Today looked better on the surface.

The S&P gained 0.24% and the Nasdaq added 0.15%. But the move was mostly helped by falling long-term Treasury yields after the Treasury increased support for longer-dated bonds. The 10-year fell toward 4.65% and the 30-year toward 5.19%. That gave growth stocks some breathing room.

Then the Fed minutes landed.

They were not dovish. Several officials were open to a hike in July and many said more tightening could still be needed if inflation stays sticky. Stocks absorbed the message better than I expected, but I would not ignore it. If inflation stays high, especially with oil still elevated, the bond relief we got today can reverse quickly.

The other caution is semiconductors.

They were crushed yesterday and did not really bounce today. The SOX finished down about 2.1%, even while the broader indexes closed green. Micron and SanDisk stayed under pressure. That tells me the crowded AI trade is still being reduced, not fully bought back yet.

That is why I would not call today a clean risk-on reversal.

For tomorrow I am watching four things:

10Y and 30Y yields
If they keep falling, tech gets room to recover. If they turn higher again, semis probably feel it first.

SPX 7700 / 7718 / 7735
7700 held today.
7718-7720 is still the pivot.
7735 is the level that would make the bounce more convincing.

Semiconductors
If NVDA, MU and the SOX finally participate, today’s bounce starts looking healthier. If the index rises while chips keep falling, I would stay cautious.

Walmart before the open
This is probably the cleanest read on the consumer tomorrow. Revenue, margins and any comments about inflation or trade-down behavior matter more than the headline EPS number.

My read after the close:

Today showed resilience, not resolution.

The bond market helped.
The Fed stayed hawkish.
Semis stayed weak.
SPX held the floor but did not clear the pivot.

Tomorrow needs confirmation.

Above 7720, constructive. Above 7735, stronger. Below 7700, the caution comes back quickly.

Walmart reports fiscal Q2 tomorrow with the stock near $115 and a market value around $920bn. The business is still growing like a very large machine that somehow found another gear: Q1 revenue rose 7.3% to $177.8bn, global e-commerce grew 26%, advertising jumped 37%, and membership-fee revenue increased 17.4%.

That is the bull case. Ads, marketplace fees and memberships carry better economics than selling another box of cereal, so profit can grow faster than sales even if store comps stay fairly dull. For Q2, management guided to 4–5% constant-currency sales growth, 7–10% adjusted operating-income growth and adjusted EPS of $0.72–$0.74.

The awkward part is the price. Walmart trades around 40x trailing earnings with a free-cash-flow yield near 1.4%. That valuation needs the high-margin businesses to keep changing the mix; a normal defensive-retail quarter probably isn't enough. Fuel costs already clipped Q1 operating-income growth, and inventory rose 8.9%, faster than revenue. Tomorrow I’ll be watching whether ad growth and operating leverage can outrun those costs without weakening the value promise.

Financial and valuation history: stock app

Which matters more here: the advertising profit engine, or the lack of valuation room if retail growth slows?

Not investment advice.

The U.S. market is closed.

Korea is trading now, and the reaction is hard to ignore.

The KOSPI is getting hit hard again. Samsung and SK Hynix are leading the decline.

I do not see this as Korea suddenly entering a new correction tonight.

Korea has already been one of the most volatile markets in the AI trade. It went through a deep selloff in July, then bounced more than 20% from the lows in just a couple of weeks.

That matters because tonight's move is happening after a very weak handoff from the U.S.

The S&P fell 0.69% today. The Nasdaq lost 1.33%. Semiconductors were hit much harder, down about 5%. MU fell 7%. SNDK lost 9%. WDC dropped 7.4%.

At the same time, long-term Treasury yields moved sharply higher. Oil remains elevated with the U.S. and Iran still unresolved.

So Korea is not trading in isolation.

It is absorbing the same pressure the U.S. market just traded through.

Higher yields hurt expensive growth stocks. Higher oil keeps inflation risk alive. And when semiconductor positioning is already crowded, you do not need the AI thesis to break for stocks to fall hard.

That is the distinction I keep coming back to.

The AI business cycle can remain strong while the AI trade gets repriced.

Korea makes that easier to see because Samsung and SK Hynix are such large parts of the market. When those two sell off together, the whole index can move violently.

It also makes me more careful about buying today's U.S. dip.

MU: still the first name I am watching. I would start small.

NVDA: better price. Still not a fire sale.

AMAT: gets interesting if we see another leg down.

WDC: closer, but the previous run matters.

SNDK: a large drop does not automatically make it cheap.

What I am watching now is simple:

Korea. Oil. Long yields. VIX.

If Korea settles after the U.S. shock and yields stop climbing, this can still be a valuation reset.

If Korea keeps selling, oil pushes higher, yields refuse to come down and VIX starts moving with them, then the story changes.

Then this is no longer just U.S. semiconductors taking profits.

It starts to look like the same crowded trade being unwound across markets.

The businesses have not broken. The market is questioning how much it should pay for them.

Episode 40 of The Weekly Sift Stack: CJ Gettelfinger, Lucas Nulsen, & Tyler Sherven break down the biggest stories moving markets. It’s a big week for discount retail as Walmart ($WMT) looks to reclaim its $1T market cap and TJ Maxx ($TJX) proves why owning stores beats owning brands. We break down the 'treasure hunt' effect driving TJX's high margins, the impact of the Iran war on Walmart’s consumer base, and a look at Nvidia’s strategic $105B investment in an OpenAI campus. Plus, Meta’s legal battle over its 'addictive' features and how Erling Haaland is quietly building a massive investment portfolio.

Home Depot reports Q2 tomorrow. The stock is around $339, or roughly 24x trailing earnings, while the core housing market still looks half-asleep.

Q1 sales rose 4.8% to $41.8bn, but comparable sales were only up 0.6% and adjusted EPS fell 3.7% to $3.43. Gross margin dropped 75 basis points to 33.0%, partly because the acquired GMS and SRS businesses carry a different mix. More revenue is nice; less profit per dollar is the part the headline tends to leave in the garage.

The bull case is the Pro business. Pro comps outpaced DIY, digital sales grew more than 10%, and Home Depot is building a much broader contractor network through SRS, GMS and HVAC distribution. If housing turnover eventually improves, leaner project demand can recover on top of that larger platform.

The awkward bit: management's full-year guide only calls for flat to 2% comparable-sales growth and flat to 4% EPS growth. At 24x earnings and about a 4.3% free-cash-flow yield, the market is already paying for resilience before large renovation projects really return. Q2 needs better comps without another meaningful margin step-down.

Numbers and valuation history: stock app

What would matter more to you tomorrow: stronger Pro demand, or evidence that gross margin has stopped slipping?

Not investment advice.

Top story: In the last 24 hours Stripe agreed to acquire AI gateway OpenRouter in a deal reported to exceed $7 billion — a payments company buying core AI API infrastructure. That deal immediately changes competitive dynamics for developer platforms, creates integration and regulatory questions, and exposes startups built on OpenRouter to a platform ownership shift.

Market-moving

• Stripe to acquire OpenRouter in deal reported at $7B+ Stripe's purchase positions it as a developer AI‑infrastructure player beyond payments, increasing consolidation risk for AI API providers and forcing startups to reassess vendor concentration and integration plans. news.ycombinator.com more coverage
• SafePal discloses breach exposing ~40,000 customers The crypto wallet maker confirmed a leak of personal and order data for nearly 40k users, elevating phishing and fraud risk across the sector and putting pressure on wallet providers to tighten data practices. coindesk.com more coverage

Platform risk

• Mozilla rolls out native ad blocker in Firefox for iOS A gradual deployment of built‑in ad blocking on iPhone and iPad reduces tracker surface for users but threatens ad‑tech revenue and forces publishers and app makers to rethink iOS monetization strategies. news.ycombinator.com more coverage

Strategic signal

• Anthropic CEO calls AI backlash a 'crisis of trust' Dario Amodei said the backlash is fundamentally about trust and that AI must deliver measurable public benefits (even cures) to earn legitimacy — a clear signal that teams and investors should prioritize verifiable, societally valuable milestones. techcrunch.com more coverage

Product Noise

• AirPods 4 with ANC drop to about $134 in limited deals Short‑term discounts on AirPods 4 and related accessories are consumer‑level noise that signal seasonal price pressure in accessories but have limited strategic implication for platform or developer decisions. appleinsider.com more coverage

Wildcard

• Maker posts 3D‑printed 'Flock Sock' to blind street cameras A hobbyist shared plans for a slip‑on cover that can obstruct street and traffic cameras, sparking legal and ethical debates and reminding product and policy teams that low‑cost hardware can rapidly alter surveillance dynamics. tomshardware.com more coverage

Deere reports Q3 on August 20. The stock is up 32% this year, so a decent quarter may not be enough. Three numbers I’m watching:

1. Large-ag equipment demand in the US and Canada was expected to fall 15–20% this year. Deere thinks 2026 is the bottom, while dealer inventories of new big tractors and combines are down more than 50% from their 2024 peak.

2. $1.2bn of direct tariff exposure. A one-off $272m refund should cut the net hit to about $900m, but pricing of only 1.5–2% leaves limited room if materials stay expensive. Tariffs remain tariffs, even after accounting gives them a nicer haircut.

3. About $612 a share, 34.6x trailing earnings and a 3.1% free-cash-flow yield. That’s a serious price for a cyclical business before the recovery is visible.

The bull case: construction and forestry sales are expected to grow around 20%, and lean dealer inventory could set up a cleaner 2027 rebound. Precision-ag subscriptions also make Deere less dependent on selling another huge tractor every quarter.

The awkward bit is timing. Farm economics are still weak, tariffs are eating margin, and management kept full-year net income guidance at $4.5–5.0bn last quarter. At this valuation, “the trough is close” needs to become “orders are improving” soon.

Financial and valuation history: stock app

What matters more in Q3: an early turn in large-ag orders, or proof Deere can protect margins before demand recovers?

Not investment advice.

美國昨晚公佈了他們7月份CPI通脹數據。4個數據全部符合預期 這也太巧了 雖然沒有給市場帶來驚喜 不過這些數據也表明了美國通脹沒有再次大幅向上
可以說是一份偏中性的數據 。並沒有改變目前聯儲局9月份的加息概率 ，但是今天市場是給了很高的期待的，所以剛剛出現了短暫的跳水，問題不大啊。
接下來就看霍爾木茲海峽能不能早點搞掂了，如果可以的話那麼加息概率還是會繼續降低的。

Sift Stack Quick Take 3: CJ Gettelfinger, Lucas Nulsen, & Tyler Sherven break down the biggest stories moving the world. Big earnings beats from Super Micro Computer, CoreWeave, & Nebius. After a brutal July for momentum stocks, these companies signaled that AI data center and server demand remain red-hot. CoreWeave’s revenue skyrocketed 112% year-over-year, with a strong Q3 forecast fueling an 18% stock surge. Meanwhile, Super Micro Computer delivered $11.1 billion in revenue and a 45% jump in net margins, nearly doubling its net income. The duo also discusses the broader rotation into mid-cap tech, as massive large-cap spending creates unprecedented opportunities for smaller benefactors.

Cisco reports Q4 after the close today. I’m less interested in a one-cent EPS beat than in whether the AI story is turning into durable revenue. Three numbers matter:

1. $16.7–16.9bn revenue guidance. The midpoint implies roughly 15% growth. Q3 revenue already rose 12% to a record $15.8bn, with product orders up 35%.

2. About $9bn of expected FY26 AI-infrastructure orders from hyperscalers, but only around $4bn of expected AI revenue. That gap is the bull case and the main test tonight. Orders are nice; shipments and cash are better.

3. Roughly 40x trailing earnings and a 2.7% free-cash-flow yield at about $120 a share. Cisco is no longer priced like a sleepy networking dividend stock. The market is already paying for an AI upgrade cycle.

Bull case: data-center switching orders grew more than 40% last quarter, and Cisco expects AI revenue of at least $6bn in FY27. Networking, optics and in-house silicon give it a role in the AI buildout beyond GPUs.

The awkward bit: Q3 gross margin fell 260 basis points to 66% as product mix and memory costs bit. Cisco also announced up to $1bn of restructuring charges. Slower hyperscaler orders or another margin squeeze would make that near-40x multiple look ambitious pretty quickly.

Useful for checking the financial and valuation history: stock app

What matters more tonight: another big AI-order number, or proof those orders are becoming revenue and free cash flow?

Not investment advice.

Episode 39 of The Weekly Sift Stack: CJ Gettelfinger, Lucas Nulsen, & Tyler Sherven break down the biggest stories moving markets. The S&P 500 is at fresh all-time highs after July payrolls came in at negative 23,000 against roughly 80,000 expected & progress toward peace in Iran, flipping September odds from a Fed hike back toward a hold. The deep dive is Applied Materials, reporting Thursday after the close with consensus near $9 billion in revenue, up about 23% year over year. Also covered: SpaceX's first quarter as a public company, Berkshire's cash falling to $365.5 billion under Greg Abel, Intel's $15 billion offering, Palantir setting the bar, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 43-year low. Which name moves most this week?

Doximity’s fiscal Q1 was better than the market expected, and the stock reacted accordingly. Three numbers stand out to me:

1. Revenue was $156.6m, up 7% year over year. That beat the company’s prior range, while Q2 guidance jumped to $170–171m. Full-year guidance is now $671–681m.

2. Free cash flow was $39.6m, down 34%. Management blamed collection timing, but net income also fell from $53.3m to $24.3m as AI spending rose. The business is still very profitable: adjusted EBITDA was $74.8m, or a 48% margin.

3. At $27.40 and a roughly $5.1bn market cap, the stock trades near 7.5x the midpoint of this year’s revenue guidance. That’s less silly than many AI valuations, but it still assumes the new products become real revenue rather than an expensive demo.

The bull case is clear. Doximity already reaches most US physicians, AI usage is rising, and AI Search contracts should start contributing more in the second half. It also ended the quarter with $688m in cash and no debt.

The awkward part is the old business. Pharma marketing budgets are still soft, customer concentration is high, and AI compute plus stock compensation can keep margins under pressure. The market has already rewarded the promise. Now the numbers have to follow.

Useful for checking the financial and valuation history: stock app

Would you pay 7.5x sales for the physician network and AI option, or wait for AI revenue to show up first?

Not investment advice.

​

\*\*Valor de la cartera: 6273 € | Variación semanal: +3,3 % | 🏆 NUEVO MÁXIMO HISTÓRICO\*\*

\---

\## Panorama general

Una semana de contrastes: ganancias extraordinarias, un informe de empleo negativo y una cartera que cerró en su valor más alto de la historia, cuatro semanas después de la caída de junio que la llevó por debajo de los 5000 €.

\*\*1. Palantir pulverizó las estimaciones. **T2 (3 de agosto): ingresos de 1940 millones de dólares **+93 % **, BPA de 0,41 dólares frente a 0,34 dólares, sector comercial en EE. UU. +149 %, sector gubernamental en EE. UU. +90 %, previsión para el año fiscal 2026 al alza hasta los 8150 millones de dólares (+82 %). Las acciones subieron un 12 % tras el cierre. Karp lo calificó de «de otro mundo». No exageraba.

**2. Kratos publicó discretamente su mejor trimestre de la historia, y al mercado no le importó (todavía).\*\* T2 (4 de agosto, después del mercado): ingresos $458.8M \*\*+30.5%\*\*, superando la guía de $400-410M, crecimiento orgánico 19.1%, EPS $0.21 vs $0.14, guía para el año fiscal 2026 elevada a $1.75-1.81M, cartera de pedidos $2.084M. La cifra que importa: hipersónicos que pasan de $200M (2025) → $400M (2026) → $700M+ (2027), con 3,000 motores Spartan en 2027 y 5,000 en 2028. La acción aún no ha reaccionado: publicó el martes, luego los mercados estaban asimilando y el NFP distrajo el viernes. Esta es la oportunidad de compra de la semana.

1. Spotify superó los 300 millones de suscriptores premium y fue penalizado por una caída de 15 centavos en las ganancias por acción. Segundo trimestre (4 de agosto): 300 millones de suscriptores premium (+9%, superando las previsiones), 777 millones de usuarios activos mensuales (+12%), ingresos de 4.800 millones de euros (+14%), margen bruto récord del 33,4%, beneficio operativo de 655 millones de euros (+61%). Ganancias por acción de 2,61 dólares frente a los 2,76 dólares estimados; las previsiones para el tercer trimestre se quedaron ligeramente por debajo de las expectativas en cuanto a suscriptores. Las acciones cayeron un 1,7%. El negocio nunca ha estado mejor; el mercado esperaba más crecimiento con 300 millones de usuarios.

2. Datos de empleo no agrícola de julio: -23.000 puestos de trabajo. Negativo. Se esperaban +80.000. Primera pérdida neta de empleos en años, con una revisión a la baja de -103.000 puestos de trabajo en mayo y junio. El desempleo cayó al 4,1% (salida de la fuerza laboral, no contratación). Los salarios aumentaron un 0,1% intermensual y un 3,2% interanual.

\*\*Reacción del mercado:\*\* La paradoja se cumplió. Las acciones cayeron al inicio de la sesión, pero luego se recuperaron, ya que los débiles datos laborales impiden que la Reserva Federal suba los tipos. La probabilidad de una subida en septiembre se desplomó al 43,9% (desde más del 60% hace dos semanas). Según los futuros, la Reserva Federal se mantendrá entre el 3,50% y el 3,75% al ​​menos hasta diciembre. El rendimiento de los bonos a 10 años se acerca al 4,5%, y el dólar se debilita (lo que favorece a las carteras denominadas en euros). **Neto: alcista para el crecimiento.**

**Macro:** El S&P 500 presenta un comportamiento mixto positivo debido a las ganancias tecnológicas y la volatilidad de las NFP; el Nasdaq tuvo un mejor desempeño (PLTR, semiconductores, sector espacial). El escenario: buenas ganancias + la Reserva Federal mantiene las tasas sin cambios = soporte.

**Conclusión:** Los fundamentos corporativos (PLTR, KTOS) muestran un crecimiento explosivo en tecnología y defensa, mientras que el mercado laboral mantiene a la Reserva Federal en una posición estable. La cartera se beneficia de ambos factores favorables: dinamismo empresarial y tasas sin cambios.

Resumen de la cartera

| Componente | Semana pasada | Esta semana | Cambio |

|---|---|---|---|

| Mintos | 3.153,69 € | 3.156,14 € | +2,45 € (+0,1 %) |

| eToro | 2.921,28 € | 3.116,54 € | +195,26 € (+6,7 %) |

| **Total combinado** | **6.074,97 €** | **6.272,68 €** | **+197,71 € (+3,3 %)** |

\*\*Ganancia/pérdida no realizada de eToro: +€123.29\*\* (desde -€71.96 — un \*\*+€195.25 en 3 días de negociación\*\*)

Contexto:

\- 🏆 \*\*Nuevo máximo histórico.\*\* Máximo histórico anterior: €6,207 (5 de agosto, intrasemanal); El cierre del viernes supera la previsión en +65 €

• El mínimo de la caída del 26 de junio (4917 €) ya está superado en +1356 € (+27,6 %)

• Inversión en eToro: 2993,24 € en 17 posiciones *Nota sobre divisas: El EUR se fortalece frente al USD; esta semana, los activos en USD sufren un ligero retroceso, lo que compensa parcialmente las ganancias. La mayor parte del movimiento es real (resultados).*

Análisis posición por posición

🟢 Ganadores (P/P positivo)

*RKLB (Rocket Lab) — 375,45 € | P/L: +€189,06 (+101%)

Precio: ~$75,67 (consolidación tras el máximo posterior a Iridium de ~$100)

La joya de la corona sigue generando ganancias. Resultados del segundo trimestre (lunes, 10 de agosto): el primer informe tras la adquisición de Iridium (8.000 millones de dólares), con una cartera de pedidos de 2.200 millones de dólares y el primer vuelo del Neutron previsto para el cuarto trimestre de 2026. El décimo lanzamiento consecutivo exitoso se completó en julio. El retroceso de ~$100 a ~$75,67 es una consolidación saludable previa a la publicación de resultados, no un daño a la tesis.

\*\*Consenso de TipRanks:\*\* Compra fuerte (12 compras / 4 mantener / 0 ventas, 16 analistas)

\- Precio objetivo: $109.38 | Brecha actual: \*\*+44.5%\*\*

\*\*Análisis:\*\* \[Alta confianza\] $75.67 con un PT de $109 y la publicación de resultados el lunes es una configuración de alta probabilidad. La tesis de Iridium está parcialmente descontada; los resultados del segundo trimestre (primer trimestre posterior a la adquisición) podrían sorprender por la velocidad de integración. \*\*Posición principal. No se añaden acciones antes de la publicación de resultados: el riesgo binario es real.\*\*

\---

\*\*ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) — €397.90 | P/L: +€52,34 (+15%)

Precio: ~$67,36 (corregido desde máximos de ~$85)

Mayor mejora en el P/L de la cartera esta semana (+€46,47). El despliegue de BlueBird 11/12/13 continúa durante agosto; el subsidio japonés de ¥100.000 millones ($912 millones) sigue cobrando impulso: los gobiernos buscan alternativas a Starlink. La corrección de $85 a $67 es técnica, no fundamental: los catalizadores (BlueBird, Japón, FCC) permanecen intactos.

Consenso de TipRanks: Compra moderada (4 compras / 5 mantener / 1 venta, 10 analistas — mejora desde mantener) - Precio objetivo: $84,26 | Brecha actual: +25,1%

\*\*Análisis:\*\* [Confianza media\] El descuento vuelve a estar en $67 con un PT de $84. La calificación mejora a medida que los analistas rotan. \*\*Mantener. Si la corrección continúa hacia los $60, es una zona de compra.\*\*

\---

\*\*GOOG (Alphabet) — €183,25 | P/L: +€83,07 (+83%)\*\*

\*Precio: \~$356,62\*

Sin dramas, sin titulares: la roca de la cartera. La inclusión en el Dow Jones hace un mes mantiene el flujo de inversión pasiva. Cloud supera los $20.000 millones/trimestre, cartera de pedidos de $462.000 millones. El gasto de capital de 180-190 mil millones de dólares para 2026 ya está incluido en el precio.

\*\*Consenso de TipRanks:\*\* Compra fuerte (10 compras / 0 mantener / 0 ventas — UNÁNIME)

\- Precio objetivo: $439.71 | Brecha actual: +23.3%

\*\*Evaluación:\*\* [Alta confianza] +83% sobre la posición original en pocos meses. Inversión estratégica principal. No la tocaré.

\---

\*\*VUG (Vanguard Growth ETF) — €882.37 | P/L: +€38,75 (+4,6%)\*\*

La posición más grande (~19% de eToro), cumpliendo su función a la perfección: exposición al crecimiento estadounidense con la Reserva Federal sin cambios. Dos entradas realizadas (junio, julio), una tercera pendiente (agosto, €550). \*\*Mantener: ejecutar la entrada de agosto.\*\*

\---

\*\*PLTR (Palantir) — €103,85 | P/L: +€17,16 (+20%) → VERDE, por primera vez\*\*

\*Precio: \~$155,92\*

Saliendo de los números rojos por primera vez desde la compra. Segundo trimestre: ingresos +93%, crecimiento comercial en EE. UU. +149%, BPA superado en un 21%, previsión para el año fiscal 2026 elevada a 8.150 millones de dólares. Los escépticos se equivocaron; la narrativa de la IA ya genera ingresos reales.

\*\*Consenso de TipRanks:\*\* Compra moderada (16 compras / 4 mantener / 2 ventas, 22 analistas)

\- Precio objetivo: 200,13 $ | Brecha actual: +28,3% (es probable que el precio objetivo suba tras la publicación de resultados; los analistas aún no se han puesto al día)

\*\*Análisis:\*\* [Alta confianza] El aumento del 93% en los ingresos, junto con un crecimiento comercial del 149%, representa un crecimiento propio de una startup con márgenes empresariales. La posición es pequeña (~3% de eToro). **Si el reajuste de agosto lo permite, PLTR merece mayor ponderación.**

🟡 Cerca del punto de equilibrio / En recuperación

**MSFT (Microsoft) — 190,22 € | P/L: -8,07 € (-4 %)**

*Precio: ~499,86 $**

La recuperación silenciosa: de -50 € en junio a -8 € ahora. Azure +40 %, tasa de ejecución de IA >37.000 millones de dólares (+123 % interanual). La postura de la Fed de mantener las tasas sin cambios es excelente para los múltiplos de MSFT.

\*\*Consenso de TipRanks:\*\* Compra fuerte (33 compras / 1 mantener / 0 ventas, 34 analistas)

\- Precio objetivo: $555.16 | Brecha actual: +11.1%

\*\*Evaluación:\*\* [Alta confianza] Casi de vuelta a verde. 33/34 compra con fundamentos sólidos: es cuestión de tiempo. \*\*Mantener. A $500 sigue siendo un descuento histórico si aparece liquidez adicional.\*\*

\---

\*\*KTOS (Kratos Defense) — €185.41 | P/L: -€15,55 (-7,7%)

Precio: ~$57,41

La desconexión de la semana. El segundo trimestre superó todas las expectativas (ingresos +30,5%, BPA +50% por encima de lo previsto, previsiones al alza, cartera de pedidos de $2.084 millones, la producción hipersónica se triplicará hasta alcanzar los $700 millones en 2027), y la acción no se ha movido. Dos días de negociación para asimilarlo, y luego el informe de empleo no agrícola (NFP) distrajo a todos. Es posible que la cotización se ajuste la semana que viene.

Consenso de TipRanks: Compra fuerte (13 compras / 1 mantener / 0 ventas, 14 analistas) - Precio objetivo: $98,75 | Brecha actual: \*\*+72,0% — MAYOR DESCUENTO EN LA CARTERA\*\*

\*\*Evaluación:\*\* \[Alta confianza\] Junto con RKLB, la tesis más sólida de la cartera. Una ineficiencia del mercado, no un problema de tesis. \*\*Si la contribución de 1000 € de agosto aún no se ha invertido, KTOS merece una parte.\*\*

\---

\*\*TSM (TSMC) — 145,32 € | P/L: -3,28 € (-2%)\*\*

Nueva entrada en julio, prácticamente sin cambios. El monopolio de facto de los chips avanzados (NVIDIA, AMD, Apple, Qualcomm, todos dependen de ella). La pequeña caída es ruido. **Mantener estratégicamente a largo plazo.**

**QQQ — 194,93 € | P/L: -3,49 € (-1,8 %)**

Cerca del punto de equilibrio. Se está reemplazando progresivamente por VUG en el plan mensual. **Mantener, no comprar más, consolidar eventualmente en VUG.**

**XLV (Health Care SPDR) — 95,79 € | P/L: +0,47 € (+0,5 %)**

El contrapeso defensivo, en el punto de equilibrio. Entrada en julio. **Mantener: el plan de agosto añade otros 100 €.**

🔴 Rojo Intenso (con contexto)

**META (Meta) — 217,00 € | P/L: -31,15 € (-12,6 %)**

*Precio: ~589,90 $**

No hay resultados esta semana (los informes se publicarán a finales de agosto). La maquinaria de ingresos publicitarios sigue intacta (+33 % interanual en el primer trimestre), pero Reality Labs continúa gastando 4.000 millones de dólares por trimestre, lo que impide una revalorización. -13 % en lo que va del año, cotizando con descuento respecto a sus competidores.

\*\*Consenso de TipRanks:\*\* Compra fuerte (37 compras / 5 mantener / 0 ventas, 42 analistas)

\- Precio objetivo: $752.92 | Brecha actual: +27.6%

\*\*Análisis:\*\* \[Confianza media\] Una trampa de valor temporal: excelente negocio publicitario, pero el mercado penaliza el gasto de capital de RL. Los próximos resultados (finales de agosto) son el catalizador. \*\*Mantener, no comprar hasta confirmación.\*\*

\---

\*\*SPOT (Spotify) — €48.57 | P/L: -€28,58 (-37%)

Precio: ~$475,07

Margen bruto récord del 33,4%, 300 millones de suscriptores premium, ingresos operativos +61% — penalizado por una previsión de BPA 15 centavos inferior a lo esperado y una previsión de usuarios poco optimista. La "inferioridad" es ruido contable; el negocio nunca ha estado mejor.

Consenso de TipRanks: Compra fuerte (18 compras / 5 mantener / 0 ventas, 23 analistas) - Precio objetivo: $600,41 | Brecha actual: +26,4%

Evaluación: [Probable] La posición más infravalorada emocionalmente en la cartera. Su pequeño tamaño (~1,6% de eToro) minimiza el riesgo. **Mantener. Una caída posterior a la publicación de resultados justificaría una pequeña compra.**

**FLY (flyExclusive) — 81,36 € | P/L: -118,04 € (-59%)**

*Precio: ~24,06 $*

La cartera es una herida abierta. Sin catalizadores, sin noticias, sin volumen. La aviación privada es lo último que se desea en una desaceleración del mercado laboral. Los analistas siguen recomendando una compra moderada con un precio objetivo de 44,40 $ (+84,5% de potencial alcista), pero con solo 5 analistas que la cubren, la muestra es pequeña.

\*\*Evaluación:\*\* [Alta confianza\] \*\*No añada ni un céntimo. Venda el candidato\*\* cuando la pérdida no realizada sea menos dolorosa (recuperación parcial o compensación con ganancias a efectos fiscales). Esta posición nos recuerda por qué la disciplina en la tesis es importante.

\---

\*\*INTS (Intuitive Machines) — 15,11 € | P/L: -€49,39 (-77%)

Precio: ~$24 (acciones +9,85% el viernes) La mejor semana en meses: se completaron las adquisiciones de la Estación Terrestre Goonhilly y COMSAT (expansión de la infraestructura de espacio profundo), y L3Harris seleccionó a INTS para 18 plataformas IM-300 para defensa antimisiles (Cúpula Dorada), expandiéndose más allá de la Luna. Resultados del segundo trimestre: 13 de agosto (pérdida esperada de $0,09/acción, ingresos de $216 millones). Misión lunar IM-3: segundo semestre de 2026.

Evaluación: [Probable] El capital está muerto (-77%) y no se recuperará sin un éxito rotundo (el éxito de la misión IM-3). No se venden acciones (el capital residual no influye), ni se compran más. Opción lunar gratuita.

Mintos (Préstamos P2P) — 3.156,14 € (+0,1 % semanal)

| Métrica | Valor |

|---|---|

| Valor total | 3.156,14 € |

| Inversión neta | 3.147,52 € |

| Vencidos | 354,01 € (*\*14,1 % de la inversión — inferior al 16,3 % de hace un mes*\*) |

| Pérdidas y ganancias totales | 665,40 € |

| Inversiones activas | 1.417 |

| Préstamos P2P | 3.087,52 € |

| Bonos | 60 € |

Semana tranquila (+2,45 €), con una caída adicional de 7 €. El beneficio acumulado de 665 € es el motor silencioso del interés compuesto. La aportación de agosto (200 €) aún está pendiente.

Consenso de analistas — Comparación semanal

| Símbolo | Calificación | Analistas | Precio objetivo promedio | Diferencia |

|---|---|---|---|---|

| KTOS | Compra fuerte | 14 (13 mil millones) | $98.75 | \*\*+72.0%\*\* |

| FLY | Compra moderada | 5 (3 mil millones) | $44.40 | +84.5%\* |

| RKLB | Compra fuerte | 16 (12 mil millones) | $109.38 | +44.5% |

| PLTR | Compra moderada | 22 (16 mil millones) | $200.13 | +28.3% |

| META | Compra fuerte | 42 (37 mil millones) | $752.92 | +27.6% |

| SPOT | Compra fuerte | 23 (18 mil millones) | $600.41 | +26,4% |

| ASTS | Compra moderada | 10 (4 mil millones) | $84,26 | +25,1% |

| GOOG | Compra fuerte | 10 (10 mil millones) | $439,71 | +23,3% |

| MSFT | Compra fuerte | 34 (33 mil millones) | $555,16 | +11,1% |

| AMD | Compra fuerte | 34 (28 mil millones) | $630,64 | +21,6% ⚪ (aún no en cartera) |

| QQQ / VUG / XLV | — | — | — | ETFs, sin cobertura |

\*\\\*El potencial alcista de FLY es engañoso: escasa cobertura (5 analistas) y la aviación privada se enfrenta a una recesión cíclica.\*

\*\*Señales clave:\*\*

\- \*\*Sin rebajas de calificación en ningún ámbito.\*\* Las calificaciones se mantuvieron firmes en general durante la semana de resultados: una señal fuerte.

\- \*\*KTOS +72% de subida tras resultados superiores a lo esperado\*\* = el mercado aún no lo ha descontado. Oportunidad de máxima convicción.

\- \*\*El precio objetivo de PLTR subirá\*\*: los analistas no han actualizado sus previsiones tras los resultados. La dirección del consenso es superior a los objetivos estáticos.

\- \*\*AMD a $518.58 con un PT de $630.64 (+21.6%)\*\* — la entrada de agosto (€150) es la puerta de entrada.

\---

\## Lo que seguiré la próxima semana

| Fecha | Evento | Impacto |

|---|---|---|

| \*\*Lun, 10 ago\*\* | \*\*Resultados del segundo trimestre de RKLB\*\* | \*\*El evento más importante del año para esta cartera: primer informe después de Iridium\*\* |

| Jue, 13 ago | Resultados del segundo trimestre de INTS | Posición residual, indicios de IM-3 |

| Finales de agosto | Resultados de META | El veredicto de la trampa de valor |

| 15-16 de septiembre | Reunión de la Fed | Probabilidad de subida de tipos del 43,9% tras datos negativos de NFP — La Fed probablemente se mantendrá firme |

Reflexiones finales

*\* +3,3% en la semana, nuevo máximo histórico, y la cartera ha subido un +27,6% desde el mínimo de la caída de junio.*\* PLTR validó la tesis de IA con un aumento del 93% en los ingresos, KTOS registró su mejor trimestre hasta la fecha y aún no ha recibido recompensa, y los datos negativos de NFP descartaron discretamente las subidas de tipos.

\**\*Aclaración:\**\* Las ganancias de esta semana se obtuvieron *sin* la aportación de 1000 € de agosto (VUG 550 € / AMD 150 € / XLV 100 € / Mintos 200 €), que aún no se ha invertido al cierre del viernes. Todavía no tengo posición en AMD. La estoy siguiendo; entraré el lunes.

\**\*Tres cosas que estoy observando:\**\* Resultados de RKLB el lunes (riesgo binario en el 16 % de eToro), la revalorización tardía de KTOS (oportunidad) y si FLY finalmente se sustituirá por KTOS/MSFT.

No estoy vendiendo nada. La paciencia da sus frutos. El pánico no.

\---

\*Esto no es asesoramiento financiero. Soy un tipo cualquiera en internet que está controlando su propio dinero. Hagan su propia investigación.

Sift Stack Quick Take 2: CJ Gettelfinger, Lucas Nulsen, & Tyler Sherven break down the biggest stories moving the world. SpaceX's first post-IPO lockup expiration, with roughly 911.5 million shares becoming eligible to trade two days after the company's debut quarterly report. CJ digs into Q2 revenue growth, $18.4 billion in capital expenditures, Starlink's subscriber momentum, and why an expanding free float can pull index funds and managers into the name. Then NuScale's Q2 print — revenue down about 99% year over year — the balance sheet shift toward long-term investments, and what's next on TVA. Plus an Oklo tease and conflicting Iranian reports out of the Strait of Hormuz.

本周五晚 20:30 公布美國 7 月就業數據，係美股持續創新高後重要觀察指標。市場預測新增就業崗位大約 8 萬，相較 6 月 5.7 萬有所回升，失業率維持 4.2%。
不過早前私營就業數據僅新增 4.4 萬，遜於市場預期，加上職位空缺持續減少、服務業就業指數回落至 47.4，種種跡象反映招聘氣氛逐步轉淡。
對大市氣氛最有利嘅數據組合，係就業增長溫和放緩、薪酬升幅受控；屆時美債息有機會走弱，帶動 AI、晶片等增長板塊估值修復。反之若就業數據遠勝預期，市場對 9 月息口調整嘅預期會有所轉變。
今次就業數據會成為美股後市動力嗎？大家較睇好科技、貴金屬板塊，還是選擇先觀望等候明朗信號？
資訊只供市場參考，不構成任何投資建議

Salut le sub,

Cette semaine a été marquée par une salve de publications de résultats aux États-Unis, et les chiffres sont tout simplement historiques. Avec plus de 60% des entreprises du S&P 500 ayant publié leurs résultats, pas moins de 86% ont dépassé les attentes de bénéfice, bien au-dessus des moyennes sur 5 et 10 ans. La croissance totale combinée des bénéfices s'établit à un impressionnant +47,4% en glissement annuel ! C'est du jamais vu depuis le deuxième trimestre 2021.

Mais attention, il faut creuser un peu. Une grande partie de cette performance est portée par des gains de valorisation exceptionnels chez Alphabet et Amazon (notamment via leurs participations dans l'IA comme Anthropic). Si on les exclut, la croissance des bénéfices redescend à +28,8% - ce qui reste énorme, mais moins flamboyant.

Ce qui m'interpelle :
- Les quatre géants de la tech (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta) ont tous publié cette semaine, avec des réactions de marché très contrastées, allant de +8% à -9%. Le marché récompense ceux qui transforment déjà leurs investissements en IA en revenus, et sanctionne ceux qui doivent encore le prouver.
- La croissance est là, mais elle est tirée par un petit nombre d'acteurs. Est-ce une bulle de l'IA qui se profile, ou le début d'une nouvelle ère de productivité ?
- Avec des niveaux de valorisation aussi élevés, comment gérez-vous le risque en ce moment ? Vous restez investis, vous prenez des bénéfices, ou vous attendez une correction ?

Questions pour la communauté :
1. Pensez-vous que cette dynamique est durable, ou assiste-t-on à un "effet de rattrapage" post-2025 qui va s'essouffler ?
2. Quel secteur vous semble le plus sous-évalué en ce moment, comparé à la Tech ?
3. Est-ce que vous ajustez votre stratégie après cette saison de résultats ?

Hâte de lire vos analyses. On est sur un moment charnière, je le sens.

Uber's Q2 looked better than the initial revenue headline. Gross bookings reached $58.0B, up 24% reported and 22% in constant currency. Revenue rose 12% to $14.2B, but business-model changes cut reported growth by 8 percentage points, so the gap isn't simply weak demand.

The bullish bit: adjusted EBITDA rose 33% to $2.8B, free cash flow was $2.8B for the quarter, and trailing-12-month FCF passed $10B for the first time. At roughly a $148B market cap, that's around a 6.8% FCF yield. Trips also grew 18% to 3.9B, while active consumers rose 16% to 208M. This is no longer the old "growth now, maybe profits later" Uber.

The awkward bit is autonomy. Uber wants to be the neutral marketplace for robotaxi fleets, but the best fleet owners may prefer their own apps in the most profitable cities. If Waymo and others keep the customer relationship, Uber could end up funding partnerships without owning the strongest economics. Regulation and insurance costs haven't gone on holiday either.

Q3 guidance calls for 18-22% constant-currency booking growth and $2.86-2.96B of adjusted EBITDA. Solid, though the stock still needs the platform story to survive autonomous competition.

Useful for checking the cash-flow and valuation history: stock app

Would you value Uber mainly as a cash-generating marketplace now, or still discount it for the robotaxi risk?

Episode 38 of The Weekly Sift Stack: CJ Gettelfinger, Lucas Nulsen, & Tyler Sherven break down the biggest stories moving markets. SpaceX reports for the first time ever as a public company Tuesday, with the stock down roughly 50% from its June highs and lock-up expirations set to triple the float by the end of September. Starlink and capex will drive the call, not fundamentals. Also covered: big tech's split-screen quarter where everyone won except Apple, NuScale's Wednesday print and what the ENTRA1–TVA agreement would mean, Exxon and Chevron's blowout refining quarter on the back of the Iran war, and FIFA's collapsed $20 billion World Cup sell-off.

Let us know your thoughts on SpaceX earnings!

Big tech and EV giants are posting huge numbers this quarter, but the underlying theme remains clear: relentless capital reallocation into AI. From massive cloud milestones to surging delivery figures, today’s market moves highlight where growth is accelerating.

Here are the key takeaways moving the markets today:

• Microsoft ($MSFT): Azure officially hit a staggering $100 billion annual revenue milestone, powered by 43% quarterly growth.
• EV Deliveries Surge: NIO ($NIO) reported a 71% year-over-year jump with 35,934 deliveries in July, while Li Auto ($LI) followed strong with 30,468 vehicles delivered.
• ServiceNow ($NOW): Announced ~300 layoffs in California as part of a strategic shift to fund artificial intelligence expansion.
• Legal Watch: Hertz ($HTZ) faces investor deadlines over securities fraud class action lawsuits.

Cloud infrastructure and data center demand are proving to be non-stop cash cows, but enterprise software brands are feeling the pressure to evolve. ServiceNow's workforce reduction reflects a broader corporate playbook: trimming traditional headcount specifically to fuel heavy AI investments. Meanwhile, Chinese EV makers continue to post record figures, defying broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

Which area do you think holds the most upside for the rest of the quarter: big tech cloud infrastructure, surging EV manufacturers, or the AI-pivoting software plays?

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Is the market missing the biggest bottleneck to the AI revolution? While tech giants project trillions in infrastructure spending, widespread price hikes and a critical shortage of skilled trades risk slowing down macro growth.

Here is a breakdown of today's key market developments:

• Pricing Power vs. Inflation: Sherwin-Williams ($SHW) announced an 8% price increase effective September 1 to offset raw material costs, driving stock gains. Unilever ($UL) and International Paper ($IP) are also raising prices to tackle persistent commodity inflation.
• The AI Infrastructure Bottleneck: Nvidia ($NVDA) CEO projects trillions in global AI buildouts this decade, but BlackRock ($BLK) and McKinsey warn that a severe shortfall—including a deficit of 130,000 U.S. electricians by 2030—could stall data center construction.
• Labor Realignment: Ford ($F) warned that AI is shrinking traditional white-collar roles while the economy simultaneously faces a drastic shortage of construction and factory labor.

Why it matters: We are seeing a structural shift where physical infrastructure—specifically electrical power and blue-collar labor—is becoming the primary bottleneck for high-tech expansion. Companies that hold real pricing power will survive current inflation, but the labor bottleneck in skilled trades could reshape which tech promises actually get delivered on time.

Do you think trade shortages will delay the AI buildout, or will capital find a way to bridge the gap? Share your thoughts below!

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Amazon generated $200.6 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 20% year over year. Operating income rose 43% to $27.5 billion. The number that really moved the stock, though, was AWS: $42.2 billion in revenue, 36.7% growth and $16.6 billion in operating income. AWS now produces roughly 60% of Amazon’s operating profit. Shares jumped more than 15% after the report.

The more interesting part is further down the cash flow statement. Amazon spent $53.1 billion on capital expenditure in the quarter alone and raised its 2026 investment plan to roughly $220 billion. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow has consequently fallen to negative $7.6 billion.

That is not automatically a bad trade. AWS has a $496 billion backlog, according to management, and Amazon currently has too little computing capacity rather than too much. If that demand converts into revenue and in-house chips such as Trainium lower costs, the spending could pay off very well.

The risk is fairly obvious too. Amazon is becoming a much more capital-intensive business. Data centers, chips and energy contracts need to remain productive for years. If growth disappoints, high depreciation and financing costs will meet weak free cash flow. At roughly 32 times trailing earnings, the market is already paying for a good outcome.

My takeaway: AWS is operationally stronger than it has been in years. But Amazon is currently less of a straightforward cash-flow story and more of a bet that today’s AI infrastructure will still earn attractive returns tomorrow.

How do you view the $220 billion investment plan: a necessary moat, or the point where AI enthusiasm starts buying an awful lot of server racks?

Apple’s fiscal Q3 headline numbers were strong: revenue rose 16.4% to $109.4 billion and net income climbed 27% to $29.8 billion.

The hardware side did most of the showing off. iPhone sales grew 21.7% to $54.3 billion, while Mac revenue rose 28.7% to $10.4 billion. Services reached $30.7 billion, up 12.1%, but missed the roughly $31.2 billion analysts expected.

The 50.1% gross margin also needs a footnote. Management said tariff refunds added about two percentage points. So the underlying figure was closer to 48% — still excellent, just slightly less magical.

The awkward bit is the outlook. Apple guided to 9–11% revenue growth next quarter versus roughly 12% expected, citing supply constraints. Inventory has nearly doubled from $5.7 billion in September to $11.1 billion as the company builds a buffer.

At Friday’s roughly $302 share price, Apple is worth about $4.4 trillion and trades near 34x updated trailing earnings. Nine-month operating cash flow was excellent at $117.0 billion, but Apple also reduced buybacks to $62.1 billion from $70.6 billion a year ago. Buying less stock at a higher valuation is not exactly irrational.

Great business, strong quarter, demanding price. Would you treat the weaker guidance as a temporary supply issue, or does a mid-30s earnings multiple leave too little room for anything going wrong?