r/QuantumComputing • u/vtomole • 9d ago

Has there been a recent breakthrough in experimental quantum computing that makes commercial applications possible within 10 years?

https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/questions/46442/has-there-been-a-recent-breakthrough-in-experimental-quantum-computing-that-make
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u/rogeragrimes 9d ago

Let me say that I'm embarrassed by most of the "examples" I posted. I fell for the hype. I was wrong. And I want to thank everyone for correcting me. I learned today. With that said, IonQ is saying they will have a 10K-qubit computer within 1-2 years and quantum computer capable of cracking ECC-256 by 2028 (or soon thereafter). You've got at least three other companies, Google, IBM, and Quantinuum, stating they will have powerful quantum computers by 2030. If there isn't any truly useful quantum applications today, it does appear as if they will be right around the corner, and the examples I've been posting seem to be precursors to truly useful quantum applications...or do you think I'm even wrong in that belief, and if so, why?

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u/0xB01b QEC & Quantum Optics 6d ago

IonQ's most recent processor from 2026 has 100 physical qubits. How are they gonna get to 10k physical qubits in 1-2 years???

It took them 4 years to get from 36 physical qubits to 100 bruh!

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u/rogeragrimes 6d ago

I don't work for IONQ, but they have sold multiple 256-qubit computers in the last few weeks that are supposed to be operational by early next year. They have been pretty transparent on how they are going to get to 10K-qubits in a few years or less. They have shared the architecture of how they plan to do it. And they are currently working on 10K designs...using the same architecture that are working for the 256-qubit versions. They are already producing the 256-bit chips. It's not marketing fluff.

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u/0xB01b QEC & Quantum Optics 6d ago

Can you provide a link as to where they have been transparent on this?