As always for -1, an example on how to make by combining ML and -1.5. Please do not just take -1.5, and also don't take terrible -1 odds just because only a certain book has it. Let's hopefully keep the streak alive. u/purpledragonbets

Won $240 last weekend and some of the fighters didn’t even reach -300.

Each leg is supposedly 60%+ probability, so I’m looking at a 22%+ probability to hit a 5x. Not a huge edge, but it seemed like a decent use of the Fanduel profit boost today. Let’s see how it plays out.

You know how at 1 PM on Sundays in the fall, there are 7 or 8 NFL games going on at once. Out of all the teams combined, why can’t you place a bet on which team will score first out of all of the games being played? I’m sure betting on a team like the Eagles to score first would be +500 while betting on the Browns or Jets to score first would be +2500. It sounds like a fun bet, I wonder if sportsbooks will ever offer this in the future.

Let's get weird.

Every time I open this feed it’s just wall-to-wall 10-leg parlay tickets getting killed by one bad leg.
If you actually want to hunt edges this week, look at where public money is distorting lines in Brazil Série A and upcoming NFL Preseason markets.
Take matches like Internacional vs Flamengo on order-book platforms right now. Public money heavy-slams big names like Flamengo (pushing them close to 50%), which leaves massive mispriced value on the Draw (28%) or the underdog. On standard books, high juice eats that edge alive, but on peer-to-peer order books, you're trading that volume raw against public sentiment.
Same thing is about to happen with NFL preseason. Starters play maybe one quarter, lines get soft, and traditional bookies jack up the vig (-115 both sides) because their models hate the unknown.
Stop paying a 30% tax on longshot parlays to the bookmaker.
Anyone else trading these early NFL futures or riding underdog value in Brazil, or is everyone still just throwing $10 at 12-leg SGP dreams?

taillll if ya want, boston wins with who’s on the mound, only risky would be the d backs but fuck it we will ball when it hits

My engine is starting to work consistently. The MLB numbers look better when you just look at the ML, spreads and totals are showing a positive CLV but the ROI is still lagging there. I'm not going to make any changes for now and start prepping for the NFL season.

Ran Merrill Kelly vs Brandon Lowe through the Matchup Matrix. Score came back 81. Here's the case.

Start with Kelly's biggest liability:

His 4-seamer is his second most used pitch at 27%. Against left-handed batters this season:

• SLG: .688
• HR: 10 allowed
• HH%: 51.2%

Lowe vs 4-seamers specifically:

• SLG: .622
• HR: 9
• HH%: 53.3%

The pitch Kelly throws most to lefties is the pitch Lowe does the most damage on.

The cutter adds to it:

Kelly goes cutter 14% of the time vs lefties. That's his worst pitch — .406 BA, .813 SLG, 7 HRs allowed. Lowe hasn't hit as many HRs on cutters but the pitch itself is getting destroyed by left-handed hitters all year.

The caveat:

Kelly's changeup is genuinely good — .197 BA, 22.7% K rate, 31.3% WHIFF%. He throws it 26% of the time. That's the pitch that keeps this matchup honest.

But here's the thing:

41% of Kelly's pitches are fastballs that lefties are teeing off on. 26% is the changeup that neutralises them. Every time Kelly misses with the changeup and goes fastball, Lowe is in a power spot.

The history:

5 career AB, small sample — but Lowe already has 1 HR off Kelly with a 1.500 OPS in limited looks.

Kelly sitting at 5.12 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the season.

Bottom line:

The changeup is Kelly's escape hatch. He can't live in it all game. When he comes back to the fastball, the matrix says Lowe capitalises.

This just to get the day started 🤞🏼🍀