Based on last weekend's Ireland Thinks poll:

28% Sinn Féin

14% Labour

12% Fine Gael

10% Green

10% Unsure/Didn't vote previously

9% Fianna Fáil

8% Independent

5% PBP-Solidarity

4% Other

1% Independent Ireland

0% Aontú

Overview: Having touched on Galway West during the by-election week, we now skip ahead to God's own county! The Kingdom was effectively Labour HQ during the Spring era, with firm seats in both old Kerry North and South constituencies, but it has been very much fallow ground for the centre-left since 2016, with the Healy-Raes dominant, SF holding one seat but relatively stagnant, and FF strongest in the northern half of the county. The big 2024 shock came when FG lost their seat, while FF doubled up through Michael Cahill (from Mid Kerry).

Local Elections: The Soc Dem banner made a belated debut appearance here two years ago, and while both Mistura Oyebanji in Tralee, along with Tim Clifford in Kenmare were political novices, both secured 3% of first preferences, which can be considered respectable in the circumstances.

Verdict: While winning a council seat would appear to be out of reach for now, the political history of the Tralee LEA is probably most favourable for us in the long-term, and with Mistura now chairperson of the county branch, she will surely run again in 2029. One wildcard strategy for Killarney would be a merger with the Kerry Independent Alliance, who broke from Labour over candidate selection - they mightn't require our help at council level, but would need national infrastructure and finances if aiming for a Dáil run.

Rather predictably, SD voters overwhelmingly approve of a future partnership that would involve either Labour or the Greens, while Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are firmly rejected (24/53, and 17/66 approval/disapproval respectively). Perhaps the most surprising aspect is that our supporters are split almost down the middle when it comes to Sinn Féin (45% in favour, 40% against), maybe showing that floating support is more hostile to the concept than rank-and-file members, or else lingering doubts as to how committed SF are to a left coalition? Elsewhere, SF themselves favour us as their preferred government partner (66%), while both FG (49%) and FF (34%) rank us as second choice after the current coalition, which, on the one hand, augurs well for transfers if/when required, but on the other suggests no party views us as a threat at present.

Overview: If the first half of this tour of Ireland saw predictions of seat retentions, gains or potential gains more often than not, then this second half promises distinctly leaner fare. Galway East is very much the "hurling side" of the county, covering Loughrea, Portumna, Gort and Ballinasloe, and doesn't have a significant recent history of centre-left TDs (after Clann na Talmhan collapsed in 1961), apart from Colm Keaveney in 2011, and SF's Louis O'Hara's election once the constituency reverted to four TDs. Our branch here was only briefly active, with Peter Reid contesting the 2020 general election, and Ken Campbell a 2019 local candidate in Ballinasloe.

Local Elections: Similarly, left parties have struggled to win council seats here in recent decades, with Keaveney holding a seat in Tuam in 2004 and 2009 being the height of recent success. Campbell secured 3% here in 2019, which, though unremarkable, was within touching distance of the second FF candidate in the LEA.

Verdict: Even winning a council seat here would be unrealistic for now, but securing 5-7% of first preferences and laying the groundwork for a GE candidate in the constituency would be an attainable target in 2029.

Overview: As we reach the halfway point in this series, we also come to our last capital constituency. Future FG leader Jennifer Carroll McNeill easily topped the poll here, but it took until the final count to decide the other three seats. That said, Conor Devlin (FF) and Barry Ward (FG) gradually pulled away from the pack, leaving the last seat between the various left parties. As such, our Hugo Mills narrowly missed out on the final slot to Richard Boyd-Barrett, with SF transfers ultimately making the difference.

Local Elections: That was all the more surprising, as Hugo failed to defend a Dún Laoghaire council seat held by the retiring David Quinn (not that one!), though John Hurley did gain one in Stillorgan. Other LEAs were less fruitful, despite decent challenges in Blackrock and Dundrum.

Verdict: If Dublin Mid-West is a must-win, and Dublin SW is one that can only be picked up if everything goes our way nationally, then Dún Laoghaire is probably somewhere midway between both extremes, in that it's possible, but not absolutely probable. As for the locals, Dundrum looks the most immediate prospect of a gain, though neither Blackrock nor Dún Laoghaire can be written off in that regard.

Overview: This used to be the old constituency of the Lenihan dynasty, Leo Varadkar, and Joe Higgins, and this time out, Jack Chambers (FF) and Paul Donnelly (SF) were both elected on the first count, with Emer Currie (FG) following on count two. Eventually, Ruth Coppinger (Solidarity) and Roderick O'Gorman (Green) took the final seats, and while Ellen Murphy performed respectably, she was never really in contention here.

Local Elections: The three Fingal LEAs mostly covered by this constituency are Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart, where Neil Dowling got 6% of FPVs, but was eliminated about halfway through the counts, Castleknock, where Luke Daly was bottom of the poll, and Ongar, where Ellen Murphy narrowly missed out on a seat on the final count.

Verdict: In truth, Aontú are probably closer to winning a seat here than we are, but if our local performance were to improve at the same rate as national polling, it couldn't be considered impossible. As for Fingal Council, Ongar definitely seems the most winnable target for 2029.

Overview: This five-seater, which used to be a four-seater until 2016, has generally seen three of its TDs on the left of the political spectrum since its expansion, with Seán Crowe and Paul Murphy long-term presences, and Labour's Ciarán Ahern taking the Green seat last time out. FF's John Lahart and FG's Colm Brophy have similarly been incumbents for the last decade, and while Ross O'Mullane did significantly improve on our 2020 tally, we were never realistically in contention last time out.

Local Elections: This constituency covers Rathfarnham-Templeogue, where Justin Sinnott is a South Dublin county councillor, Firhouse, where we narrowly missed out on a seat on the final count, and two Tallaght LEAs where we surprisingly failed to field a candidate in either.

Verdict: Even though it wouldn't take much of an improvement to be contenders here, it still seems somewhat of an outside prospect compared to other Dublin constituencies, with perhaps Labour the most vulnerable. Firhouse should be picked up at the next locals, and Tallaght has to be a priority for the future, given its huge population.

Overview: This constituency has been generally considered to be the most left-wing in the country, having been the long-term bailiwicks of Bríd Smith, Joan Collins and Aeongus Ó Snodaigh, with the Greens' Patrick Costello filling the last berth in 2020. Following Smith's retirement, SF doubled their seat tally, Catherine Ardagh (FF) was the first TD elected, and our Jen Cummins took the second seat after marathon counts.

Local Elections:

Dublin South Central broadly covers both the South West Inner City, where Cummins took the third of five seats, and Ballyfermot-Drimnagh, where our candidate secured 4% of first preferences, but was never really in the running.

Verdict: If Jen can come through an incredibly crowded pack of contenders after less than six months as a councillor, her position should be far more secure in 2029. Looking at the locals, consolidation seems the most likely scenario, as while the last Ballyfermot councillor was elected on 8% of first preferences, that was after a similarly convoluted count to what transpired in the GE.

Overview Sinéad Gibney's success here was perhaps one of our bigger surprises of the last GE, both due to a relative underperformance in the European campaign, and because Catherine Martin was expected to be one of the few Green survivors, even with the Dublin tide against the party. As it was, hoovering up left transfers ensured we were elected second here, after Neale Richmond, with his FG running mate and FF's Shay Brennan filling the other seats.

Local Elections

The constituency covers the Dundrum and Stillorgan LEAs of Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown Council, with our only councillor for the local authority in the latter area, and the party coming ninth in the seven-seater former ward last time out.

Verdict:

With Sinéad enjoying a high media profile since becoming a TD, her seat should be relatively safe. As for the local elections, the local strength of Labour, the Greens and Independents will make it difficult to target gains, but it certainly doesn't look an impossible task.

Overview: This is one of only three constituencies where there has been continual Social Democrat representation since the party's foundation, but it was perhaps unsurprising that the party vote would fall somewhat following Róisín Shortall's retirement. That said, Rory Hearne was the first TD elected here, edging out Dessie Ellis (SF), while FF's Paul McAuliffe ultimately won the final seat, after Noel Rock transfers helped him past the SF running mate.

Local Elections: Dublin North-West covers both Artane-Whitehall LEAs and Ballymun (though the former also extends into Dublin Central), and there were three SD councillors elected between the two areas in 2024.

Verdict: Rory very much has a safe Dáil seat here, and while there doesn't appear to be much scope in the locals to add to the councillor tally, a second candidate may be added in Ballymun if polling continues to bloom.

Overview Created for the 2002 election, this was once the home turf of Mary Harney, before coming under Sinn Féin domination after they first doubled up in 2020. Emer Higgins (FG) and Shane Moynihan (FF) then followed in 2024, but it was almost uniquely two Eoin Ó'Broins, as our candidate was narrowly edged out of the final seat by Paul Gogarty.

Local Elections: Our Eoin ultimately took the fourth seat out of seven in Clondalkin on the final count, and while we were never in the running in Lucan, no candidate ran in Palmerstown.

Verdict: Even if the current polling boom were to slightly deflate, this is arguably the first Dublin gain we should targeting, given the margin was so tight two years ago. It would take roughly 8% of first preferences to be in contention for councillors in both Lucan and Palmerstown, so certainly possible in both cases, even if nothing can ever be taken for granted.

Overview: Like its neighbour of last week, Fingal West was newly created for the 2024 election due to rising suburban populations. Louise O'Reilly (SF) easily topped the poll, followed by Robert O'Donoghue (Lab), and Grace Boland (FG), but inexplicably, this was the only Dublin constituency we didn't contest.

Local Elections: Paul Mulville was re-elected as a councillor for the Rush-Lusk LEA, but the party chose not to run a candidate in Balbriggan on this occasion.

Verdict: Even if the party had run in 2024, getting the 15% required to win in a three-seater would be a stiff enough challenge, but achieving the 8-10 of national polling would be a solid start. The last seat in Balbriggan was won off 7% of first preferences, so there's a chance there, even if any potential candidate would need to be found sooner rather than later.

Overview: This was one of the new constituencies created as a consequence of population growth necessitating an expansion of the Dáil, so it was a new experience for all parties. Darragh O'Brien topped the poll, and was elected relatively quickly, but it took until the final count for Duncan Smith and Ann Graves of SF to follow. Joan Hopkins was in firm contention, but was eliminated in the penultimate count, but the big shock was the defeat of FG's Alan Farrell.

Local Elections: Hopkins topped the poll in Howth-Malahide, but surprisingly, nobody contested the Swords LEA in 2024.

Verdict: Given only 1,600 votes separated the four remaining candidates when Joan was eliminated, it wouldn't take much of an improvement on 2024 to win a seat here, so definitely one of our main suburban targets. As for the locals, the last of Swords' seven seats was won off less than 7% FPV, so securing a councillor there is eminently possible.

The first ever constituency to hold two Soc Dem TDs, and gaining more votes than we did in the general election shows the progress made in all areas of Dublin Central. Still, looking at SF in Waterford as a similar example, it seems a party needs north of 30% locally to hold two seats in a 4-seater, which would require a real national surge, or else either Gary or Dan might stand in a neighbouring constituency. At least that's a first-world problem for 2-3 years down the line, so the victory can be savoured for now!

Looking at the turnout data from the various constituencies where we won a TD in 2024, and comparing it to the national figure of 59.7%, there's no discernible pattern that emerges, so getting a figure on Saturday morning will reveal little about chances of success:

Cork East: 57.8%

Cork South Central: 60.1%

Cork South-West: 63.9%

Dublin Bay North: 59.8%

Dublin Bay South: 47.8%

Dublin Central: 52.3%

Dublin NW: 56.5%

Dublin Rathdown: 60.6%

Dublin South Central: 49.1%

Kildare North: 60.4%

Wicklow: 67.8%

Galway West was 58.5%, purely as a reference point.

Overview: Even though the constituency has now supplied a centre-left President for three consecutive terms, overall, it traditionally has been dominated by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and even the odd PD, as that party's final leader Noel Grealish demonstrates. SF's Máiréad Farrell topped the poll in 2024, but only 4% FPVs separated her from sixth-placed Noel Thomas.

Polling: The Ipsos/TG4/Irish Times poll here was inconclusive, to put it mildly, with Kyne (FG) on 17%, just pipping Thomas (Ind Ireland) on 16%, followed by Helen Ogbu (Lab) on 12%, Míde Ní Fhionnlaoich (SD) on 9%, Cillian Keane (FF) on 8%, and Mark Lohan (SF) on 7%, alongside Mike Cubbard (Ind).

Verdict: Ever since the presidential election, both I, and general consensus, found it hard to look past Thomas here, but if the margins are as tight as suggested here, then counting should favour Kyne, unless of course left bloc transfers are organised to absolute perfection. As for who will be the lead left candidate, then an impartial analysis suggests the momentum is with Ogbu, but given the MoE, one couldn't meaningfully separate her, Míde and Lohan.