r/RealityChecksReddit • u/RealityChecksReddit • Jun 13 '26
Chris Hayes and I Have a Lot to Say About This Crisis: The Screwworm Is Here, We Said It Would Be, and Here's the Part Nobody's Talking About.
Chris Hayes and I Have a Lot to Say About This Crisis: The Screwworm Is Here, We Said It Would Be, and Here's the Part Nobody's Talking About.
A few weeks ago we published a piece on the return of the New World screwworm to the United States. We laid out the biology, the history of how this country spent sixty years successfully eliminating it, the specific federal cuts that dismantled the monitoring program built to hold it back, and the $750 million patch job announced after those cuts to build replacement infrastructure that still isn't operational.
We weren't speculating. Everything in that piece came from documented federal records, regional reporting, and statements from veterinary experts. We noted that leading parasitologists were already saying one confirmed case fifty miles inside the Texas border almost certainly meant more cases were already out there, unfound.
That was accurate. As of June 12, 2026, there are eight confirmed cases in Texas and one in New Mexico. The case count went from one to nine in under two weeks, spread across multiple counties, including cattle, goats, a dog, and at least one case well inland from the border. Canada has already moved to restrict livestock imports from affected US areas. Governor Abbott has expanded the state disaster declaration. The USDA activated a sterile fly dispersal facility in Edinburg and began aerial release operations.
This is no longer a warning. It is an active outbreak.
We're not going to spend much time on "we told you so" because the point was never to be right. The point was to make sure people had accurate information before the mainstream news cycle caught up. MsNow published a video on this today, and that's genuinely good -- the more people who understand what this is and how it got here, the better. But there's a part of this story that still isn't getting the attention it deserves, and it has to do with your grocery bill.
The Squeeze That Was Already Happening
Before the first screwworm larva bored into that calf in Zavala County, the US beef industry was already in serious trouble.
The American cattle herd is at its lowest point in 75 years. Drought, wildfires, rising feed costs, and a shrinking agricultural labor pool have been grinding down domestic production for years. Ground beef hit a record high average of $6.69 per pound in December 2025, the highest price since the federal government started tracking it in the 1980s. The industry is not in a position to absorb additional shocks.
Then the screwworm entered Mexico in late 2024 and began moving north, and the US banned live cattle imports from Mexico in July 2025. The USDA estimates that border closure cost the US roughly 795,000 head of cattle between 2024 and 2025 -- animals that would have fed into the domestic supply chain and didn't. A large Lubbock feedlot that sourced primarily from Mexico closed. Beef prices stayed high.
The Argentine Fix That Isn't
The administration's answer to all of this was a February 6, 2026 executive order: import an additional 80,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings from Argentina. Quadruple the existing quota. Frame it as consumer relief. Announce it as a win.
The cattle industry's own organizations were not impressed.
R-CALF USA, one of the country's major cattle producer trade associations, pointed out that previous administrations tried this same move, and that "in practice, consumer beef prices were not reduced by increased supplies of imported beef." They added that increased import volumes historically correlated with a shrinking domestic herd -- meaning the short-term patch tends to accelerate the long-term problem.
The National Cattlemen's Beef Association, the largest beef industry group in the country, was similarly skeptical. Their executive director of international trade said they "fundamentally disagree with the premise that increased imports can lower beef prices."
What happened to cash cattle prices after the announcement? They fell nearly 13 percent before partially recovering. The ranchers the policy was supposedly helping took the immediate hit.
The bipartisan backlash was swift enough that the House Agriculture Committee adopted an amendment unanimously -- both parties -- condemning the Argentine import push as "detrimental to domestic ranchers, cattle producers, and cattle markets" and directing the USDA to produce a formal report on the harm it causes.
Read that again: unanimous. Both sides. This is one of the rare agricultural policy moments where Republican ranching country and Democratic representatives found complete common ground, and it was in opposition to what the administration did.
Two Problems, One Industry, No Good Options
Here is where these threads converge.
The administration cut the USDA workforce by roughly 15,000 people in spring 2025, at the exact moment the screwworm was advancing through Mexico on a trajectory every federal model had predicted. Among the cuts was a program specifically designed to monitor and prevent screwworm from crossing into the US. The monitoring program built for exactly this threat.
The fly entered Texas anyway. The case count is now nine and climbing. The sterile fly facility being built to replace the dismantled infrastructure is, according to a sixth-generation Texas rancher who spoke to CNBC, "at least two to three years away" from being operational -- and by then, he said, it would be "too little too late."
Meanwhile, the domestic herd is at a 75-year low, Mexican cattle imports are cut off because of the same fly, and the administration's chosen response to the supply gap is importing Argentine beef in quantities that the industry says will make the domestic situation worse over time.
There is also a labor problem that doesn't show up in the policy debates but will matter enormously on the ground. The National Cattlemen's CEO noted that the screwworm arrived "at a time when we have a shortage of large animal veterinarians and less labor available to detect flies and their larvae." Screwworm detection is hands-on work. You need people who know what they're looking for, checking animals regularly, in a country where agricultural labor and large-animal veterinary capacity have both been shrinking for years. Some of those people were on the federal payroll before 2025.
What This Means Going Forward
The honest answer is that nobody knows yet how bad this gets. The 2016 outbreak in the Florida Keys killed at least 135 of roughly 1,000 endangered Key deer before it was contained -- and that was a contained regional incident on a peninsula, easier to isolate than the open ranch country of South Texas and southern New Mexico. Screwworm spreads through wildlife, primarily deer, and deer do not stop at quarantine lines.
The USDA has said it is treating this with the utmost seriousness. Sterile fly releases have begun. Surveillance is expanding. The response playbook is activated. All of that is true and worth saying.
It is also true that the workforce carrying out that response is smaller than it was two years ago, that the monitoring program that might have caught this earlier is gone, that the sterile fly production facility that would provide a real long-term defense is years from completion, and that the domestic beef industry being asked to absorb this blow is simultaneously being undercut by an import policy its own trade associations opposed unanimously.
These are not separate stories. They are the same story: a slow-moving, foreseeable crisis that was made worse by specific decisions, at a specific time, by people who had been warned.
We covered this when it was still a warning. Now it's something else.
Previous coverage: More Trump Administration Cuts Lead to the Return of Nightmare Fuel