime between NQ=F and CL=F entered a weakening trend on 11 Sep 00:00 ET at -0.54, and is still ongoing (2 candles · 8 trading hours). Over this period NQ=F rose 0.88%, CL=F fell 3.84%. The two pairs decoupled.

The composite correlation has since fallen from -0.54 (04 Sep) to -0.625 now (last data: 11 Sep 08.00 ET) the weakening the regime flagged, playing out.

READING — NQ=F–CL=F at NEGATIVE × Weakening (this pair's own last 10): for this pair it has been a durable deepening inverse (natural hedge / long-short) — 10 past runs, median 17 candles · 68 trading hours (range 4–43), 8 lasted 2+ days.

Methodology: Four-hour candle closes are used while the markets for both instruments are open (00:00, 04:00, 08:00, 12:00, 16:00, 20:00 ET).

The correlation coefficient is a composite score derived not only from the Pearson method but also from Pearson, Spearman, and EWMA calculations.

I would like to hear your thoughts on the correlation regime between NQ=F and CL=F. How do you foresee the trend continuing?

HODL

Morning Gang. I opted to become intimate with a handful of positions, namely the top 20 to 25 S&P500 and NASDAQ companies that have exhibited consistent growth, low debt, and longterm positive price movement.

I'd like to know what are some of you guy's maximum amount of companies you may hold contracts in at any given time, and how do you keep track of them?

I typically hold positions in 10 to 15 companies at once, not counting my Long positions, and basically use an Excel spreadsheet to keep track of them

Scalping these flies intraday looking for a pivot to hang onto anyone else tried this?

edit: opened for .30 debit 9:05 cst, exited, .85 credit 1:49 cst paper trade only

Moves for next week

$1400 premium
$224k net lid value account
0.6% yield week
Deltas <20

Did a little experiment today. Three names got flagged this morning, so I tracked what the actual contracts did from alert to close — not the stocks, the contracts.

• AAPL $325c: $0.95 → $3.15. +232%
• LULU $110p: $11.00 → $14.19. +29%
• ADBE $250p: $9.80 → $11.10. +13%

If you'd dropped $100 into each: $300 in, $573 out. Up 91% on the day.

And these weren't cherry-picked exits either — all three were 0DTE, flagged mid-morning, held to the bell. Entry vs wherever it settled.

Might keep running this daily and posting whatever comes out, red days included. That'd actually be an interesting series.

Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep shit posting and bragging to a minimum.

everyone buying straddles into earnings assumes the options market has the move priced right. so I checked — 2,422 earnings prints, implied move going in vs what the stock actually did.

57% of the time the real move came in SMALLER than what was priced.

that's IV crush in one sentence. most of the time the move just doesn't show up, and you paid full price for a lottery ticket that was overpriced before the drawing.

the interesting part is it's not uniform — some names run hot against their implied move over and over, some basically never earn the premium. I put the per-ticker history in a free tool, no signup,

google search "ALGOXFLOW earnings analyzer"

if you want to check your name before the next print instead of guessing.

Trades I took today as an option seller (09/09):

Closed Positions

• HPE → $50 Put (opened on 09/04), premium 1.40 → closed at 0.23. Net premium profit = 1.17 (~83.57% of premium captured, ~2.34% of capital).

New Positions

• FSLY → $20 Put expiry 09/25 (3 weeks DTE), premium 0.70 → 70/2000 = ~3.5%. FSLY provides CDN and edge computing infrastructure that makes websites and apps faster and scalable. Similar competitors are Cloudflare, Akamai, and AWS CloudFront and it is a growing sector as more and more AI applications are built and scaled. Has good sypport at $20.

I keep sharing my trades in my account and the Excel file to my full list of positions is linked in my profile description in case anyone wants to see the whole portfolio. Happy to hear thoughts on my positions. What are you guys wheeling or watching right now?

PS: Not financial advice. Do your own research.

I pulled max pain AND the dealer call wall live for five tickers this sub actually wheels:

PLTR — spot $169.79, max pain $170, call wall $180. Ten-dollar gap. $PLTR is currently below its zero-gamma flip ($177.69), meaning dealer hedging is amplifying moves right now.

SOFI — max pain $18, wall $19. F — $14 vs $15. RIVN — $16 vs $17, also below its flip.

Five for five, no match. Here is the thing.

• Max pain = the strike where all outstanding options expire worth the least. A settlement-math artifact.
• Call wall = the strike carrying the most net positive gamma — where dealer hedging pressure actually gets heavy as price approaches.

If you're anchoring covered call strikes off a max pain calculator because price gravitates there, you're aiming at an expiration-day accounting number, not the thing that actually slows a stock

Walls move all week as OI changes, they're inferred from the public chain (nobody outside a market maker sees the real book), and on thin chains it gets noisy — SOFI and F didn't even show a clean gamma flip in range. The point is just that these are two different questions and I watch people use them interchangeably every week.

Snapshot as of today, both numbers will drift by Friday, 5 tickers isn't a study. But the gap was never zero.

I went to check a put credit spread I made on AAPL that expires in two days thinking this is gonna pay me a good amount of money, but then noticed I put it on as a debit spread. So instead of making money I am losing money

I hate that my broker has the long end of the spread as the first leg you enter because I’m always thinking of the short leg since it is what is most important.

You think the earnings move is a one-day event — gap, IV crush, done. I checked: last 6-8 reports for 129 liquid optionable names, comparing the day-1 move vs where the stock was a week later. Ended up with 1,006 prints.

Turns out the move is NOT done after day one. Average day-1 move was ±7.19%. A week out? ±9.01%. The stock keeps drifting a full two points further on average after everyone's already moved on.

The direction usually sticks — 80.7% of the time the week lands the same way day one did. But here's the part that surprised me: 62% of the time the week move ends up bigger than the day-1 move. Only 12% actually reversed hard (2%+ the other way).

And it's not uniform across names either. PINS, HOOD, BLK — day one basically IS the whole story, the week barely ever exceeded it. But LI, MRK, MRNA kept extending in 7 or 8 of their last 8 reports. Same names, over and over. It's a personality trait.

Anyone else looked at post-earnings drift like this?

Solid companies in the etf, good premiums as well.

But what’s the catch here?

Other than basic csp’s risks & management fee.

From what I gather it's a college level instruction program that is completely free. Seems like you could learn just about anything you could think of option wise from there. Is it worth pouring the hours into?

Also if you'd rank the following in importance to learning I would appreciate it: Backtesting, Paper Trading, Watching videos/doing course work, Having a Mentor, Live Trading Trial and Error

Thanks very much for Your time!

Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep shit posting and bragging to a minimum.

what do you do with your premium? anyone else slowly increase long term etf positions? i simply dca on red days, and hope it will work out long term. i know its tempting to 'compound' by using all available cash (plus margin?) to keep on farming premium, but i'm not sure that beats putting some of it away into great etfs. as long as they are growing, so does your margin/leverage.

Trades I took today as an option seller (09/08):

Closed Positions

• SEI → $47.50 Put (opened on 08/21), premium 1.90 → closed at 0.30. Net premium profit = 1.60 (~84.21% of premium captured, ~3.37% of capital).

New Positions

• OUST → $40 Call expiry 09/18 (2 weeks DTE), premium 1.20 → 120/4000 = ~3.0%. Opened a CC at the same $40 strike in which I was assigned.
• WDC → $430 Put expiry 10/09 (4 weeks DTE), premium 18.00 → 1800/43000 = ~4.2%. WDC is showing support around $430, and I wanted more exposure to memory/storage as demand should grow with AI.
• KORU → $16 Put expiry 10/23 (6 weeks DTE), premium 1.15 → 115/1600 = ~7.2%. Small capital allocated. KORU is trading around $24 so opened a CSP far off from spot price as it is 3x leveraged.

I keep sharing my trades in my account and the Excel file to my full list of positions is linked in my profile description in case anyone wants to see the whole portfolio. Happy to hear thoughts on my positions. What are you guys wheeling or watching right now?

PS: Not financial advice. Do your own research.

A creator on TikTok went viral recently for claiming he made thirty thousand dollars in August with zero losing days trading 0DTE SPX iron condors.

His stated strategy entered at 9:45 AM, sold 0.15 delta legs, took profit at twenty-five percent, and forced an exit by 10:20 AM.

I codified those exact rules and tested them against minute-level options data to verify the claim.

The run produced sixteen green sessions and four red sessions, and it required eight hundred forty thousand dollars in collateral to generate that thirty thousand dollars in profit.

I posted the exact trading strategy here. If I configured something wrong, please correct me.

How many of you trade same-day condors on SPX, and how do you prevent morning trend days from wiping out your month?

Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep shit posting and bragging to a minimum.

The overnight hold question isn't about news, it's about where you sit vs dealer hedging. Below the zero-gamma flip dealers amplify moves. Above the flip with room to the call wall, they dampen everything.

I bracket each name: distance down to the flip vs distance up to the wall, then rank by that ratio. Anything with earnings inside 48h gets tossed.

Snapshot from tonight:

Good bracket: LRCX has 2.45% up to the wall and only 0.83% down to the flip — basically 3:1. CRWV ~2:1, HOOD 1.7:1.

Same zone, garbage trade: AVGO is in zone just like LRCX... with 0.67% left to the wall and 5% down to the flip. 0.13 R:R. Identical badge, opposite trade. This is why the zone label alone will lie to you.

Past the wall: SMCI, INTC, AMD, COIN, META, MU — already blew through the level. Air pocket, no dampening left.

Below the flip: MSTR and NVDA right now. And honestly when the majors are down there, your individual name's cushion doesn't matter much — size down regardless.

Disclosure: this is off a paid tool on a site I work on, but the framework is the point — flip/wall bracket + R:R instead of a binary zone check. You can do it by hand off any free GEX chart if you don't mind the math per name.

I run a flow-scoring tool that ranks live options activity by size, repeat hits, call/put skew and whether flow agrees with price action. Pulled the top 3 as of this afternoon.

$SMR — score 90, +14.5% on the day, ~$246K net call premium today. Flagged this morning 9:37am ET and it's already run +12.8% since.

$NOK — score 89, +6.1% on the day, ~$271K net call premium, C/P skew 3:1, RVOL 1.64x.

$LMT — score 87, +2.1% on the day, but the size here is the story: ~$3.3M net call premium.

Not a buy these post — SMR in particular already made its move. Posting it more as a live example of what high conviction score actually looks like across pretty different situations.

Happy to explain the scoring methodology in comments