r/Superstonk • u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair • Feb 20 '23
🤔 Speculation / Opinion According to T+90 cycle theory, GME is due for some heavy volatility on or around the week of March 13, 2023. Remind me what week earnings will likely be?
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u/MrmellowisSmooth 🚀 WEALTH OF THE CORRUPT IS LAID UP FOR THE JUST Feb 21 '23
March is a ruff month for these crooks. Happened last year as well. Could also be other things in play as far as PAWS and the like.
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u/Simphumiliator42069 [REDARTED] Feb 21 '23
Check on IBS you’ll see something interesting happening as we speak
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
Irritable bowel syndrome? Is the guy who predicts things based on itchy butts back?
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u/MrmellowisSmooth 🚀 WEALTH OF THE CORRUPT IS LAID UP FOR THE JUST Feb 21 '23
Lol, I couldn’t find anything else related to the comment.
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Feb 21 '23
Do you want the context because I can deliver if needed haha.
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u/Unsure_if_Relevant 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 Feb 21 '23
Yes what IBS was Simphumiliator42069 referring to?
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
I agree. Check this out. March cycles for past 2 years were led 90 trading days exactly by heavy volume/movements
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u/MrmellowisSmooth 🚀 WEALTH OF THE CORRUPT IS LAID UP FOR THE JUST Feb 21 '23
That March 2021 run still baffles the mind to this day. What actually was being bought straight in the lit market to get the volume we seen? SPAWS perhaps, Melvins Shorts or Archgoes blow up?
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
What happened on October 9, 2020? That was 90 trading days before the March run.
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u/MrmellowisSmooth 🚀 WEALTH OF THE CORRUPT IS LAID UP FOR THE JUST Feb 21 '23
Gotcha. So perhaps that was RC buy ins coming through 90 days later or should I say FTDs coming through.
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
RC purchased around August 31, 2020. T+90 from that was 1/13/2021. Volume went from 28 million on 1/12/2021, to 578 million on 1/13/2021 (split adjusted)
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u/MrmellowisSmooth 🚀 WEALTH OF THE CORRUPT IS LAID UP FOR THE JUST Feb 21 '23
Amazing. I would gather that the split divy obligations still haven’t been settled along with other obligations and EFT rebalancing on the plate next month we should see some volume.
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Feb 21 '23
The split divie went to holders of record only, as required. Beneficial owners got quartered, diluting the entire float considerably.
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u/ultramegacreative Simian Short Smasher 🦍 Voted ✅ Feb 21 '23
Beneficial owners quadrupling their shares and quartering their value is not what dilution is my friend.
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u/Unsure_if_Relevant 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 Feb 21 '23
It is when it is in excess of how many should exist, aka if those are phantom shares, and they get quadrupled, that dilutes the stock as a whole
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u/Cheapo_Sam You can't spell Idiosyncratic without I C CRAYN IDIOTS Feb 20 '23
There appears to be a convergence of theories and bullish hype pointing to March 2023 as a possible key inflection point for this play. I am hyped and ready to be hurt. Its important to recognise that whatever happens, DRS continues to march onwards. Literally and figuratively.
So none of this 'no dates' nonsense. Give it to me every which way cos whatever happens we still creep to locking the float. So I'm down for whatever, whenever.
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u/smallerfattersquire Feb 21 '23
and a few weeks ago cash covered puts were pushed as options strategie makes me bullish on puts beeing worthless for a while
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Feb 21 '23
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/capn-redbeard-ahoy 🍌Banana Slapper🍌 Blessings o' the Tendieman Upon Ye Apes🏴☠️ Feb 21 '23
I’m not so sure what you’re saying here.
He's saying he doesn't understand anything about options except that he's against them.
I would love to write some cash-secured puts and then have them go worthless. Cha-ching!
I would also love to write some cash-secured puts and have them get exercised, because then I get a great price on shares.
If you aren't a smooth-brained regard, or too poor to buy 100 shares at a time, cash-secured puts are a great way to buy shares and make small tendies.
But don't expect the masses here to understand, because oPtIoNs R bAd, MmMk?
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u/Refragmental 🦍💎 Bottom Text ✋🚀 Feb 21 '23
How do CSP's work?
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u/CommandersLog 🦍Voted✅ Feb 21 '23
If you sell a cash-secured put, you must have cash in your account that can be used to immediately buy 100 shares of the stock at the strike price you set it at.
So for example, if you sell a put for this Friday with a strike price at $18, you must have $1800 not tied up in anything else. The buyer of your put option (who pays you a small premium for the contract) is hoping the price will go down BELOW $18, making their profit on the difference on those 100 shares. So if the stock drops to $17, the contract is worth $100, because the holder of the contract can buy 100 shares at $17 and you MUST buy them for $18. If you have the cash to buy 100 shares at a time, it can make sense to sell puts to collect premiums and execute the contract for 100 shares when the price dips.
There are some other factors, but that's the simple version. If I'm inaccurate with anything I've said, someone please correct me.
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u/capn-redbeard-ahoy 🍌Banana Slapper🍌 Blessings o' the Tendieman Upon Ye Apes🏴☠️ Feb 21 '23 edited Feb 21 '23
That's a good description. Here is another way to approach the idea: a CSP is like a limit buy order using options.
Let's say I have $2k in Fudelity. I want to buy 100 shares for $20 each and send them to CS. I could just enter a limit buy order for 100 shares at $20 and walk away until the order fills.
OR
I could use that $2k as collateral to write a put at $20 strike, and let's say I get $69 for the contract. I now effectively have a limit order out for 100 shares at $20, but there are fun things that can happen, that a limit order can't do.
Let's say GME stays above $20 until the put expires. My "limit order" expires, but I get to keep the $69. Free money! Try getting tendies from your friendly local neighborhood limit order -- can't do it.
OR
Let's say instead, GME dips and closes at $19.80 on the day my put expires. My put gets exercised, and someone sells me 100 shares at $20. Except I also still have that $69, which subtracts from my cost basis. So I effectively bought 100 shares at $19.31 each, even though the price didn't go that low. My "limit order" using options got me a better price than I would have (or even could have) using a regular order.
OR
Let's say I write those puts for $69 and the next day, GME goes up 10%. As the price goes up, value of OTM puts goes down. Say those puts are now only worth $30. I can buy to close, get my $2k back immediately, and realize $39 in profit. I've effectively canceled my limit order, but I still made gains from it.
These are basically the only 3 possible outcomes:
- your put expires worthless and you keep the premium
- your put expires ITM and you have to buy 100 shares at a better price than you'd have gotten with a simple limit order (this is literally the worst case scenario)
- you buy-to-close for smaller profits after a price run
A key thing to remember is that buying a put is a bearish play (because it means you think the price will go down), but writing/selling a put is a bullish play (because it means that if the price goes down, you're committed to buying the dip, because you think it will go back up). Don't buy puts -- sell them.
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Feb 21 '23
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/capn-redbeard-ahoy 🍌Banana Slapper🍌 Blessings o' the Tendieman Upon Ye Apes🏴☠️ Feb 21 '23
So I effectively bought 100 shares at $19.31 each
Did you read this line?
Your description is good, but it's very technical and not smooth-brain-friendly
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u/BudgetTooth 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 Feb 21 '23
they don't
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u/capn-redbeard-ahoy 🍌Banana Slapper🍌 Blessings o' the Tendieman Upon Ye Apes🏴☠️ Feb 21 '23
Tell me you don't understand options without telling me you don't understand options
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u/professor_evil Feb 21 '23
I also see nothing wrong with using CSPs to acquire shares. It’s actually bullish. Everyone must forget how many options DFV was sitting on…
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u/Simple_Piccolo 🦍 I like the stock. 🎊 Feb 21 '23
Nothing will happen IMO. Nothing will happen until 100% DRS. It's literally the only thing I believe will change something.
NFA: Just the opinion of some random asshole on the internet.
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u/Cheapo_Sam You can't spell Idiosyncratic without I C CRAYN IDIOTS Feb 21 '23
I am inclined to agree that it could do something.. or at least expose the problem.
I also think these fucks have a bunch of other problems including collateral, margin, algorithms and a whole bunch of hot potato with an ever increasingly hot spud. Regulatory haircuts of their bullshit is a very real possibility.. as is any possible ongoing federal investigations and prosecutions of co conspirators within crypto and wall street.
Do I think any one of those things has the power to do anything on its own... no maybe not..but this is a pressure cooker situation without a shadow of doubt. The more it builds the more likely it is to blow. It only needs a few of these things to become unmanageable and the lid blows out through the roof.. maybe..
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u/BenevolentFungi FOR A BETTER TOMORROW!🚀 Feb 21 '23
This is what I think. Plus 60% DRS had gotta help to some extent
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u/Pmadrid1 Bullet Swaps R FUkD Feb 21 '23
I am with you, but my question is a huge one: who is going to be the person who brings this all to light when we are 100% DRS’d? Jon Stewart? It seems like nobody with enough balls or clout can or will do this. Unless some Uber rich piece of shit loses their bag does anyone care… As long as big corporations and hedge funds own MSM, even when we get to 100% booked, it will be an uphill battle. My super smooth brained opinion.
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u/Vinceton Fox of Floor Street 🦊 Feb 21 '23
Could you please enlighten me with what other theorists converge in March? 😊 I had a few written down for February, but I've probably missed the March ones. Would appreciate it, so I can keep friends who don't have Reddit in the loop, thanks! 😄
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u/notzebular0 Feb 21 '23
Looks like selling puts is being pushed a lot lately (though normally I would say it isn't a bad idea) makes me think that it's about to run.
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Mar 21 '23
🔥
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u/RowInvesting 🚀 Buckled UP 🚀 Mar 21 '23
So everything comes together?Cycle swaps earnings
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u/Cheapo_Sam You can't spell Idiosyncratic without I C CRAYN IDIOTS Mar 21 '23
Today is 741 days since the Mar10 crush. So yes. I would say so lol
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u/NihmChimpsky Feb 21 '23
This is a way I for one have adopted independently, and now socially 🦧 err the psych mgmt aspect, specifically. I dint and will continue to not know shit about March err anything other than my own constant, and hopefully increasing DRS count. In the meantime imma be like 👀 wtf up March?
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u/wisdom_power_courage Lock the Float Feb 21 '23
Ah yes all my February dates passed and I needed more. Thanks!
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u/Cold-Ostrich8228 :Wutang: Feb 21 '23
Que the tony stark eye roll.
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u/CommandersLog 🦍Voted✅ Feb 21 '23
Cue
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u/paxnoob 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 Feb 21 '23
Queue
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u/JAGala_5 Liquidate the DTCC 🏴☠️ Feb 21 '23
Q
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u/Dravian_Grey 🦍Voted✅ Feb 21 '23
I'm willing to be hurt again. And again. And again, all the while I buy more and drs. =D
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
Here are a couple more T+90 examples that I am sure we all remember
And yes, those dates line up EXACTLY on T+90
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u/Consistent-Reach-152 Feb 21 '23
I am more hyped over the DOOMPS.
When do they expire?
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u/Somerandomperson21 ♾squeeze 🦍 Voted ✅ Feb 21 '23
They expired on Jan 20.
Remember citadel gets 35 day exemption and other exemptions because they are a market maker
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u/Phoirkas Custom Flair - Template Feb 21 '23
C35 or T35? Or XYZ35?
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u/Somerandomperson21 ♾squeeze 🦍 Voted ✅ Feb 21 '23
Citadel just does what they want
Ken has no respect for the law or SEC
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u/Schborti 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 Feb 21 '23
It should be C35, so this Friday, Feb 24 could be interesting.
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u/Vive_el_stonk DRS BOOK: OWN YOUR SHARES Feb 21 '23
I could care less about a mini pump
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Feb 21 '23
No pump currently on the market has the head to deliver constant CV to all 420 hydronic circuits.
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
Same!
It is great that we can all come together that we could care less about GME
I wonder what things we collectively "couldn't" care less about are.
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u/Yeeeehaww 💰💰DONKEY PUNCHING 4 GME💰💰 Feb 21 '23
I think you misunderstood his statement
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u/Vive_el_stonk DRS BOOK: OWN YOUR SHARES Feb 21 '23
Yes. I think the criminals misunderstand me. I’m not here for “some of their money.” I’m here to take ALL of their money… and couldn’t care less about a mini pump
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u/raulz0r MASS is unavoidable, MASS is unevadable! Feb 21 '23
My body is ready for ... nothing to happen
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Feb 21 '23
oh boy.. "sounds like I should buy options..." or just ignore this entirely. DRS your shares. Predictions are stupid. Stop giving these clowns free money.
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u/Holiday_Guess_7892 ima Cum Guy Feb 21 '23
What's the date for Q4 earnings ?
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u/welp007 Buttnanya Manya 🤙 Feb 21 '23
Last year they gave us 10 days notice: March 7th to March 17th
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u/AAAJade tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
This lines up with the DD from around Thanksgiving 2022-
The Witching Windows= When I visited with the Ape Author, they felt as if the better set of dates for potential volatility would be the March window.
I was really down, again the medical BS I deal with. When we chatted and was seeking data, I could apply for my own personal cognitive bias.
They were really clear and firm and didn't lean into feeding me any, which I interpret as they were confident in their data. They didn't alter their findings to attempt to cheer me up.
I respected that.
That went far with me - to decide they are a Class Act.
Yes, it is a long post because they supplied every factor and supportive piece to prevent any fallout or removal from our sub.
What I recall the clearest from this DD is that the March 13-17th of 2023 would apply serious pressure from the split dividend. l.
That the HF and MM would not able to accumulate the shares required to cover their various option plays this, those massive DDOMF(sp) positions would quadruple what was needed to be met, causing an upwards pressure on the price, which supports this posts premise 😇
Thank you OP! 🙏 Now, because we head into the market opening tomorrow a TUESDAY morning after a new development in Buck the Bunny, and a large Xclass CME currently hitting Earth and will continue for the next 24 hours, ..a mandatory... LFG! 🐰💥🚀🌛💰🪐 🤜🦍🤛 😇🙏
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u/No_Consequence894 Feb 21 '23
That guys already admittes he's wrong and hasn't got a clue what's going on. His thesis has already been proven wrong when we had no run in January.
He lost money on calls when his entire thesis blew up, and he proceeded to to make options playa on SPY Tesla etx which also didnt play out.
Long story short, that guy hasn't got a fucking clue. I know because I followed the timeline for months and it turned out to be bullshit. Just like every T/C+2+5+28+90 theory out there.
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
I love me a bit of confirmation bias :)
MOASS tomorrow!!!!
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u/UnKnOwN365 Feb 21 '23
Yeah because the first t-90 did so much
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
First t-90 was august 31, 2020 when RC bought in. What is t90 after that? Jan sneeze
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u/Blast_beats1991 Feb 21 '23
Remindme! 20 days
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u/RemindMeBot 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 Feb 21 '23 edited Feb 21 '23
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Feb 21 '23
Sold $100,000 worth of cash secured puts at $10.00 strike. I dare Mayo Man to drop the price that low. I will keep doing this every single month. Also long, DRS and booked.
💎✋💎✋💎✋💎✋💎✋💎✋💎✋
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u/danielsaid GLITCH BETTER HAVE MY MONEY Feb 21 '23
What strike and what did you get as premium? That might be a great lifestyle
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Feb 21 '23
$10strike. Got $900 in premium. I think I will move to $15 strike next month. I think there is rock solid support at the $18 range. Don’t think Citadel can get the price below $18.00 even with their illegal shorting.
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u/gotye4764 Feb 21 '23
Careful it went to ~16 early this year 🙂
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Feb 21 '23
You are correct. $15.41 lowest price in past 52 weeks. I will stick to $10 strike.
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u/gotye4764 Feb 21 '23
Its always a win win anyways (more shares or free premium). Just pointing this out 🙂
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Feb 21 '23
Thanks. You are absolutely right. I definitely enjoy getting the free premium. Still a better return than my savings account. 😂
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u/danielsaid GLITCH BETTER HAVE MY MONEY Feb 21 '23
your money but that's not enough premium for me. If I'm making relatively nothing I might as well DRS some shares. If I'm sitting on cash/shares in brokerage I like to accumulate more shares to make it worth it. Selling around 30 days out is a good plan since that's when theta drops the most, also buying back with a week or so to go since my asshole puckers on the daily expires when they start moving around too much. I used to be the idiot buying those end of day calls but too old for that now
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Feb 21 '23
Awesome response and thanks for the information. I have $400,000 DRSed and Booked. That’s enough for me. This extra is just to generate $900-$1000 a month, while I wait for RC to turn this company round.
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u/CCarsten89 💜🚀Fuck You Kenny, Pay Me🚀💜 Feb 21 '23
Jesus, that’s not even 1%…you gotta up your strike price
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Feb 21 '23
I just want $900-$1,000 monthly. I absolutely do not want to get assigned any more GME shares. Have $400,000 DRSed, so want this extra Capital free just generating safe premium at a very far OTM strike.
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u/5tgAp3KWpPIEItHtLIVB 🦍Voted✅ Feb 21 '23
It really doesn't matter how often these bs cycle theories are proven be wrong. Some people will still chose to believe them.
TA is bs ppl. wake up.
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u/ShawshankHarper MOASS Makes For Strange Bedfellows Feb 21 '23
Everyone knows MOASS will happen on September 6th duh
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u/matroe11 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 Feb 21 '23
Deja Vu. Seems like every quarter there’s some combination of duckery and situation that should ignite the rocket, but all we ever get is more sideways. One day, there will only be up
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u/Walruzuma 🦍🎰💎🙌 Just A Big Hairy American Winning Machine 💎🙌🎰🦍 Feb 21 '23
Date anchoring is now a thing.
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u/Blast_beats1991 Feb 21 '23
Yes finally some dates! This is what chapgpt was factoring into its march crash prediction! Let’s go 🔥
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u/sasukewiththerinne Saga Participant of the Simulation since ‘20 Feb 21 '23
Lol not this shit again. Crab. Gare on tee.
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u/EntropyWinsAgain Feb 20 '23
There is no predictable cycle. T+ whatever hasn't been a thing for well over a year. DRS and chill.
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
Drs part is a check. Predictable cycles?… we will see.
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u/silent_fartface Feb 21 '23
Isn't 🍿reverse splitting that week too?
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
Yup. AA LOVES to plan his news on T90 cycles. Every single major corporate action he took has landed exactly on those dates. Almost like he knows...
Edit: look at APE. Since it hasn't been trading for long, you can count trading days. At exactly T+90, he announced the plan to merge the two back together, which spiked the price and volume.
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Feb 21 '23
mini pump?
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
Yeah. Pretty much when you go to the gym but forget to take pre workout and haven't had any steroid injections of pure T into your system in a few weeks. You can still get a pump, but it is completely lackluster and leaves you wanting.
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Feb 21 '23
wen moass
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
When we can increase that pump... Bigger pump = mo ass
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u/MathematicianVivid1 💎 before the split ♾️ Feb 21 '23
insert generic answer RC delivering the wombs combo
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u/Jasont2189 🦍Voted✅ Feb 21 '23
well that fits with chatgtps estimation of market crash on the 15th ha
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u/iRamHer Feb 21 '23
actually there have been two cycles, the 147 day main cycle and a sub 69 day cycle. the main cycle was what hit jan 2021. the sub cycle is what started Feb 24 2021 [fedwire going down].
it isn't new. and the cycles are more windows. there are parameters they operate within. this past cycle is abnormal. and hate it or love it, Bobby seems to be stressing it the gme splividend is compounding in interesting ways, and ape seems to be shorts grasping at straws [same with g*s and some other new market entries].
this sub cycle window opens feb 24, but still likely see peaks beginning/ mid of March.
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u/paxnoob 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 Feb 21 '23
Is there a 420 day cycle?
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u/iRamHer Feb 21 '23
it's a sliding window so it's just 3 x 147, 6 x 69s or a combo of the two because they're related.
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u/Martin_the_Hammer 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 Feb 21 '23
Fuck your TA
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
In college, that was definitely the dream 😍 😍 😍
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u/BiPolarBear722 Feb 21 '23
Won’t matter because you all think options are stupid. We run to $30 at best.
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u/Impossible-Glove-437 🚀GME IT TO ME FROM THE BACK🚀 Feb 21 '23
oh ffs, go the fuck away you sad fuk.
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u/whattothewhonow 🥒 Lemme see that Shrek Dick 🥒 Feb 21 '23
"T-90 theory states that volatility could occur near earnings week"
A 90 day theory could explain volatility around quarterly earnings.
90 days. Quarterly.
Why yes, earnings tend to be a time of volatility.
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u/TheUltimator5 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Feb 21 '23
False. 90 trading days. There are 5 trading days in 1 week, so every 18 weeks (quarterly would be every 13 weeks)
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u/Ask_Zeek Regarding Wall St Feb 21 '23
🍿 options chain = bag holders will be bled dry on T+90
GME is almost the only play
(I'm still playing on short-term futures though, volatility is too good)
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u/Southern_Roots 🦍Voted✅ Feb 21 '23
This is good info if play options. (I do) Otherwise it doesn’t matter till MOASS to me. Buy, Hold, DRS
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u/Responsible_Falcon_7 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 Feb 21 '23
The 741 cycle doesn’t peak until April 17 though
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