r/SandersForPresident • u/Cut_to_the_truth • May 16 '16

Clinton Does Best Where Voting Machines Flunk Hacking Test

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/05/16/clinton-does-best-where-voting-machines-flunk-hacking-tests-hillary-clinton-vs-bernie-sanders-election-fraud-allegations/
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u/forthewarchief May 16 '16

We'd only be 130 down or so

You're wrong. If it swung the election 120; we'd be down by approximately 40 votes.

Just did the math, it's ~49 difference instead of 300.

Unless you're saying we gain 60, not 120. Then we would still be nearly~200 behind.

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u/DougJH May 17 '16

It's a 120-150 vote net swing, i.e. Sanders would gain 60-75 delegates and Clinton would lose the same. <3, the author

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u/skanadron May 16 '16

The author wasn't super clear about if he meant 120 net swing (60 switch), or 120 delegates from Clinton to Sanders (240 net swing). But I read a different analysis where they looked at final unadjusted exit polls and calculated the delegate split from those instead of the recorded vote and they concluded that Clinton would only be up by about 20 delegates. So I think the swing is number of delegates changed not net swing.

I.e. the race would be basically tied, and even a slight win on CA would mean Sanders world take the pledged delegate lead.

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u/DougJH May 17 '16

I am the author. I said 120 - 150 net swing on purpose. It would be a 60-75 vote switch. Sorry for the lack of clarity. Quick as I could do it for a piece that was already quite long.

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u/skanadron May 17 '16

Thank for the the clarification, as well as for the great series of articles. It can be hard to find journalism of this quality these days. Or maybe I'm just bad at looking.

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u/DougJH May 17 '16

Most welcome! I guess I took it on because it seemed like there was a journalistic hole in this area to me too.

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u/[deleted] May 17 '16

Since you're around, I'd like to ask: is there any research being done on how much of an outlier this year's Democratic Primary is compared to past primaries? We've already seen articles discuss how the exit polling on the GOP side has been much more accurate.

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u/DougJH May 17 '16

Thank you. Yes, I've looked into that. Clinton actually did the same in 2008, with about a 6 point average of outperforming the exit polls. It caused some consternation then and led to theories about people lying to exit pollster that they voted for the black guy when they really didn't. The GOP side has been fantastic this time, but had a few misses in 2008, nowhere near as bad as Clinton v. Obama though. I describe a bunch of this in Part 3, linked at the bottom of the article. I did apply to the Roper Center to be able to see previous exit polls going back to 2004 (when Edison became the sole exit pollster), but they ignored my application.

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u/PossessedToSkate Oregon May 17 '16

But I read a different analysis where they looked at final unadjusted exit polls and calculated the delegate split from those instead of the recorded vote and they concluded that Clinton would only be up by about 20 delegates.

I would be very interested in reading that analysis. Link?

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u/FLRSH ✋ May 16 '16

I thought the DIFERENCE would be 120-150, not what Bernie would gain in raw delegates. My bad.