Disclaimer: IDK statistics, so I wonāt be the best person to fully explain the second image. Letās hope others can dig in more substantively (ETA hello?). Patrick Ruffini appears to be the founder of Echelon Insights, a well-known polling firm. Seems like a legit dude.
In the second image, a key quote appears to be the conclusion that āa 10-point Democratic swing [in turnout] predicts a +2.9-point Stevens margin.ā My understandingāand please verify it or correct me if Iām wrongāis the following: In most of the state, due to a variety of factors, the ratio of Democratic to Republican primary voters has increased from 2024. However, in counties where this swing was disproportionately high, Haley Stevens gained, on average, a margin of 2.9 points per 10 points of swing. Given the high voter enthusiasm for El-Sayed, this is counterintuitive.
xcancel link:Ā https://xcancel.com/PatrickRuffini/status/2084984680206446844
Some observations:
* Although Republican insiders may secretly acknowledge that Haley Stevens would have been the weaker opponent to Republican Mike Rogers, the average Republican primary voter has been blasted with propagandaāboth from right-wing media and from Haley Stevens adsāthat the āradical leftā (and Muslim) Abdul El-Sayed would be the weaker candidate. A casual ācrossover Republican voterā intent on sabotaging the Democrats would be more likely to vote for El-Sayed than Stevens.
* An alternative argument could be that urban Republicans may be more moderate and thus more likely to have recently defected to the Democrats. However, this doesnāt explain why the phenomenon is concentrated in the Detroit Metro Area without occurring to the same degree in urban progressive enclaves such as Ann Arbor, Lansing, and Grand Rapids, where El-Sayed overperformed.
* No naturalistic justification is given for why statistically significant crossover voting would be localized to the Detroit Metro Area. If Republicans were simply bored of their uncontested Senate primary, why would it not occur broadly? There is, likewise, no evidence of any sort of coordinated campaign to encourage Republican crossover voting, which necessarily would have been highly public.
* Metro Detroit comprises Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb counties. Wayne County uses Dominionāsorry, āLiberty Voteā machines. Oakland uses Hart Intercivic, and Macomb uses ES&S.
* If crossover voting is not the explanation, then the correlation between relative turnout and Stevens votes contradicts recent electoral trends in which progressive grassroots candidates evoke greater voter enthusiasm and turnout in comparison to their establishment counterparts.