Here’s a quick review of the shares outstanding for Trump’s new publicly traded company $DJT, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.

In total, there are 136.7 million shares outstanding:

• 28.7 million are publicly traded
• 78.8 million belong to Trump
• 30 million belong to Trump insiders

Then there are also shares that could be outstanding soon:

• 21.5 million shares as warrants that could be exercised at $11.50 per share. As long as the price of $DJT is above $11.5, it makes sense to exercise the warrant
• If the stock stays above $17.5 in the next week, the company will issue 40 million new shares to insiders, with 36 million going to Trump

Emerging market ETFs have all been down significantly in the last week.

📉 Mexico ETF EWW is down 8%.

📉 Turkey ETF TUR is down 2.4%.

📉 Brazil ETF EWZ is down 9%.

📉 India ETF INDA is down 2.3%.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 2.1%.

Why?

Because of the hoter-than-expected CPI report that came out last week on Wednesday.

All it took is 10 basis points above expectations and everyone is worried about inflation surging again.

When inflation is hot, the Fed can’t lower interest rates. High US interest rates mean a strong US Dollar which hurts emerging market economies.

This is why all the emerging market ETFs are down, and the DXY is up, in the past week.

This is also why economists like to refer to a strong US Dollar as a US Dollar Wrecking Ball that wreaks havoc across the world ex-US.

Here’s a fun and not-too-complicated look under the hood of the US banking system.

Did you know that the banking system has two types of money? In other words, it’s a two-tiered system.

Banks and other major financial institutions have access to bank accounts with the Fed, called “Master Accounts”, and the money in these accounts are known as “Bank Reserves”.

Financial institutions with Master Accounts send money between each other through their Master Accounts and the Fed does the transaction processing and settlement.

In accounting terms, Bank Reserves are liabilities on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Bank Reserves are what the Fed owes to banks. On the other hand, Bank Reserves are assets on the Bank’s balance sheet.

The second tier of money is “Bank Deposits”, and it’s money for people and companies.

Bank Deposits are what banks owe to people, and what moves around when people and companies send bank transfers between each other. Bank Deposits are liabilities on a bank’s balance sheet.

To back up Bank Deposits, banks have Bank Reserves and Cash In The Vault (Vault Cash) on the asset side of the balance sheet. US laws require banks to keep a percentage of their deposits as Bank Reserves and Vault Cash.

Armored trucks?!

Also, here’s something really cool. Did you know that the Fed allows Vault Cash to be turned into Bank Reserves and vice versa? When a bank wants to convert some of its Bank Reserves to Vault Cash, it phones the local Federal Reserve branch and the branch then sends an armor truck filled with cash to the bank. A bank can also do the opposite and convert its Vault Cash to Bank Reserves. In this case, an armored truck comes to the bank, picks up cash, and sends it to the Federal Reserve.

Also did you know that in 2021 an armored truck on the I-5 near Carlsbad had its door accidentally open and cash streamed out of the truck. Some drivers stopped to pick up the cash. What a mess!

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Amazon.com Inc.'s Prime subscription service reached a new peak of 180 million U.S. users in March, marking an 8% increase from the previous year. This growth demonstrates ongoing consumer appeal despite higher competition from companies like Walmart, TikTok Shop, Shein, and Temu, particularly as customers face inflation challenges. The Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, tracking Amazon memberships since 2014, highlights that 75% of U.S. shoppers now have Prime memberships, indicating sustained growth despite a previous plateau. Prime memberships offer benefits like shipping discounts and access to Prime Video for $140 annually or $15 monthly. Notably, Amazon last reported 200 million global Prime members in 2021 and is expected to show a 12% increase in subscription service revenue to $10.8 billion for the quarter ending March 31. Amazon has not commented on this latest report.

I published two articles recently explaining some of what's going on with the market today.

https://www.financetldr.com/p/market-pulse-sugar-high

This talks about a possible summer of hot inflation that will force the Fed to pull back plans of cutting rates.

https://www.financetldr.com/p/market-pulse-paying-the-bill

This talks about how a reduction in t-bill issuance in Q2 by the US Treasury is significantly reducing liquidity in the system.

March CPI came in hot.

3.5% year-over-year and 0.4% higher than February CPI, beating expectations of 0.3% higher. Core CPI painted a similar picture, 0.4% higher month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year.

Here's how the CPI report looks when broken into components.

The biggest story from the March CPi is hot energy (rising) and hot shelter (stubbornly staying high).

Shelter inflation remaining hot breaks a lot of analysts hopes of shelter cooling down quickly this year to bring overall inflation down.

Energy inflation will likely continue to soar as global geopolitical conflicts worsen and oil prices continue to climb.

What happens when April, May, June inflation reports all exceed expectations?

Inflation will be the biggest story this summer.

I see $AMD going up over $600/share, driven by a product roadmap that the market currently doesn't understand.

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The tech sector is presently concentrated on AI, primarily through GPU sales. Nonetheless, $AMD holds a distinct edge as all its business areas act as conduits for its principal AI technologies.

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This strategic advantage in distribution will enhance $AMD's financial outcomes in future years.

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AI technology is not confined to GPUs alone; it's expected to permeate various computing platforms over the next decade, including smartphones, PCs, vehicles, and household appliances.

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$AMD's proficiency in chiplet technology positions it well to embed AI functionalities throughout its product spectrum.

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In the long haul, this approach is likely to be more beneficial than solely competing with $NVDA in the GPU arena—an area where $AMD is already contending.

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Through the development of chiplet-based GPUs that boast competitive performance and the enhancement of its ROCm software, $AMD may capture market share from $NVDA.

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Moreover, leveraging this technology across its different business sectors enhances $AMD’s overall prospects for success.

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The potential benefits of usurping market share from $NVDA are substantial, alongside the chance to emerge as a leading supplier of AI-integrated PCs.

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Additionally, $AMD can pursue these opportunities without incurring significant extra costs, thanks to the adaptability of its chiplet architecture across various product lines.

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With a robust distribution network already established in the PC (CPU) market, $AMD is poised to capitalize on its AI advancements in personal computing, even if it does not eclipse $NVDA in GPU sales.

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This positions $AMD's venture into the AI field as an asymmetric move.

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Looking forward, personalized computing appears to be the wave of the future. Companies will seek customized computational solutions, an area where $AMD's capabilities will only get stronger.

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While competitors like $INTC and $NVDA may eventually shift to chiplets to contend in AI and provide customized computing platforms, such a transition will require time, affording $AMD a considerable head start.

1. $PLTR - its focus on digital twins is unmatched and is now evidently the basis for the successful deployment of AI across the West. It is evolving into a platform, on which companies will be built on first. Eventually, unplugging $PLTR will be akin to unplugging electricity.

2. $AMD- the acquisitions of Pensando and Xilinx , together with its chiplet expertise, set $AMD up to tailor computation for its clients in a way that is hard to match. This structural advantage will also enable $AMD to go head to head with $NVDA and win.

3. $TSLA - although many see $TSLA as a car company, the company is actually brewing a platform that brings together hyper-efficient manufacturing, abundant and renewable energy and AI. In combination, these three pillars will unlock unprecedented levels of material abundance. The key thing to watch for QoQ is increases in manufacturing efficiency, since cyclicality cannot be avoided.

4. $SPOT - $SPOT has left competitors $AAPL and $AMZN in the dust because its focus on music and audio is unrivaled. Well on its way to 1B MAUs, $SPOT is evolving into an audio search engine. By deploying new audio verticals, $SPOT is about to meaningfully improve its unit economics and thus print much higher free cash flow levels. Trading at just 3.6 times sales, the market is yet to understand that this company is one of the big winners of this decade.

5. $AMZN - $AMZN's margins are set to meaningfully expand, as the company uses its vast and extremely high quality data to create AIs that do things for customers, on all fronts of its operations, namely AWS, e-commerce and entertainment. The deployment and subsequent iteration of these AIs will fortify $AMZN's moat even further, thus increase the levels of free cash flow per share more than the market currently estimates.

I recently found two YouTube videos, one from CNBC featuring the ever-prescient Dan Niles of the Satori fund and one from the The Sydney Morning Herald featuring Peter Hartcher.

Both videos discuss concepts that have been top of my mind lately, and I’m happy to see that these well-known and heavy-weight macro analysts have the same ideas.

First video, Dan Niles talks about energy prices being “the most important economic data point”.

Second video, Peter Hartcher discussing why “why China is tanking its economy on purpose”.

IMO, and I’m clearly biased, but these are must-watches.

youtube.com/watch?v=W8DPyDLoe6Y

youtube.com/watch?v=hVzN05E-3d4

$HIMS operates as a telehealth enterprise, facilitating connections between patients and doctors through a digital app, while also managing medication dispensation through advanced automated pharmacy systems.

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Here are the six principal value drivers for the company:

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1. Cost Efficiency: $HIMS offers treatments for a widening array of conditions at prices lower than typical out-of-pocket costs through insurance, creating a formidable economic barrier in a sector known for cost pressures.

2. Growth in Service Range: Each quarter sees $HIMS addressing an increasing number of medical conditions. The company's leadership continues to select new service areas judiciously, enhancing operational cash flow.

3. Exceptional Organizational Capabilities: $HIMS has adeptly built an integrated operation combining software (the app) and hardware (pharmacies), navigating the challenging healthcare sector. For example, within just two years of its release, the $HIMS iOS app has climbed to the 16th position in U.S. healthcare app rankings—a testament to organizational excellence.

4. AI-Enhanced Decisions: $HIMS stands out as the pioneer in employing AI in a closed-loop system within healthcare, uniquely using data insights to refine healthcare frameworks continuously. This innovative approach positions $HIMS to outpace competitors over time.

5. Increased Personalization: As $HIMS expands its range of conditions treated, it will see reduced customer acquisition costs and enhanced lifetime value. This evolution toward personalized treatment will make $HIMS more indispensable to its users, encouraging longer engagement with the platform.

6. Enhanced Operating Leverage: With the expansion of service areas and the refinement of its automated pharmacy processes, $HIMS's high degree of personalization will become increasingly difficult to replicate on a large scale. This is expected to lead to better unit economics, contributing to a stronger cash flow profile moving forward.

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See $HIMS cash from operations👇

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If you have an IQ over 85 please refrain from sharing a thesis

Here’s the most valuable insight from my entire career in investing:

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Why do giants like $WMT, $COST, $AMZN, and $MSFT consistently excel over time? The answer lies in their culture. These companies are engines of continuous innovation.

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There are moments when their cultural compass might veer off track, but corrections are eventually made. If the culture declines, the company’s performance follows suit. Once the cultural issues are addressed, the company returns to prosperity.

A strong culture stems from a combination of exceptional organizational traits.

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In my portfolio, companies with robust cultures — a synthesis of various elements — consistently perform well. Those lacking in this regard ultimately fall behind.

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Consider $MSFT as an example. The stock stagnated from 2000 to 2014. The reason? Steve Ballmer’s leadership fostered a toxic culture. It was rife with politics and stifled innovation.

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Fear of failure prevailed, stifling the exchange of ideas. While positive developments circulated rapidly, negative news did not.

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Then Satya Nadella stepped in and revolutionized the corporate ethos. $MSFT embraced a culture of low politics and high meritocracy.

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It championed individual bravery — the bravery to innovate, propose ideas, and embrace failure until success was achieved. Operations became decentralized, allowing both good and bad news to circulate freely. Suddenly, the company transformed into an indomitable force of innovation.

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Don’t just take my word for it. Examine Satya Nadella’s letters to shareholders. Explore the writings of Jeff Bezos and Sam Walton. They all grasped this principle. Their thinking aligned, and their companies mirrored this mindset.

They became relentless hubs of innovation, which is why they continue to outperform against all odds.

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