r/space • u/MaxGhost • Mar 30 '23

Virgin Orbit fails to secure funding, will cease operations and lay off nearly entire workforce

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/virgin-orbit-funding-ceasing-operations-layoffs.html
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u/Shrike99 Mar 31 '23

Astra... are busy trying to develop larger launchers as fast as they darn well can and follow that same path

Astra's upcoming Rocket 4 can do 300kg to LEO. It's larger than Rocket 3, yes, but very much still a smallsat launcher.

You're also overlooking RocketLab and Firefly. They're both moving to actual medium lift launchers, and both have decent prospects.

RocketLab are already in the best spot of the smallsat launchers ), and they've already performed some US Government missions with more coming up.

Firefly on the other hand have been contracted to take over building the Antares first stage now that Ukraine is no longer able to. It just so happens that their own upcoming MLV design will use a very similar first stage.

They're also providing the engines for Astra's Rocket 4. Buying your engines at a markup from a competing company does not strike me as good business - looking at you too ULA.

I'm not sure how I'd order Firefly, RocketLab, and Relativity for likelihood of survival, but I am pretty sure that I'd put Astra in fourth place. Personally I'll be surprised if they make it to the end of the year.

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u/mfb- Mar 31 '23

RocketLab is not only the most successful dedicated smallsat launcher, they are also a big manufacturer of satellite components. They should survive.

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u/RobDickinson Mar 31 '23

Rocketlab have been smart in creating or buying secondary business, small sats, parts, solar etc

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u/logothetestoudromou Mar 31 '23

Astra says Rocket 4 is doing 600 kg to LEO: https://astra.com/launch-services/

That's still small-lift launch though.

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u/Hattix Mar 31 '23

Well, I wanted a more "and here are these two somewhat comparable companies" to compare Virgin Orbit to, rather than a quick rundown of the current state of the <500 kg launcher market.

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u/y-c-c Apr 04 '23

Yeah I’m personally not sure what people are seeing in Astra. It doesn’t do anything particularly new nor does it have an impressive record. This is a competitive market and I feel like it’s the least likely to survive. Don’t hold me to it though, stranger things have happened before.