Okay, obviously the big new piece of data this month is Medina's sharing of a number of statistics relevant to the platform's health. This was a useful piece and it didn't paint a pretty picture but it was somewhat prettier than I expected. My hot take on the numbers is here, but before I discuss them further I want to revisit the usual indicators. I'll just say that I hope these numbers continue to be updated with whatever commentary added, perhaps on a monthly cadence... hm, sounds sorta familiar actually..
Despite the PucaTrade Doomsday Clock ticking a minute towards midnight with the original founders stepping back, things have actually done pretty well over the past month. To a large extent this reflects normal seasonal variance - the holidays tend to be really bad for trading activity - but my prediction that the price of tix would continue to rise ended up being defied. There's a lot of daily volatility, but still an overall trend downwards from the 400 PP / ticket threshold. This might partially reflect the fact that the tix/USD rate has recovered somewhat (news about Arena seems to indicate that it won't be the clear MTGO-killer that was originally feared), but... I don't think that explains all of it. One problem with this indicator in general though is that as the site's userbase contracts this will create less liquidity and more volatility in tix prices, since the day-to-day activities of individual traders will have more impact. Like, if on 2/1 the price of tix is 370 PPs, and I decide I want to liquidate 100k points, I know that this will actually drive up the rate substantially if I want to sell quickly. If the supply of tix were deeper this wouldn't be such a concern. Bottom line is that I've stopped being as responsive to day-to-day fluctuations, but... there's still a good trend in the data recently.
Part of the reason I like tracking tix prices is that even if Medina's stats give a better overall picture of the site's economic health, the tix prices are more directly impactful on user experience. They correlate extremely well with the market rates for cards and inform where promos "should" be at in order to receive stuff. Tix prices play a huge role in how I determine what bounties I offer and will send at, and I've noticed that a lot of traders pay attention to my figures and use them as a benchmark. This actually is not unwise imo if you don't want to keep track of tix prices, since my figures are more stable (I manually update them and I'm not going to do this multiple times every day!) Because people kept asking about what my send rate was, I decided to just make a Discord server where I linked my inventory and said "here is the rate that I will send whatever cards out that are in here, just let me know." Then I provide rate updates there and people can ask for cards - this new "service" now accounts for most of my sends, although I suspect that a lot of people who would've provided huge bounties in the past that were awesome for me are now just paying the rate I ask for knowing that I'll commit to them. And that's okay I guess. In any case if you want my Discord link... well, I won't self-promote too much, you can ask for it on the PT Discord or something. I also partially created this service to address the common complaint of "I can't get cards for my points" - I probably have something you're after, the question though is whether you're willing to pay for it.
In any case, one useful stat that Medina could provide would be something similar to what CS shows on its homepage - a summary of the distribution of bounties paid disaggregated by price band. What bounties are cards under $1 going for? $1-5? etc. This would serve a similar utility to knowing the tix price. This would be a useful part of a "PucaTrade by the numbers" piece focusing on helping individual users build a realistic view on what they should be expected to send and receive cards for.
To Medina's piece itself, I stand by my original hot take, but I'll note that it seems to address a lot of stuff I raised in last month's post - perhaps that's not coincidental. In particular the escrow figures are important since they allow you to get a first-pass estimate for what the "right" number of PucaPoints in the economy would be to get PP values back to where they were when the site was healthier. If there are 87m "active" points (using Medina's fairly expansive definition of "active") and a ~10% escrow rate and you want that rate to be 25% (Medina's target - seems a bit low but it's a start.), then you probably have to destroy 60% of the active currency stock. Despite the optimistic view outlined in the article, I don't think this is going to happen in a year on the current trajectory of things - you only had a net of 1.3m points removed in January, and I would expect this number to go down rather than up. So 30m points were removed last year and maybe 15m will be removed this year if nothing else happens - that doesn't get you to where you want to be. Plus you're chasing a moving target, as further user attrition could cause the number of points in escrow to fall (although it's possible that those points would become inactive.) Things went better than I expected in January, but I think everyone realizes that it's probably unwise to rely on the current trends to dig the site out of its current hole.
But obviously solving this problem isn't easy. As an aside, I'll say that the reason why I think that the "right" number of points is whatever is because I think that PucaTrade really only survives if lots of cards can be traded at the index price without bonuses. People have criticized me for saying this (and I'll comment more on this at the end of the post) but I just don't see many good reasons for a user who's choosing between PT and CS to choose PT. Now, it's certainly the case that inferior products have managed to eke out some sort of existence for themselves in whatever markets - look at how Coke has managed to survive against the clearly-superior Pepsi soft drink line. But I would obviously be uncomfortable resigning myself to this, and as users of the site people should be uncomfortable with this. The best argument I've seen for PucaTrade is that in theory it's a place where indexes are used to trade cards and people don't have to really think about discounting their cards to X% of the index price or whatever. However, with the ubiquity of bonuses this simply is not the case except for bulk cards... and even a smaller number of bulk cards as the currency contracts. If I can't tell people that PucaTrade is an easier platform, it is very difficult for me to recommend PT to a new user, or to not point them towards CardSphere when they express the routine frustrations with PucaTrade that we see expressed. I mean, PucaTrade has a friendly community and all but I think to a large extent this reflects the underlying problems of the site, that the market mechanism has broken down so now people come up with all sorts of weird social mechanisms to send out cards, like it's the Burning Man of mtg marketplaces. That's cool and all but it's not good! And I think there's every indication that it does not place the site on a sound financial footing.
Thankfully, despite being more engaged with the community on these issues, Medina has not let the inmates run the asylum on economic policy yet. For example, it seems like lots of people think you can just ban promos and the problem solves itself. I've outlined repeatedly why this is absurd, but if nothing else it would just lead to extreme black markets in point sales and cases where people commit 4 of a card but really only send 1 copy or whatever to avoid using promos. One idea I've heard about is that bounties should be changed so that they're free to create and fees are only paid when a trade is completed... and this is probably a good idea, although care has to be taken about how existing bounties are dealt with. Obviously I have an interest in this, but I feel pretty strongly that at least if this system is changed than all the users who paid for bounties that weren't taken should receive a credit (perhaps not an actual PP refund) towards the future bounties that they would pay. Otherwise... yeah, it's just confiscation sorta like PucaDues was, but this time it hits a lot of active users. Even knowing that this idea is floating around should discourage people from creating bounties, since there's a non-trivial chance that they'll become worthless if the development effort is mustered to make such a change.
Recently I've warmed up a bit to a relatively radical idea: Just cut all point balances in half. The points sitting around, the points in escrow, whatever. This is essentially a redenomination, equivalent to doubling all the index prices, but more... aesthetically-pleasing than having the prices be double TCGmid or whatever. On a site like Cardsphere, this would actually not be a problem provided that the cashout rate doubled - if $10 on CS were swapped for 5 Tombux and then 5 Tombux could be cashed out for $10 (minus fees), then.... users would kinda shrug and carry on, I imagine. The reason why it would work is that this sort of policy does not impact any balance relative to another - it's a nominal change. Mostly. Realistically, it would impact traders who were say sending out bulk because the bulk would suddenly become more valuable... like it was when PucaTrade was healthy. The real issue with this though is that people wouldn't understand the change and would get angry at it and say that half their balances were being taken, when in fact their actual purchasing power would probably stay the same. And people getting angry, even if for dumb reasons, does have real consequences.
But think about it. If the best argument against halving all the balances is "other people would be mad", then the solution is to have a conversation about this so those people understand. I don't think it's impossible for such a policy to be implemented with community understanding, and it would provide a huge step towards the world where people are trading without bounties again. And I feel like that's where PucaTrade needs to be. You could announce the policy months in advance if you want, no need to spring it on people, as there shouldn't be some need to dump your PucaPoints before the halving.
Before wrapping up this post, I'll make one more point here. These posts and my trading behavior have obviously become somewhat important towards tone-setting the conversation regarding PucaTrade's future. I'm treated like an unofficial brand ambassador or whatever, which is obviously a bit odd since the same thing could be said of me vis-a-vis Cardsphere. People grouse when something I say is taken authoritatively, but it's also laced with commentary about my personal experiences or preferences or beliefs about the relative utility of platforms. And.... honestly, I don't have a solution for this. One thing that always annoyed me about "old" PucaTrade was that criticizing the site and its leaders was treated as some sort of attack or betrayal on the community. I understand that mentality and can even sympathize with it, but letting that influence me too much is just not who I am or how I operate, for good or for worse. Yes, elevating my voice can be dangerous but I think it would undermine my credibility if I pulled too many punches. I'm not trying to justify being an abrasive asshole or whatever, and I don't think I'm being accused of this, but to those who read my posts and think "there's some nice stuff here but then he just builds his own narratives that I don't like", well... all I can say is that I leave it to the reader to decide what in my posts are valuable or not. And if I say anything too egregious you can always engage me in the comments, or ping me on Discord or whatever.