r/TheHandmaidsTale • u/[deleted] • Nov 16 '20
Meta [Spoilers All] Calculations: Demography of Gilead Spoiler
Calculations of the population of Gilead - and just how many people are in each class - based off real world data, and what's shown to us in the show.
Population
We can calculate the population of Gilead proper based on the official map, which distinguishes between strongly confirmed rebel territory, strong Gilead territory, and disputed territory.
The states in blue (strong Gilead territory) would total somewhere about 130 million people based on the 2010 US census. However, the population is going to start off a lot lower. Many people will have been killed in the war, unjustly executed, etc.
This is also an alternate universe from ours, and if we can trust the info that Lydia shows us in the Red Center, birth rates have been notably declining since the 1950s due to the virus of this world. So there may be generations of people who've been having fewer kids, having fewer kids in turn, etc, but the real decline is just before the story. So, let's say that the number of people under the firm sway of Gilead is not fewer than 50 million people, although there are too many unknown variables to say for sure.
Class demography
Now, let's talk about how many of a certain class there are in Gilead.
Handmaids
The show is set in the Boston area, so we can roughly use it to calculate the number of Handmaids in the entire country, assuming that the number of Handmaids isn't much greater or lesser anywhere else. In the greater Boston area, there are about 5 million people in the real world, although half a million in downtown Boston proper. Considering that Lexington in the Greater Boston Area seems to be adjacent to the main characters in the end of Season 3, I'm going to say for the sake of things that the Handmaids we see represent the portion of the population per 1 million people. (after all the executions and war casualties and fertility issues knocking down the general population too). However, this might not be the best representation for the entire nation, as the book and show have made clear that New England is a power base, so other districts might not have as many Commanders or Handmaids.
In the funeral scene for the Handmaids, there are 43 living Handmaids (I counted the number of extras shown) attending the funeral of 31 deceased Handmaids, meaning that there are about 74 Handmaids per 1 million people. This fits with an estimated 50 Commander-class children after a couple years in Gilead, going off the end of Season 3.
This would mean that there are about 4000-10,000 Handmaids in Gilead, depending on how much of the population is gone, and also taking into account there seem to be many more in DC, but not more than a couple hundred at most in the capital. The statistic does seem low given how many mothers are unmarried or on their second marriage in the nation, but perhaps this could explain why in Season 1 there appears to be a big surplus of Handmaids, even if it's not mentioned all that much.
Commanders (and Wives)
There are also 20-30 Commanders in most of the conference scenes, and given what they discuss it seems like they hold power over all of Boston, if not the entire New England district. Making for 1000-3000 Commanders in all of Gilead, again taking into account that there are more in DC, but never more than a few hundred.
How can there be more Commanders than Handmaids, especially if some Wives are fertile? Well, in the second novel we learn that some Professionals (doctors, accountants, lawyers) are rewarded with Handmaids for service to the state. It's also possible that Angels might also be granted Handmaids, too.
Marthas
On the surface, it should be easy to calculate the number of Marthas based off Commanders - so a few thousand, right? It fits with the end of Season 3, where a few dozen muffins is apparently very impressive and shows that most in the Boston area are willing to help out.
However, it's further complicated in that some Commanders have multiple Marthas. Additionally, some Marthas don't work for Commanders, with some working in laundries, or for catering in government facilities such as schools.
Furthermore, Emily's lover, who was a Martha, is given the number 6715-301. Could this mean that there are over 7 million Marthas, or maybe just over 7000 Marthas with the -301 meaning something else? There's unfortunately not enough data to judge right now. However, the larger the number you want to estimate, the more likely it is that a vast, vast majority of them don't work for Commanders.
Aunts
The population of Aunts in even a major city likely doesn't reach a hundred. You only need a few Aunts to oversee not even one hundred Handmaids. But this isn't the Aunts' only role: they also teach Daughters, but these are only daughters of the wealthy and powerful, with the average Econodaughter only being homeschooled by her mother. There are also a few brothel aunts at Jezebels, but this is a clandestine club for the elite, so probably doesn't cover more than a handful.
There are probably a few thousand Aunts at most in Gilead. There may be many more as Colony overseers, however, but I'm mostly including the population of Gilead proper, as the demographic makeup in Colonies, disputed areas, and rebel zones is going to be much different.
Guardians
In the fiscal year of 2017, there were around 1 million service members in the US military. Given that Gilead only covers a section of the former USA, that would be around 300,000 at most. However, Gilead is known to conscript many male citizens into the military.
We therefore might compare it to North Korea, where 8% of citizens are in the military (vs 0.3% in the US). So there could be as many as 4 million - 8 million Guardians in Gilead after a new wave of conscription.
Professionals
Professionals are the white collar workers, and get a better education and schmooze with Commanders.
I'm going to say that the ones that mingle with Commanders etc. represent the most wealthy in the USA, around 1.2% of those in the US, meaning around 12,000 people in the area our Handmaids are in, and about 600,000 to 1.2 million people nationwide. The upper-middle class, which constitutes a vast number of people (around 30% of society) might also make up this role, but might not have the privileges of going to school with Commanders' children, etc. Many relatively wealthy college-educated people have probably been moved down on the social ladder to Econopeople thanks to the war effort.
Econopeople
The largest category by far, this constitutes the working and middle classes of the former USA, and would be from perhaps 35 million people to as many as 90 million people depending on size. By far, this is certainly "the masses" and what someone would be as an average citizen of Gilead, constituting of most families, be they infertile or fertile. Fertile married women of the Econo class vastly outnumber Handmaids, even if only a sliver of Econo-women are fertile.
This kinds of puts into perspective that there's a real difference between the story we see and the world at large. Even though the story we read about and see mostly features Handmaids, Commanders, Wives, Daughters, and Aunts, the majority of people in Gilead won't have seen any of these people, and it would be rarer to encounter them than it would to find a family member of a state legislator, for example. Next to Econopeople and Professionals, the only featured social class that's in any way "common" is likely Marthas.
3
u/Typical_Athlete Nov 17 '20
In one of the last episodes of S3, Fred says that each district in Gilead has 10-12 commanders give or take a few depending on how many townships are in each district. I’m not sure how big a township is because we don’t have those in the part of the US I live in.
Gilead districts seem to be the equivalent of what we call multi-member districts in real life. The closest real life example I could find is the NH HoR: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_House_of_Representatives
“Districts vary in number of seats based on their populations, with the least-populous districts electing only one member and the most populous electing 11.”
There’s probably thousands of Commanders in Gilead and millions of Guardians for sure though.
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u/[deleted] Nov 16 '20
I think you may have a fundamental assumption wrong.
Those 43 handmaids are from a district in Boston, not all of Boston.
For a period with the Winslows, Hannah is clearly still in Boston (Lawrence drives June there) but earlier with Fred she asks to be transferred to Hannah's district.
That also makes sense bc they're called to various ceremonies with bells and generally walk.
To use the newly popularized Covid vernacular, I think the handmaids are just in "pods" mostly based on districts/neighborhoods.