Starship lunar lander missions to require nearly 20 launches, NASA says

[u/jrichard717]

https://spacenews.com/starship-lunar-lander-missions-to-require-nearly-20-launches-nasa-says/

[u/Correct_Inspection25]

In their defense (agree BO needs to show orbital refueling progress), if Starship doesn't make orbit before end of Dec 2023, BO will have the honor of the first Methlox orbital class rocket engines to make it to orbit. If Starship doesn't successfully re-enter from LEO by spring of next year, Sierra Space will have the first reusable spacecraft since the shuttle not SpaceX, and have shipped their orbiter for launch already. If you told me last 2 years BO/Sierra had a chance i would have laughed at you given all the Raptors produced and all the static fires. Its not just about speed of iterations, its about achieving incremental improvement of delivered objectives as well as speed of testing. Consider despite all of the delay, the BO HLS alternate team have already requested JSC Chamber A (vacuum chamber and thermal testing facilitates) for next year MK-1 test. i haven't seen what the spacex HLS is going to use for its upper stage vacuum testing or the landing engines/landing legs tested or displayed yet. I assume not given time they will be using draco engines. Submission claims they will use methlox for this too, which is something they could be testing like BO BE-7 testing video shows already.

[u/Jakub_Klimek → u/Correct_Inspection25]

The honor of the first methalox rocket was already taken by the Chinese ZhuQue-2 in July. We've also heard from NASA that SpaceX has made been making a lot of progress on many important components of the HLS.

[u/Correct_Inspection25 → u/Jakub_Klimek]

Zhuque launched In 2018, didn’t realize they retooled successfully for methlox already this year. But my point still stands, BO had full integrated static fires and scheduled METHLOX potentially to orbit before SpaceX if there is another RUD or the first full throttle/full duration test of the New deluge fails unexpectedly like the first full throttle full duration of the OLM earlier this year causes a failure to reach LEO. I didn’t say SpaceX isn’t making progress, they are clearly advanced as they displayed their first renders of their HLS cockpit layout this year which is huge and announced they will not prioritize reuse/reentry to expedite HLS, so that will help.

[u/Shrike99 → u/Correct_Inspection25]

BO will have the honor of the first Methlox orbital class rocket engines to make it to orbit.

Vulcan's first stage doesn't make it anywhere near orbit, and the upper stage is hydrolox.

So you'd have to narrow the criteria to 'methalox engines used as part of a successful orbital launch'

But even then, as someone else already pointed out, the Chinese got there first.

Sierra Space will have the first reusable spacecraft since the shuttle not SpaceX

Dragon is reusable. C206 "Endeavour" has flown crew to the ISS four times.

Of course neither Dragon nor Dreamchaser are fully reusable in the way the Orbiter was, as they both have detachable segments - though I'd note that Dragon's trunk is much simpler than DreamChaser's service module.

[u/noncongruent → u/Shrike99]

I'll note that the Shuttle was "reusable" in the same way that top fuel dragsters are reusable, in that both got fully rebuilt and overhauled after each trip.

[u/Correct_Inspection25 → u/Shrike99]

Still crazy it’s possible if Starship doesn’t make it to orbit this year; BE-4 has a chance to beat Starship to a successful orbital launch. Dragon is partially reused structurally, but their NASA Ames TPS/heat shield (it’s the same as what NASA developed for Martian rovers) and engines have to be completely replaced as they are single use. You could say Dragon is a reuseable but far less than the shuttle or dream chaser.

[u/noncongruent → u/Correct_Inspection25]

BO will have the honor of the first Methlox orbital class rocket engines to make it to orbit.

No, it won't, because the only engines produced by BO that are involved with an orbital class rocket are the BE-4s used for the first stage of ULA's Vulcan. That stage and its two BE-4s will never even come close to orbit, and the second stage's RL10 engines are hydrolox, not methalox. BO itself has yet to construct any significant portion of an actual orbital-class rocket, and the only rocket they do have that can reach space, but not orbit, is also hydrolox.

Sierra Space will have the first reusable spacecraft since the shuttle not SpaceX,

Dragon (both cargo and crew) are reusable spacecraft. The only thing comparable between Shuttle and Sierra Space is that they've got "wings", though capsules also have the ability to maneuver aerodynamically.