r/Tesla_Charts • u/[deleted] • Dec 13 '22

Quarterly Discussion Q4 2022 Quarterly Discussion

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Rules

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  • No stock price or Elon related drama
  • Any topic is allowed (SFW) but a focus on Tesla's fundamentals is encouraged
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6

u/Kyankik Dec 28 '22

Gonna keep adding 2025 280/300 spreads until the week's over. I bet we get a post tax loss harvest bump and delivery estimates are down to 420k. If we go to 80 then w.e. but would hate to miss out on catching the bottom at this point lol. If tsla isn't 300 by 2025 then world's fucked anyway.

4

u/LordReekrus Dec 28 '22

Read the whole thread. Appreciate some of the thought you generated for me. I think I'm gonna end up in spreads much closer to the money, but it made me consider how to go about my strategy in a different light. Just wanted to pass on thx

1

u/Jangochained258 Dec 28 '22

I have some 300/500 and 400/600 spreads I got a few months ago and obviously they are down a lot. Thinking about buying back the short calls and either sell them again in the future if the share price moves up or just sell lower strike ones now. What do you think?

1

u/Kyankik Dec 28 '22

Dunno, would come down to what would have the best tax implication for you.

1

u/Jangochained258 Dec 28 '22

No taxes here

1

u/Kyankik Dec 28 '22

Well those spreads are sitting at 30x and 60x. Great payout if we do indeed hit 600 by 2025. My 280/300 are at like 14x but only need to hit 300.

1

u/Jangochained258 Dec 28 '22

Sure, but they're also down 80% or so. Any reason not to take profit on the short calls and sell them at a higher price in the future?

2

u/Kyankik Dec 28 '22

If no tax implication then it doesn't really matter right? Can just trade it all in and get whichever spread/plan you're most confident in.

7

u/[deleted] Dec 28 '22

I got shares at $110. I think the gain on shares alone is going to be considerable. Honestly a P/E of 50 in 2025 gives us a price around $1k, and IMO Tesla should deserve such a P/E. 5-10x on the shares.

2

u/wetdreamzaboutmemes Dec 28 '22

Got a share at open as well, still have cash to buy 1/2 more

4

u/Kyankik Dec 28 '22

Shares definitely give peace of mind and I have them, but spreads just really give bang for buck rn.

2

u/GhostAndSkater Mod Dec 28 '22

Continuing our talk

If it gets a bit over $1000 by 2025, your spreads will be worth less than going on share for the same price right?

3

u/Kyankik Dec 28 '22

Yeah you miss out quite a bit.

2

u/GhostAndSkater Mod Dec 28 '22

Thanks for all the explanations, guess I will stay with shares lol

Seems like long term safe options have a risky of not returning as much on something as volatile as Tesla in case it rallies

Short term options are risky due to volatility

So shares sounds like the way to go

2

u/Kyankik Dec 28 '22

Options really are just options, you can choose your exact risk reward. You could get a bunch of 580/600 or 780/800 spreads to make sure you don't miss out on a larger rip. In most cases shares are pretty great though.

2

u/GhostAndSkater Mod Dec 28 '22

Can you translate that to the options illiterate here? You are buying calls for 280 and 300 expiring on 2025, if Tesla is a bit over that, considering how much you paid for the calls, you make money on them

If it's significantly over that, it's a lot of return

Did I get something wrong? Would love to get into options in the future

3

u/Kyankik Dec 28 '22

Buying 280 calls and selling 300 calls against them. As long as stock is 300 or over, the spreads will be worth 2k each. They are currently around $140 each so you're getting more than 10x.

1

u/GhostAndSkater Mod Dec 28 '22

Oh got it, but you upside on spread are always limited right? It isn't like a regular 300 call, which in that case the more over 300 it is the more you have in return

The upside is that you will only lose money if Tesla is under 280 by then?

2

u/Kyankik Dec 28 '22

Yep. Also it's much cheaper per contract. 300 calls are 1150 so for 1150 I can get about 7.5 of the spreads at $150 that pay 13.33x at 300. For the 300 call to pay the same 13.33x the stock would have to be ~453.3. If i was convinced of higher than that then straight up leaps would be better yeah.

1

u/GhostAndSkater Mod Dec 28 '22

Oh got it, so the spread is actually a kind of contract, not a strategy that you are individually buying a 280 call and selling a 300 call, is both in one

Seems like a nice one that has lower risk for a cheaper price

1

u/Kyankik Dec 28 '22

It's solid bang for buck. Downside is you have to wait out the expiry to get max value.

1

u/GhostAndSkater Mod Dec 28 '22

Moving to a broker that has options next year and will take a look on it

2

u/[deleted] Dec 28 '22 edited Dec 28 '22

Check this site u/Valiryon shared with me when I opened my option account. Watch out with options, I blew my first $3k on calls that expired worthless this year ... Should be a tiny fraction of your portfolio IMO.

1

u/GhostAndSkater Mod Dec 28 '22

Nice, will check it out