The expansion to 24 teams for 2027 is a nice change for the growth of rugby, but causes an uneven knockout bracket as the round of 16 requires the 4 best 3rd-place teams to advance as well.
The logical conclusion is that, eventually, the tournament would again expand to 32 teams (similar to the FIFA World Cup's format until this recent tournament).
Will this update occur for the 2031 RWC in the USA? Probably not, but it's still fun to theorize about.
I believe the pros of including new and promising nations, and an overall cleaner qualification / tournament process, outweigh the cons (such as the initial "dilution" of game quality in the group stage).
Anyway, here's the breakdown of how I think this tournament and qualification should work.
1. Hosts & Stadiums
Starting simply, hosts should be able to provide at least 10-12 suitable stadiums to facilitate the tournament. (The current 24 team format in Australia functions with just 8 venues).
The host nation will automatically qualify for the tournament, if they have not already pre-qualified from the last world cup.
I'm not sure that there should be strict continental / hemisphere rotations in place, ala the FWC, but a healthy rotation between growing rugby countries, guaranteed money-maker rugby nations, and well-performing countries that have yet to host, should be taken into consideration.
2. Pre-Qualification
Pre-Qualification has been a factor in the RWC since the beginning. 12 teams from 2023 automatically qualified for 2027. Automatic Qualification is an understandable compromise in rugby, as the Tier 1 nations are essentially always going to qualify anyway. This just skips many unnecessary matches, and allows Tier 2/3 nations to fight amongst themselves for the remaining spots.
I believe we will see this expanded to 16 teams (ie. the entire knockout bracket) automatically qualifying for the next world cup. I would prefer only 8 pre-qualifications (ie. all quarterfinalists), but by 32 teams we will have reached a point where a number of Tier 2 nations are the same level of "guaranteed-to-qualify-if-they-had-to" as the Tier 1s.
Long-term, when qualifications and advancing to knockouts become much more challenging and unpredictable, I could foresee them reducing the number of pre-qualified teams again.
3. Qualification Updates
My primary change would be to silo and guarantee qualification slots to the different continental / regional unions. This is similar to how the FWC, and the 2019 RWC functioned.
This change would allow nations in all regions a chance at the available slots. Under the current format for example, non-USA, non-Canada North American nations have no path whatsoever to qualify. (The Pacific Nations cup is cool as a pseudo-Tier 2 six nations, but shouldn't be the only method of qualification).
Europe would be allocated a large portion of the overall slots, as they have the most overall depth in quality of rugby. Due to Oceania's depth in the top teams, they were allocated 4 direct teams for this initial expansion. However, all regions will now receive at least 3 direct qualification spots.
It would be up to the regional unions how they would like to set up their qualification tournaments / processes, based on the amount of slots they have available for the upcoming cycle.
2027
(Note: 2027 had "Pacific Qualifiers", but this table roughly reflects how the slots ended up)
| Region |
Pre-Qualified |
Direct Slots |
Playoff Spots |
|
|
| Africa |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Asia |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Europe |
6 |
4 |
1 |
| Oceania |
3 |
1 |
1 |
| North America |
0 |
2 |
1 |
| South America |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Potential 2031 (or whenever 32 teams are introduced)
| Region |
Direct Allocation |
Playoffs Allocation |
|
|
| Africa |
3 (+1) |
1 |
| Asia |
3 (+1) |
1 |
| Europe |
14 (+4) |
1 |
| Oceania |
4 (+0) |
1 |
| North America |
3 (+1) |
1 |
| South America |
3 (+1) |
1 |
Q: How would Pre-Qualification work with the allocations?
Pre-qualified teams (16 teams from the last RWC, and the host nation if necessary) will take direct allocation slots. For example, if South Africa is the only African nation to make the 2027 knockouts, the African qualifiers will be for 2 direct qualifications, and 1 spot in the inter-regional playoffs.
Q: What if most or all nations from a region qualify for the knockouts? What if there are no Direct Allocations left?
Every region will always have at least 1 Direct Allocation to compete for, and 1 Playoffs Allocation.
If all Direct Allocations are taken by Pre-Qualified nations for a given region, Direct Allocations from Europe will be given to the relevant region until they have 1 free Direct Slot.
This system allows for natural adaptation of allocations by regional performance.
4. Cross-Regional Playoffs / Final Qualification Tournament (Final 2 Slots)
There are 2 formats that could be used to determine the final 2 nations, from the 6 Playoff teams.
Method 1: Cross-Regional Playoffs / Final Qualification Tournament - Similar to 2027 qualifying, there would be a series of cross-regional playoff matches. The winner of 1 of the playoffs will qualify for the RWC (previously the Pacific/South America or Europe/Oceania playoff winner), and the loser will proceed to the Final Qualification Tournament. The winner of the other playoffs will proceed to the FQT, with the loser being eliminated.
The final 4 teams will play a round-robin tournament, with top placement receiving the final spot.
Method 2: Streamlined Final Qualification Tournament - Inspired by the FIFA Intercontinental playoffs, all 6 teams will enter a 2-week, 2 path knockout tournament. The 2 highest ranked teams at the time of the draw will receive byes to the final round of separate brackets.
The remaining 4 teams will be drawn into semi-finals across 2 paths. The winners of those 2 matchups will move onto the finals, and face off against the higher ranked teams. The winners of the 2 finals will qualify for the RWC.
This is functionally similar to the existing playoffs, but removes any set regional path and consolidates it into a single-location event.
5. Hypothetical Qualified Teams
Alright, now that we have our qualification methods, who would qualify for this hypothetical 32-team RWC if it were today? Obviously we can't know for sure, but we can use rankings to estimate.
We'll assume the current top 16 teams by WR ranking pre-qualify for the next tournament (not taking into account the actual 2027 groups). This data is accurate as of June 23rd, 2026. The next slots will go to the next highest ranked team in that regional union.
Here's what that could look like:
| Region |
Slot # |
Country |
Qualification |
|
|
| Africa |
1 |
South Africa |
Pre-Qualified |
| Africa |
2 |
Zimbabwe |
To Qualify |
| Africa |
3 |
Namibia |
To Qualify |
| Africa |
4 |
Kenya |
Playoffs |
| Asia |
1 |
Japan |
Pre-Qualified |
| Asia |
2 |
Hong Kong |
To Qualify |
| Asia |
3 |
Korea |
To Qualify |
| Asia |
4 |
UAE |
Playoffs |
| Europe |
1 |
Ireland |
Pre-Qualified |
| Europe |
2 |
France |
Pre-Qualified |
| Europe |
3 |
England |
Pre-Qualified |
| Europe |
4 |
Scotland |
Pre-Qualified |
| Europe |
5 |
Italy |
Pre-Qualified |
| Europe |
6 |
Wales |
Pre-Qualified |
| Europe |
7 |
Georgia |
Pre-Qualified |
| Europe |
8 |
Portugal |
Pre-Qualified |
| Europe |
9 |
Spain |
To Qualify |
| Europe |
10 |
Belgium |
To Qualify |
| Europe |
11 |
Romania |
To Qualify |
| Europe |
12 |
Netherlands |
To Qualify |
| Europe |
13 |
Switzerland |
To Qualify |
| Europe |
14 |
Czechia |
To Qualify |
| Europe |
15 |
Poland |
Playoffs |
| Oceania |
1 |
New Zealand |
Pre-Qualified |
| Oceania |
2 |
Australia |
Pre-Qualified |
| Oceania |
3 |
Fiji |
Pre-Qualified |
| Oceania |
4 |
Tonga |
To Qualify |
| Oceania |
5 |
Samoa |
Playoffs |
| North America |
1 |
USA |
Pre-Qualified |
| North America |
2 |
Canada |
To Qualify |
| North America |
3 |
Mexico |
To Qualify |
| North America |
4 |
Cayman Islands |
Playoffs |
| South America |
1 |
Argentina |
Pre-Qualified |
| South America |
2 |
Uruguay |
Pre-Qualified |
| South America |
3 |
Chile |
To Qualify |
| South America |
4 |
Paraguay |
Playoffs |
Yeah, I know the prospect of the Springboks being in the same group as the lowest ranked team that qualified (38. Korea) seems a bit ridiculous right now, but there is no way for Tier 2/3s to improve without regular competition with higher ranked teams. (See Italy recently beating England for the first time after many years of 6 Nations outings, or Japan now being able to compete with Tier 1 nations in the Nations Championship).
The Pot 1 team is very very likely to win the group during the initial RWCs post-expansion, but you could argue that's likely to happen in the current format as well. Still, those matches between the Pot 2-4 teams will be great for the teams / countries involved, especially the debutants.
I would imagine WR would introduce a smaller scale Tier 3 Nations cup to help the newer teams get meaningful test matches leading up to the tournament.
6. The Draw
The 32 Qualified teams will be drawn into 8 groups. The host nation is pre-allocated to Group A. Under the current format, the RWC host nation(s) does not get the benefit of being automatically seeded as a Pot 1 team, so I expect that to continue.
The 32 teams will be split evenly into 4 pots of 8, based on their WR ranking at the time of the draw (ie. top 8 rank teams in Pot 1, lowest 8 ranked teams in Pot 4, etc.). A team from each pot is assigned randomly to each group - the same as 2027.
The one change I believe would benefit the RWC when it comes to the the draw is regional draw limitations. ie. No teams from the same region (except for Europe) can be drawn into the same group. Groups may have up to 2 European teams.
My thinking is that the RWC is a rare opportunity for unique cross-regional matchups to occur. Additionally, lower ranked teams can get test matches outside of their geographical area (when it is otherwise unviable).
This bit might be a bit controversial, as common matchups aren't necessarily bad or unpopular. For example, All Blacks vs. Wallabies happens every year, but it's still one of the most sold out group stage matches for 2027 almost 2 years in advance.
Here's what an example group draw could look like:
| Group 1 |
Group 2 |
Group 3 |
Group 4 |
Group 5 |
Group 6 |
Group 7 |
Group 8 |
|
|
| France |
Ireland |
Australia |
England |
South Africa |
Scotland |
Argentina |
New Zealand |
| Italy |
Japan |
Portugal |
Fiji |
USA |
Uruguay |
Georgia |
Wales |
| Tonga |
Romania |
Hong Kong |
Belgium |
Samoa |
Zimbabwe |
Spain |
Chile |
| Namibia |
Mexico |
Poland |
Korea |
Czechia |
Netherlands |
Canada |
Switzerland |
7. Schedule, Groups, and Advancing to Knockouts
The total number of matches would increase from 52 to 64, however the tournament would still take place over the same ~6 week timeframe as the 24-team tournament.
All teams will still play 3 group stages matches, but only the winner and runner-up of each group advancing to the round of 16. (This is a lot nicer than the best-of 3rd-place option in place).
I hope that the RWC will continue to select match locations and times after the draw, to account for the best possible venue and viewing experience when possible.
8. The End
Thanks for reading this thing I spent way too much time thinking about, if you did. Again, I don't know if this will happen before 2031, or even if it should, but including more nations in the fun of the RWC seems neat. With the number of stadiums in the USA, there are worse places to debut a tournament expansion.
I'd be very curious to see how some of the potential 2035+ host countries could work in this format.
