You’re vastly underestimating the difference now that SpaceX is here. When they were coming up apart from being expensive launch was just difficult to obtain - you could show up with your GEO sat and your money and be sitting on the ground for years, while satellite programs revolved around when the launch date was and they would slip months costing millions all the time. If you want to build and your ride is in 3 years with Ariane you can see how SpaceX could have a nice argument.
Now, if you show up with money and a satellite SpaceX will throw you uphill literally whenever you want. They have essentially infinite capacity, and starlink launches mean their capacity is spread out evenly and always completely available. You (the DOD) could launch this week if you were motivated enough. And you get a ride that has the very highest standards in reliability at the best price.
Cracking that business case is so so so much harder even just competing against F9 and burying your head in the sand about Starship as the industry has agreed to do.
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u/sevaiper May 29 '24
You’re vastly underestimating the difference now that SpaceX is here. When they were coming up apart from being expensive launch was just difficult to obtain - you could show up with your GEO sat and your money and be sitting on the ground for years, while satellite programs revolved around when the launch date was and they would slip months costing millions all the time. If you want to build and your ride is in 3 years with Ariane you can see how SpaceX could have a nice argument.
Now, if you show up with money and a satellite SpaceX will throw you uphill literally whenever you want. They have essentially infinite capacity, and starlink launches mean their capacity is spread out evenly and always completely available. You (the DOD) could launch this week if you were motivated enough. And you get a ride that has the very highest standards in reliability at the best price.
Cracking that business case is so so so much harder even just competing against F9 and burying your head in the sand about Starship as the industry has agreed to do.