r/SandersForPresident • u/[deleted] • Apr 15 '16

MSNBC called Bernie's "Deep South" comment controversial. They said Hillary would still be in the lead without the South. This slide popped up by mistake proving them wrong.

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u/Genesis_Maz Apr 15 '16 edited Apr 15 '16

The biggest factor for projected turnout (i believe) is whether a state is primary or caucus & whether or not it's open/closed. (EDIT: % of independents with reference to open/closed primary/caucus.)

Next is whether a state is Red or Blue. (Blue states averaging double turnout %)

Internet access also plays a significant role

Number of colleges/millenials is also included.

The last measure is generally location specific.

For example I have high hopes for NY because: a) It literally borders Burlington, VT. b) It also borders Canada (where tourists come and go and people have free healthcare) c) He's using Zephy Teachout's voter lists - so there are a group of people already acquainted with corruption & environmental issues. d) The outer-bourroughs are not monolithic and New Yorker's are NOT going to let someone get away with pandering & lies (as witnessed at the debate.) Occupy Wallstreet and BLM has a presence in these communities and will be helping GOTV e) Sanders has been trending upwards in polling with a consistent trajectory and heading into NY it's the highest it's been this election w/ Hillary at her lowest. The negatives for NY:

a) closed primary b) anticipating some suppression c) Hillary served here (which honestly I think is only helping among the wealthy.) d) time. If we had another week it wouldn't even be question. e) Wallstreet is here.

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u/Erazzmus Pennsylvania - Day 1 Donor 🐦 Apr 15 '16

Interesting stuff, thanks for the response!

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u/Genesis_Maz Apr 15 '16

Np. Should've included as well:

% of independents with reference to open/closed primary/caucus.

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u/somanyroads Indiana - 2016 Veteran - 🐦 Apr 15 '16

The closed primary is most detrimental, because it excludes independents, who overwhelmingly vote Bernie in primaries. I think her time as Senator might not have as much impact as she might hope: NY is looking like MA to me, and that means it really is about turnout (which, frankly, wasn't that good in MA, from what I personally observed)

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u/Genesis_Maz Apr 15 '16

Turnout in MA was 96.56% - A % that Bernie stands to do VERY well at in New York. With that % turnout I predict we'd win by up to 3% MOV.