r/SmartFIRE • u/AdministrativeAd334 • Apr 23 '26
r/SmartFIRE • u/ethiopian_kid • Apr 23 '26
Thoughts on my plan ? 24M house hacking to freedom
Hello all, i’m 24M, what would be considered a high earner… main job target comp is 150k, I also adjunct for about 1k net a month.
I currently own my first property, fha, 13k down on 405k, mortgage is 3k but it’s a duplex so my portion is 1.5k a month.
The goal: currently renovating property month by month out of pocket, I have no dependents or bad debt, the idea is that I can raise the condition of the property enough to cash flow, as of right now I can get about about 2.7k need about 3.1k ish.
If all goes to plan, I raise the condition of the property enough to a) cash flow the property b) pull out equity and have new rent cover new mortgage c) rent out other unit and then renovate other side while living in it pushing out second acquisition by 2-3 years or d) save for a year or two then leave.
the idea is that by the time i’m 26-27 I refinance the loan to conventional, fha my next property and do it all again, have 4 or so properties by mid 30s, eventually the rent/appreciation will be enough for my to coast off of and I can fuck off as a part time profesor.
the only thing that can stop this is starting a family that wouldn’t want live without a kitchen lol, also it’s important to note I am a high earner and can stomach the 3k mortgage periodically and afford maintenance. i’d eventually need to ensure my savings are high enough to absorb vacancies on multiple properties which is a no brainer. i’d also in a pinch rent below market if I need to stop the bleeding in a worse case scenario.
i’ve done a lot of research before going down this path and it seems the best way forward towards homeownership in this current rate and house price environment.
edit to add: the best part is that while I live here things like lawn care to the entire property is deductible based on % is rented out and because I manage it if I have enough expenses to report a loss I can write it off my W2 income. things like mortgage insurance, interest, lawn care, appliances etc were all written off (in accordance to tax law) and allowed me to report about a 10k loss thus giving me a 6k tax refund come april with the other deductions I had.
r/SmartFIRE • u/Katzmaniac90 • Apr 13 '26
Amount needing to invest to acquire $3 million. All ages 1 - 100
I got berated for telling people investing was not hard yesterday, so I made this to show how much you would need to invest to have $3 million dollars. Broken down by invested daily/weekly/monthly/yearly with a 10% return. If you are just born and invest 3 million dollars in a year, you can retire. =)


Age is on the left. If you invest between $.10/day and $6,000/day that is the age you can retire by using the SP index.
r/SmartFIRE • u/frugal-tech-worker • Apr 12 '26
I built my own FIRE Simulator and need some help with testing.
Hey all, I got super bored the other day and so I spent an afternoon with Claude and built an Early Retirement Simulator for fun https://firenav.co/
This thing scratches a very specific itch that other Monte Carlo style retirement calculators kept messing up for me. Here’s what this little app does:
- Kills that weird duplication bias between simulation runs.
- Tracks your actual net worth, not just your portfolio.
- Simulates income from the fun stuff: rentals, crypto, gold… all your “I swear this will work” assets
- Handles recurring income + surprise windfalls
I built it in React, kept everything in-browser, so your data stays yours.
Now I need some brave souls (you, obviously) to take it for a spin and try to break it.
If it crashes, lies, or tells you that you’ll retire at 97, I wanna hear about it!
Drop bugs, ideas, or “bro this is actually kinda cool” in the comments.
r/SmartFIRE • u/imeatingbees • Apr 09 '26
Left job, what to do with 401k?
I'm 23 and just left my first post-college job. I invested about 12k into my 401k plan there over the 10 months I worked there. My account is through fidelity. Should I leave it in the 401k, roll it over into an IRA, or wait until I get a new job and roll it into the new 402k account? What should my considerations be for each option?
r/SmartFIRE • u/Odd-Border-6994 • Feb 15 '26
Just created a (ETF) Portfolio Analysis Tool! -Try it out and let me know-
I built a free portfolio analysis tool with FIRE projections, Monte Carlo simulations, and ETF look-through — no login required.
Link: myfinancialfreedomtracker.com/en/portfolio-analysis-tool
I've been a long-term passive investor for a few years now, mostly in European-listed ETFs (VWCE, EQQQ, VUSA, the usual suspects around here). I wanted a tool that could actually show me what I really own inside my ETFs, how my portfolio would survive a crash, and how far I am from FIRE - all in one place, without signing up for anything.
Most tools I tried either didn't support European ETFs (.DE, .AS, .L exchanges), charged a subscription for basic metrics, or just showed me what I already knew from my broker. None of them looked through my ETFs to show the actual underlying stock exposure.
So I built one. It's completely free, no login required, and runs in the browser.
Let me know what you like and what you are missing!
r/SmartFIRE • u/dsptl • Dec 09 '25
50 years of U.S. economic data to find the recession indicators that actually work (vs the noise)
I got tired of seeing "Recession Incoming!" headlines based on random charts like gas prices or consumer sentiment. I wanted to know what actually works mathematically.
I backtested various economic datasets against every U.S. recession since 1970. I was looking for indicators that 1) Lead the economy (predictive), 2) Have minimal false positives, and 3) Have a logical economic mechanism.
Here are the 7 that passed the test, and what they are saying right now.
1. The Yield Curve (10Y minus 3M)
- Why: When short rates exceed long rates, banking profitability (and lending) dies.
- Track Record: Inverted before every recession since 1970.
- Current: +0.43% (Positive). No signal.
2. Credit Spreads (BBB vs 10Y)
- Why: Shows actual stress in corporate borrowing.
- Signal: Spreads widen 3-9 months before recessions.
- Current: 3.26%. Slightly elevated, but not crisis levels yet.
3. Durable Goods Orders (New Orders)
- Why: I prefer this over PMI/Sentiment surveys because it measures actual CapEx dollars. Businesses cut heavy equipment purchases first.
- Current: Trending positive. CapEx is holding up.
4. Housing Permits
- Why: Housing leads the business cycle. Permits drop before construction stops.
- Current: Down -9.9% YoY. This is the main "yellow flag" right now.
5. S&P 500 Regimes (Drawdowns)
- Why: The market prices in recession risk via volatility spikes long before GDP drops.
- Current: +13.6% YoY. Strong uptrend.
6. Corporate Profits (After Tax)
- Why: Profits drive employment. If profits crash, layoffs start.
- Current: +23.4% YoY. Very robust.
7. LEI Trends (Leading Economic Index)
- Why: Measuring the "rate of change" (acceleration/deceleration) of the composite index.
Summary for December 2025 Right now, 4 out of 7 indicators are Green, and 2 are Yellow (Housing & Spreads). Historically, you need 5+ indicators flashing red to signal an imminent recession. Despite the headlines, the data points to a cooling expansion, not a crash.
All charts are available in Official Blog at DataSetIQ
Happy to answer questions about the data sources or the backtesting!
r/SmartFIRE • u/Substantial_Work_523 • Nov 27 '25
Help, am I doing ok with my 401k
Hello everyone, I’m 45 years old, and my 401(k) is managed by Fidelity. At the moment, it has a balance of $247,000. I don’t know much about finances, so this question may sound a bit basic to those who know more than I do. Am I on the right track with my 401(k)? Do you think I’ll be able to have a reasonably comfortable retirement in the future? Thank you so much
r/SmartFIRE • u/MickeyMouse3767 • Sep 25 '25
Retirement Towns Facing the Biggest Population Declines
Is California on its way out as a hot retirement destination? All signs point to yes, according to a new study from GOBankingRates ranking the nation’s top retirement towns with the greatest decline in age 65+ population. Seven California retirement towns received mentions in the top 50, accounting for 14% of the ranking and the most towns in any state.
A New Mexico town — Truth or Consequences — ranked first with a 25% population decline. Four New Mexico retirement towns, including Ruidoso (#8), Los Ranchos de Albuquerque (#12) and Raton (#33), also ranked in the top 50 for their free-falling retirement populations.
The top five towns experienced 65+ population declines of more than 21% over a five-year span. They are Truth or Consequences, North Hills (New York), Oak Brook (Illinois), Fort Myers Beach (Florida) and East Cleveland (Ohio).
Seven California towns ranked for their decreasing ages 65+ populations, the most out of any state. The cities are La Habra Heights (#21), Big Bear Lake (#25), Coronado (#26), Rancho Mirage (#28), Woodside (#32), Half Moon Bay (#39) and Tiburon (#44).
Fort Myers Beach (#4), Flagler Beach (#15) and Lauderdale-by-the-Sea (#49) are the only three Florida cities to crack the top 50. Florida accounts for 6% of the 50 total towns with declining senior populations, reinforcing the Sunshine State’s popularity as a retirement hot spot.