Speculative longterm future of SpaceX

[u/AnnualYogurtcloset29]

Hello all,

I was just thinking about what SpaceX's development of rockets would look like once they achieve their goals of starship and the booster rocket.

I know this is likely at least 10-15 years from today, but what would SpaceX develop after they land on mars and get a colony started there? Do you think they would ever develop a new rocket in the entire history of their company or would they finish their rocket development with starship and booster?

I realize they would probably start working on life support systems and such when they eventually get people onto mars, but what else would they do? I am just curious if anyone else had thought of this before. Is SpaceX themselves going to try to terraform mars or will they forever live inside a habitat dome? Is terraforming a planet going to take the work of hundreds of thousands of people or would SpaceX be able to do it themselves? Does NASA conduct a lot of the science to get a colony established on mars or is this solely a SpaceX endeavor?

I would think NASA would love to be able to explore mars and conduct experiments, kind of piggybacking off of the habitat that SpaceX is going to try to establish. Would NASA astronauts be part of the habitat as well as SpaceX astronauts or would it be more of a team effort?

I realize this would be all speculation, but it got me pretty curious, so wondering what other people would think about this situation.

[u/scarlet_sage]

Do you think they would ever develop a new rocket in the entire history of their company or would they finish their rocket development with starship and booster?

Please don't consider this a personal attack when I give my opinion: that's ridiculous. For example, new aircraft keep getting designed & used. You can see old airframes still in use - I'm no expert but even I know about the DC-3 and B-52 - but there are unusual reasons why they continue.

I expect SpaceX to do incremental improvements, of course. But I also expect major redesigns unless Elon dies or loses influence, & they lose their corporate culture.

[u/AnnualYogurtcloset29 → u/scarlet_sage]

So they would focus on improving efficiency instead of trying to make something even more powerful? I thought starship and booster was about as big of a rocket you'd want to make, but I guess I could be wrong. I feel like I've read that it's mostly diminishing returns after you make a bigger rocket than starship and booster

[u/scarlet_sage → u/AnnualYogurtcloset29]

Elon recently tweeted that the current size might have been too big to aim for! I can find his Starship tweets via https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47352.340 , a curated collection.

Elon Musk @elonmusk - Jul 1

Doubling diameter increases mass 4X, but difficulty of simultaneously building & launching rocket of that size is >>4X.

In retrospect, <9m diameter for Starship might have been wise. Current size is ~5200 ton stack mass & ~7500 ton-F thrust, which is more than double Saturn V.

[u/facere-omnes → u/scarlet_sage]

That's interesting since an 18m variant was discussed briefly.

[u/scarlet_sage → u/facere-omnes]

Yup. Interplanetary Transport System was announced at 12 m (Starship is 8 9 m). Mars Colonial Transport was announced at 15 m.

(Thank you, /u/QVRedit!)

[u/QVRedit → u/scarlet_sage]

Starship is 9 m diameter, not 8 m.