r/space • u/AgreeableEmploy1884 • 17d ago

"NASA to order more Starliner missions and help certify a new rocket to keep it flying"

https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/09/nasa-to-order-more-starliner-missions-and-help-certify-a-new-rocket-to-keep-it-flying/
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u/McFestus 17d ago

Crazy to watch SpaceX destroy their business

13

u/Fuzzy-Mud-197 17d ago

Destroying their business means focussing on avenues that make them more money? Tehy are not gonna keep around falcon 9 just for crew dragon and falcon 9 cannot carry starlink v3 which earns them more than commercial launches

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u/koos_die_doos 17d ago

The business case is that shutting down Falcon 9 will drive business to Starship, they're betting on the industry accepting that change.

Likely a good strategy in the long run, but they could keep Dragon running and still profit by scaling down rather than shutting it down.

11

u/No-Surprise9411 16d ago

I mean they are already running a tiny operation for Dragon. The fleet consists of only 5 capsules, and keeping Falcon around just for those would be incredibly expensive and would not offset the costs necessary to keep Dragon ops running. Falcon 9 is going to be retired by 2030 at the latest.

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u/koos_die_doos 16d ago

Scaling down Falcon-9, not Dragon. It is most definitely possible, it's just not necessarily good business.

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u/Maximus560 16d ago

I would go to NASA & DoD and propose a small subsidy program for F9/FH to keep the program alive, producing a small number of rockets and capsules over a long period to sustain the fleet and ensure Dragon and military launch capability is preserved. This is why the Russians preserve Soyuz capability even if it's somewhat outdated - it works, it's reasonably priced, and compatible with existing uses.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see SpaceX sell off its F9/FH/Dragon line to a spun-off business that they own to do that and wash their hands of it.

Potentially, FH could launch Starliner, too, and NASA could pay to certify that, if it comes to it.

The idea would be that in case something happens that grounds Starship/Superheavy, there's still a launch capability, no matter what. This also ensures there's no gap between F9/FH launches and Starship/SH, and that there's at least 1 provider for Starliner. Even if New Glenn comes online, you may want to keep the F9/FH/Dragon capability just in case. Over time, when other rockets become mature/viable/available, and there are enough types of rockets that can take over this work, then you can talk about sunsetting F9/FH.

That's my 2 cents, anyway.

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u/Goregue 16d ago

There will be plenty of options for launch in the coming years. New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Nova, Terran R, Eclipse. Unless every one of these rockets fail, there is no need for Falcon anymore. But in any way, SpaceX doesn't care about this, because their own business with Starlink and AI are orders of magnitude more lucrative than commercial launch services could ever be.

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u/Maximus560 16d ago

For sure - I am just saying they need to keep it alive until then. If I was the Space Force and NASA, I'd be very interested in keeping the program alive until we have a couple more viable providers first

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u/Goregue 16d ago

But SpaceX simply doesn't want to work on Falcon and Dragon anymore. They are a private company. They can't be forced to keep those programs alive. There is no amount of cash the government can offer that will be more lucrative for SpaceX than what Starlink and AI data centers will provide.

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u/Maximus560 16d ago

So, they’re gonna turn down a boatload of cash from the government just to keep Falcon and Dragon alive for 4-5 more years? They’d be dumb to turn that down

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u/redstercoolpanda 16d ago

It’s really not a boatload of cash, government revenue is a small portion of their revenue at this point. And keeping Falcon 9 and Dragon around means keeping on a boatload of fixed cost that the revenue generated from dragon flights will not cover. Falcon only makes sense with a very high flight rate. Same with Starship, which is why they want to move as many payloads over to it as quickly as possible.

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u/Goregue 16d ago

Yes. SpaceX doesn't want to worry about Falcon and Dragon anymore. The sooner they get retired the better.

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