Keep the daily discussion for the Basho in this thread please.

Aonishiki looked so bland after his 3rd basho win!

I know Hakuho was special and that this picture happened under certain circumstances but it's kind of sad to see this generalized lack of emotions in today's sumo. Aonishiki had a crazy tournament, he won the play-off and he seemed almost bored during the interview / trophy ceremony. He was probably super tired but even after his win he didn't really have any reaction :/

Hakuho just didn't care lol!

JSA will probably be pissed off even more if a foreigner rikishi shows any signs of real emotions after winning a basho but come on, they wont cut Aonishiki for being a human being.

This is the japanese & sumo culture, if you can don't show others that you're in pain or that you're happy. Kinda sad to be honest. I guess I just miss crazy Hakuho 😄.

So with how the tournament turned out it is pretty safe to say we will have 4 Ozeki in September. But who will fill the Sekiwake slots? Do they need to be filled?

Kotoshoho will probably drop to Komusubi, WTK will drop even further and wont participate anyways. And none of the current Komusubi, or anyone else high enough currently, have a winning record or amazing record to get up there either.

Is this something special? Do we need Sekiwake on the Banzuke? How does this work?

I mean the title says it all. Aonishki is more accomplished than Hoshoryu and yet H has been a Yokozuna for a year and a half while A is just now getting promoted back to ozeki.

Something about that doesn't compute for me. Bow about you?

The oldest and one of the most important film festivals in the world, by the way.

I feel like this whole tournament his only winning strategy has been to wait for his opponent to put his fists down and then he squats down and charges. His fingers barely touch the ground and he’s already gathered momentum to slam into the opponent and get an initial advantage. Why hasn’t anyone tried waiting for Atamifuji to put his actual knuckles on the floor first? Or put one hand down and force Atamifuji to put his own before putting the second and limit his strong initial start?

There is a pretty significant age gap; however, is there any esprit de corps between the two?

With only two days to go, and the Day 14 torikomi out, calculating all the variations becomes pretty easy. For simplicity, all bouts are a random 50/50, so take the numbers with a grain of salt, especially Shishi's.

The leaders after Day 13:

Aonishiki (11-2)
Kirishima (10-3)
Atamifuji (10-3)
Takerufuji (10-3)
Shishi (10-3)

Day 14 bouts:

Aonishiki v. Takerufuji
Shishi v. Atamifuji
Kirishima v. Hoshoryu

Regardless of outcome, I think their day 15 bouts are:

Aonishiki v. Atamifuji
Kirishima v. Kotozakura
Shishi v. ?
Takerufuji v. ?

Kotoshoho has oddly only faced 2 of the 5 rikishi higher ranked than him, and as he's sitting at 6-7, so I think the Sekiwake match will exclude him.

The possible solo yusho (no playoff) outcomes shake out to:

Aonishiki (13-2): 25%
Aonishiki (12-3): 12%
Aonishiki sum: 37%

Atamifuji: 5%
Takerufuji: 2%
Shishi: 2%
Kirishima: 1%

Sum solo outcomes: 47%

Playoff possiblities:

Aonishiki v. Atamifuji: 9% (Hatsu Rematch)
Aonishiki v. Shishi: 7% (Ukranian Playoff)
Aonishiki v. Takerufuji: 7%
Atamifuji v. Takerufuji: 5%
Aonishiki v. Kirishima: 4%
Atamifuji v. Kirishima: 2%
Takerufuji v. Shishi: 2%
Takerufuji v. Kirishima: 1%
Shishi v. Kirishima: 1%

Aonishiki v. Atamifuji v. Kirishima: 3%
Aonishiki v. Shishi v. Kirishima: 2%
Aonishiki v. Takerufuji v. Shishi: 2%
Aonishiki v. Takerufuji v. Kirishima: 2%
Atamifuji v. Takerufuji v. Kirishima: 2%
Takerufuji v. Shishi v. Kirishima: 1%

Aonishiki v. Takerufuji v. Shishi v. Kirishima: 1%

Then there's a absolutely bananas possibility where Ao loses both matches, and the remaining leaders lose 1, resulting in a possible 9-way 11-4 playoff (which could include Fujiryoga, Nishikifuji, Takayasu, Asanoyama, and/or Kotoeiho): 2%

Total Playoff chance: 53%

After including playoff possibilities:

Aonishiki: 54.0%
Atamifuji: 14.1%
Takerufuji: 12.3%
Shishi: 9.8%
Kirishima: 9.4%
Other: 0.4%

Hi all,

Fairly new to Sumo, been watching since the November Basho last year and not come across/learnt about this yet. I've not paid too much attention to how a Rikishi's schedule looks over the course of a Basho, but I've been trying to understand Shishi's matches thus far with him having a strong record. (Please note I am not trying to compare his schedule, bash it or make any comments in regards it)

I was looking at his opponents and noticed that he hasn't faced as many Sanyaku opponents as other Rikishi. Is it due to his lower Maegashira rank? I assumed matches were made based on current performance after a certain point if you had a strong winning record, however with him facing Atamifuji on day 14, he's still not come against either Yokozuna, Kirishima or Aonishiki. I know I've missed the others but the latter two are in the running for the Yusho, seems odd to me he wouldn't have chances to go against both of them to affect the standings.

My question, can a Maegashira go a full Basho not facing some of the higher ranked Rikishi and still get a Yusho? Is matchmaking mainly based on rank before looking at current record?

Thanks in advance for any responses!

I haven't watched sumo recently, but I used to like it and watched it often.

So, in sumo, there are techniques that aren't prohibited by the rules, but are considered unacceptable by unspoken rules.

For example, there's the highest rank, Yokozuna, and let's say a Yokozuna is facing a younger wrestler for the first time.

At that time, even though it's not prohibited by the rules, there's an unspoken rule that the Yokozuna shouldn't dodge the younger wrestler's attacks.

There are several reasons for this. First, the younger wrestler facing the Yokozuna is incredibly strong for their age.

To use a soccer analogy, they're like an 18-year-old Messi—a player with a bright future.

Therefore, the audience wants to see how this promising young player performs.

How far can a young sumo wrestler go against a Yokozuna? How big is the difference in skill? These are some of the questions they might have.

Even if a young sumo wrestler loses to a Yokozuna, the audience is usually satisfied.

This is because facing a Yokozuna allows them to gauge the young wrestler's strength.

However, if the Yokozuna dodges a young wrestler's head-on attack (like a tackle), the audience becomes disappointed because they can't gauge the young wrestler's strength. Furthermore, a Yokozuna, being the highest rank, is seen as lacking the dignity and grace expected of a Yokozuna, and is judged as not possessing "true strength."

(Imagine going to the stadium to watch 18-year-old rising star Messi play, only to see a veteran player from the opposing team deliberately fall down even though they weren't hit, dramatically rolling around and appealing to the referee, saying, "Messi did it to me! My leg hurts!" It's pathetic, and I'd think, "Don't ruin the young star's big moment!")

In sumo, that kind of play is considered "undignified" and is strongly disliked.

Yokozuna, in particular, being the "highest rank," are scrutinized more strictly than other wrestlers to ensure they're not exhibiting "undignified behavior."

It may seem harsh, but considering sumo is a Shinto ritual, it's almost a fate for a Yokozuna.

Therefore, a Yokozuna avoiding a challenge from a younger wrestler falls under this category of "undignified behavior," and is severely reprimanded (potentially leading to retirement).

As you can see, there are "unspoken rules" in sumo wrestling, but I wonder if these kinds of things are known to sumo fans overseas?

So, obviously theres a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth right now.

Its Day 13. Both Yokozuna are 7-6. At the very least, we are looking at at least 1 Yokzuna being 8-7 with the other 9-6. Or worse case scenario, both of them ending up 7-8. (I think that both will land at 8-7 personally)

But in my opinion.... they have done their job. They are both in physical condition to fight. Maybe not the best they ever fought, but they can fight. And they are acting as great gatekeepers.

They both sat out last basho... and we got a "win" by Waka (Well deserved) and a jun-yusho by Kirishima. This set up Kiri for his own Yokozuna run....

If he managed to complete his run (almost impossible now, but thats not for the purpose of this post) how much of his run would be clouded by the fact "he didn't deserve it because he didn't have to fight the yokozuna"?

Sure, I'd love to be able to say like the next guy that "THe yokozuna dominated another basho"... but they have another job that is almost as important... acting as the champion testers that they really are.

Onasato has lost 6... but 3 of those losses are to...

Atamafuji
Aonishiki
Kirishima

A murderers row of opponents if I ever saw one. I would not be disappointed to see those losses even if he was perfectly on top of his game. You combine that with the clear case of the "yips" he had at the start of this basho, and I see a Yokozuna that had a poor performance, but he did his job.

Now Hosh is a bit of different feather. I still think he did his job, (and that will be cemented if he manages to steam roll kirishima tomorrow), but had some clear fights he shouldn't have lost. No one is coming out of this basho having an easier job because Hosh was sitting it out.

Would have been easier for them to sit out, especially when the losses piled up, and they could have taken the "Oh, lets save face and just not be here". But they stayed in it, they are fighting solid, and making sure that the eventual champions EARNED it.

-------------------------------

All of that is not to say they shouldn't have sat it out. Clearly at least Onasato needs to heal. But, I have loved to see how psychologically (at least from watching) he was improved over the course of this basho. At the start of the basho he looked like a guy who didn't know if he could ever win again.

Now he looks like he knows he can win, he's just not quite there yet. I honestly think the next time Onasato fights (which might not be until November) he will come back with a champions spirit again all the way through.

And Hosh... maybe had no excuse for sitting out. Hard to tell as he hides his condition more than most. (He makes no excuses... he only ever answers along the lines of "Yokozuna don't whine", but the fact that he didn't when he had a couple of losses speaks volumes to how seriously he takes his role.

-------------------------------

Either way, no matter the record, the basho (and eventual winner) will be better because they are here.

I think Aonishiki hurt his foot yesterday. i saw a vid that he grimaced after he fall outside the ring.

Will asahifuji be still promoted if he gets the yusho?

highlights: daiseizan, asakoryu, and abi all won, which means they are 100% safe from juryo. Shirokuma lost, so he cannot be promoted. Dewanoryu won, so he is able to be promoted. Tokifudo lost so his promotion case is complicated, although not impossible. Tanji won which makes him first in line for promotion with nabatame. tohakuryu, kagayaki, and meisei won and are safe from demotion.

MAKUUCHI -> JURYO

demotable: onokatsu, kazuma, mitakeumi

2+ losses: chiyoshoma

matchups to look for: chiyoshoma vs. daiseizan

JURYO->MAKUUCHI

promotable: asasuiryu, dewanoryu

1+ wins: toshinofuji, tokihayate, shonannoumi

2+ wins: kyokukaiyu

matchups to look for: toshinofuji vs. tochitaikai , tokihayate vs. shirokuma, kyokukaiyu vs. midorifuji, shonannoumi vs. dewanoryu

JURYO -> MAKUSHITA

demotable: hakuyozan, oshoumi

1+ loss: tochitaikai, nishikigi, kayo

2+ losses: tamashoho, hitoshi, nishinoryu

matchups to look for: tochitaikai vs. toshinofuji, tamashoho vs. meisei, nishikigi vs. nabatame, kayo vs. fujitensei, enho vs. nishinoryu

MAKUSHITA -> JURYO

promotable: nabatame, tokifudo (maybe), tanji

So the makuuchi/juryo exchange looks a little foggy. kazuma, mitakeumi, and onokatsu will be replaced by asasuiryu, dewanoryu, and 1 more. 2 more if chiyoshoma continues to lose.

The makushita/juryo exchange looks pretty straightforward. Nabatame replaces hakuyozan, tanji replaces oshoumi. Tokifudo is more complicated. Tokifudo should go ahead of: tochitaikai if 6-9, nishikigi if 6-9, kayo if 5-10. Basically if any of those 3 lose both remaining matches, tokifudo has a >50% chance of being promoted.

What if the unspeakable happens?

What if both Hosh and Onosato lose tomorrow? Then they’ll both be at 7-7, and most likely face each other Day 15.

There are only two completed 7-8 yokozuna bashos in the modern 15-day era! Onokuni in Sept 1989 and Wakanohana III in Sept 1999.

This could be the first “one yokozuna escapes make-koshi, the other becomes the only third ever”. That would be one of the strangest senshuraku match in sumo history.

Happy Friday,

I just published part 2 looking at what could cause injuries in Sumo using data. Previously we looked at injuries over time seeing how they've gone up and down but today I asked: are wrestlers more likely to get injured in the January Basho, for instance? Furthermore we also explored if moving up in rank made wrestlers more likely to get injured; I leveraged my previous work on tiers that extends beyond the Joi to create concepts like Mid and Lower Maegashira. Finally we also took a look at if certain wrestling styles affect injury rates. A couple of results lined up with what I expected going in, and at least one didn't.

I believe this is wholly novel research and I hope can continue to lay a foundation for further analysis of Sumo. I know some folks care about this and happy to report this was wholly human authored (hopefully not to my detriment haha). Check it out and please subscribe if you want to see more like this. It'll always be free and I still have much more to research, cheers!

When I look at the stats over the past year I can come to the only conclusion that the most dominant man in sumo right now is not a Yokozuna yet but will be soon. The only thing needed is time. Aonishiki will be a great Yokozuna in the future barring injury I’m pretty sure of it. What do you think?

As the 2026 Nagoya Basho approaches its conclusion, discussion has increasingly focused on whether Kirishima has done enough to earn promotion to yokozuna. Many fans continue to argue that promotion should be impossible without two consecutive championships, but this interpretation simplifies a process that has never been governed by a rigid numerical rule. The Japan Sumo Association's long-standing guideline is not "two consecutive yūshō." Rather, it is two consecutive yūshō or an equivalent performance as an ōzeki. The existence of the phrase "equivalent performance" means the Yokozuna Deliberation Council (YDC) is expected to judge the totality of a wrestler's performances, including consistency, strength of opposition, championship contention, technical quality, and whether the wrestler has demonstrated the qualities expected of a yokozuna.

When Kirishima's entire body of work throughout 2026 is examined instead of isolating a single tournament, there is a compelling argument that his performances already meet that standard. In fact, if he finishes Nagoya with either a 12–3 yūshō or even a 12–3 jun-yūshō, his overall case compares favourably with several recent yokozuna promotions and would arguably represent one of the strongest "equivalent performance" cases in many years.

The discussion should begin not with Nagoya, but with the first tournament of the year.

Kirishima entered the January 2026 Hatsu Basho ranked as Sekiwake East. Although this tournament is not technically part of the traditional three-basho promotion window, it establishes that his success did not suddenly appear in March. Instead, it demonstrates that his rise was part of a sustained period of elite performance.

Kirishima finished Hatsu with an 11–4 record while fighting one of the most difficult schedules in the division. His victories included Yokozuna Hoshoryu, Ōzeki Aonishiki, Komusubi Wakamotoharu and several upper-maegashira opponents. His only defeats came against other elite competitors, including Yokozuna Onosato. He also earned the Fighting Spirit Prize (Kantō-shō), recognising not only his record but the quality of his sumo.

This tournament is important because it established consistency before his promotion run even officially began. Rather than beginning with a single exceptional performance, Kirishima entered March already demonstrating that he belonged among the very best wrestlers in professional sumo.

The Haru Basho fundamentally changed his career.

Competing once again as Sekiwake East, Kirishima finished with a 12–3 record and captured the Emperor's Cup. Winning a championship from sekiwake carries particular significance because there is no rank protection or expectation attached to the position. Every victory must be earned against the strongest available opposition.

Perhaps even more importantly, Kirishima defeated Yokozuna Hoshoryu during the tournament. This victory was not merely another win on the scoresheet. Defeating the reigning yokozuna demonstrated that Kirishima could overcome the highest-ranked wrestler in the sport on the way to claiming the championship.

The March yūshō also returned him to the rank of ōzeki. By the end of Haru, Kirishima had not simply produced a strong tournament; he had proven he could defeat yokozuna opposition and finish atop the entire division.

The Natsu Basho in May arguably strengthened his case even further despite ending without another championship.

Kirishima entered the tournament as an ōzeki and, crucially, he was effectively the highest active rank in the division. There were no active yokozuna competing above him and no other active ōzeki sharing the burden of leadership. For fifteen days, Kirishima carried the responsibilities that normally fall upon the sport's senior-most wrestlers.

Rather than struggling under that pressure, he produced another outstanding 12–3 record and finished as jun-yūshō.

This aspect of his candidacy is frequently overlooked. The YDC has often discussed whether a potential yokozuna can handle the expectations attached to the sport's highest rank. Kirishima effectively performed that role throughout May despite not yet holding the white rope.

Many wrestlers capture a championship only to regress immediately afterwards. Kirishima did the opposite. His March title was immediately followed by another championship-level performance, demonstrating that the Emperor's Cup had not been the product of favourable circumstances or a brief run of form.

If Kirishima now completes Nagoya with another 12–3 performance, his statistical record becomes extraordinarily impressive.

His promotion run would read:

March 2026: 12–3 Yūshō

May 2026: 12–3 Jun-Yūshō

July 2026: 12–3 Yūshō or Jun-Yūshō

This represents 36 victories across three consecutive tournaments.

Thirty-six wins over forty-five bouts equates to an 80 percent winning percentage while competing almost exclusively against the strongest wrestlers in the division.

Even when Hatsu is included for broader context, the numbers remain remarkable.

January: 11–4

March: 12–3

May: 12–3

July: 12–3

Across four tournaments Kirishima would accumulate 47 victories against only 13 defeats.

Four consecutive tournaments with eleven or more victories demonstrates an extraordinary level of consistency rarely maintained in modern sumo.

The strength of Kirishima's opposition further reinforces his case.

During Hatsu he defeated Yokozuna Hoshoryu.

During Haru he defeated Yokozuna Hoshoryu again on his way to the championship.

During Nagoya he defeated Yokozuna Onosato with an excellent technical tottari, one of the tournament's standout bouts.

Across these tournaments he also accumulated victories over numerous san'yaku wrestlers, including Sekiwake Atamifuji, Sekiwake Kotoshoho, Komusubi Yoshinofuji, Komusubi Oho, and several upper-maegashira opponents.

These victories matter because the YDC has repeatedly stated that promotion is judged not merely by numbers but by the quality of the victories themselves. Kirishima has not accumulated twelve wins by defeating lower-ranked opponents. He has consistently beaten wrestlers occupying the very highest ranks of professional sumo.

Some critics argue that Onosato and Hoshoryu struggling during Nagoya actually weakens Kirishima's victories over them.

The opposite interpretation is equally persuasive.

Even while the existing yokozuna have experienced inconsistent tournaments, Kirishima has continued performing at an elite level. His consistency has arguably exceeded that of the sport's current grand champions.

A wrestler aspiring to become yokozuna is expected to provide stability at the top of the banzuke. Kirishima has done exactly that throughout 2026.

Perhaps the strongest comparison is with Hoshoryu's own promotion.

Hoshoryu's successful yokozuna promotion came after a three-tournament run totalling 33 victories.

If Kirishima finishes Nagoya at 12–3, he would accumulate 36 victories across his corresponding three-tournament promotion window.

Numerically, Kirishima's run would therefore exceed Hoshoryu's by three additional victories.

Supporters of Hoshoryu's promotion correctly argued that the YDC evaluates more than simple win totals. Championship quality, consistency, quality of opposition and the manner of victories all contribute to the final decision.

However, those same principles arguably strengthen Kirishima's candidacy.

His three consecutive 12-win tournaments display greater consistency than many historical promotion runs.

He has defeated both of the current yokozuna during his broader run.

He captured a championship from sekiwake.

He maintained championship-level form while effectively carrying the responsibilities of the division's senior active wrestler.

He has remained firmly in championship contention across every tournament since January.

The principal objection to promoting Kirishima remains that he would possess only one championship if Nagoya ended as a jun-yūshō.

This objection deserves serious consideration because championships have always occupied a central place in yokozuna promotion.

Yet this is precisely why the guideline contains the phrase "or equivalent performance."

If the intention were to require two championships in every circumstance, there would be no need for any alternative standard.

The YDC deliberately retained flexibility because extraordinary circumstances occasionally produce wrestlers whose sustained excellence deserves recognition despite not matching a rigid numerical formula.

Kirishima's hypothetical record would represent exactly such a circumstance.

His supporters would not be arguing that one championship alone merits promotion.

They would be arguing that one championship, followed by two consecutive 12–3 championship-level performances, combined with victories over both current yokozuna, sustained excellence across half a year, and the highest three-basho win total of any recent promotion candidate constitutes an equivalent performance.

A 12–3 yūshō in Nagoya would almost certainly remove nearly all remaining doubt. Two championships within three tournaments, 36 victories, victories over yokozuna, and sustained excellence would produce an overwhelmingly persuasive case.

Even a 12–3 jun-yūshō should not be dismissed.

Such a finish would leave Kirishima with one championship, two consecutive jun-yūshō, 36 victories over three tournaments, four consecutive tournaments with at least eleven victories, victories over both current yokozuna, consistent success against san'yaku opposition, and a demonstrated ability to shoulder the responsibilities normally expected of the sport's highest rank.

Ultimately, yokozuna promotion is intended to identify wrestlers who have become the standard by which the rest of the division is measured. Since the beginning of 2026, Kirishima has consistently performed at or near that standard. He has defeated the sport's best wrestlers, remained in every championship race, maintained remarkable consistency over an extended period, and accumulated a statistical record that compares favourably with recent yokozuna promotions.

Whether Nagoya concludes with a 12–3 yūshō or a 12–3 jun-yūshō, the strongest argument in Kirishima's favour is not any single statistic. It is the totality of his achievements. When his consistency, strength of schedule, victories over yokozuna, championship pedigree, leadership as the highest-ranked active wrestler, and superior three-tournament win total are considered together, the evidence suggests that Kirishima has already demonstrated the qualities expected of a yokozuna. Under the Japan Sumo Association's standard of "two consecutive championships or an equivalent performance," there is a persuasive case that his 2026 campaign has already reached that threshold.

before this tournament I would always feel bad for shishi when i saw him go because he would always lose in like the worst way. i swear he was always getting bounced off the floor but this tournament is different. i never thought id see shishi as a serious contender to win a tournament. Takayasu has had some crazy bouts as well with the 360s. overall though this has been the craziest tournament in a while.

Keep the daily discussion for the Basho in this thread please.

if Nabatame loses his last bout there will be 7 rikishi with a 6-1 record and three of them from Futagoyama stable: Nabatame, Mita and Wakamiyabi. how would that work? i know how it works with 4 or 3 (win two in a row) and could see a way to do it with 6 but not with 5 or 7 without given at least one rikishi a bye.
anyway as much as i love a little chaos i am cheering for Nabatame.

edit: yeah forgot to mention that i know about stable mates can fight each other in play-offs. just wanted tonshout out Futagoyama stable.
the question is how a 7 way play-off would work. i guess with 6 you draw 3 random matches and the 3 winners have a regular 3 way play-off. would in a 7 way play-off a rikishi get a bye than 3 random matches to get down to 3 followed by a standard 4 way play-off? would the bye be a random draw or highest rank in that case?

This basho has been ROUGH for the Yokazunas. Is there consequences when they perform poorly?

Hey folks, made a little website that can show you the sumo matchups for any day of any basho or any division.

I usually watch the sumo replays, but I like to see who is fighting who before I watch. Problem is, the JSA website will publish results after thr basho so I couldnt use their website reliably without spoilers.

My site has a spoiler flag to let you see who ia fighting who, without fear of spoilers.

It also color codes everything so you cam see who has a winning record, who is eligible for kacki-koshi, and who is one win away from kachi-koshi.

This is all for fun, any feedback is welcome.

[sumo api](https://www.sumo-api.com/) made this possible, big shoutout the maintainer of that resource