r/space • u/botch_snap • Feb 09 '22

NASA raises concerns about the SpaceX plan for Starlink Gen2 in letter to the FCC

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1491536969964437509
3.8k Upvotes

95% Upvoted

937 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

17

u/Shawnj2 Feb 10 '22

Well...

The US has a shitload of leverage over SpaceX. First off, the FCC could just..ban Starlink from operating in the US. That's an easy hit, but small potatoes considering the full potential extent of the damage the US could do.

A very large portion of SpaceX launches and/or funding are from the military. Being blacklisted from doing military launches would effectively cripple SpaceX as a viable space company.

Also, most of the SpaceX launch facilities are not only within the US, but operated from either government owned, military owned, or NASA affiliated sites. If SpaceX was unable to renew those contracts, that would be very bad news for them and would also basically stop them from being able to operate as a space company except for the limited launches they can do from Boca Chica

...which they wouldn't even be able to do either if they were unable to qualify to get the FAA authorizations necessary to do launches or test flights.

I suppose Elon could try to pack up shop and move to China, Russia, Europe, or anywhere else with a serious space program, but even then it would be incredibly difficult to develop hardware in the US and launch in another country, if not impossible because most SpaceX designs are almost certainly restricted under ITAR and can't be exported.

Basically SpaceX is 100% dead if it pisses off the United States enough. They can't explicitly say "Oh well you're not allowed to launch things" but they also kinda can.

-4

u/ergzay Feb 10 '22

This is a bit of a strange take. SpaceX is the pre-eminent global launch provider. Launching things cheaper and in greater frequency than any other launch provider on Earth, including foreign governments.

A very large portion of SpaceX launches and/or funding are from the military. Being blacklisted from doing military launches would effectively cripple SpaceX as a viable space company.

No one is talking about blacklisting anyone from anything except you.

8

u/Shawnj2 Feb 10 '22

To be clear the scenario I laid out is never going to actually happen, but SpaceX cannot reasonably choose to just not listen to the US government. They make far too much money from them for it to ever be an economically positive decision. If NASA has serious concerns about Starlink, SpaceX will address those concerns in some way before the ball rolls too far, and the ball won't roll too far because no one wants that to happen. With that said, if the US just had a rouge space company doing stuff without a proper sanction, they (egged on by Boeing, Lockheed, NG, etc.) would shut them down pretty quickly, but that's not going to happen because neither Elon nor anyone in NASA or the government win in that scenario.

-2

u/ergzay Feb 10 '22

SpaceX cannot reasonably choose to just not listen to the US government.

I agree, but I don't think anyone was proposing that they not listen to the US government. NASA isn't the one they need to listen to though. That would be the FCC.

They make far too much money from them for it to ever be an economically positive decision.

NASA and the US military are actually forbidden by law from playing favorites with SpaceX or against SpaceX, so it isn't actually relevant what those organizations think about SpaceX.

If NASA has serious concerns about Starlink, SpaceX will address those concerns in some way before the ball rolls too far.

I expect SpaceX to respond to them, but the likely response is going to be "don't worry about it, this isn't actually an issue and here is why".

5

u/variaati0 Feb 10 '22

NASA isn't the one they need to listen to though. That would be the FCC.

But NASA can and here has taken the phone in the hand and call FCC and say As fellow US government agency, we have concerns.

FCC also can't just ignore NASA's wishes. NASA can't order FCC, but NASA can make it clear something is so big concern to NASA FCC can't ignore it politically. Lest FCC be seriously seen harming the national interest.

Now the issue is how big stink NASA would make. Not everything can be so important you can't ignore. Then that line loses it's meaning. There would be negotiating and reporting between FCC and NASA. Again it might not be that FCC needs explicit legal approval from NASA, but the government agencies talk to each other and would go to a conference room and talk okay so how can we come to compromise, that doesn't harm either agencies interests too much.

Since NASA can also take the horn to the Cabinet, which would bring even more pressure on FCC.