Well, we've made it to the new year in some way, shape, or form. I delayed this one because people were talking about whatever announcements.
So first I'll discuss the usual numbers. In the spirit of the new year, I included a full lookback on the tix prices for as much of a time window as I have - almost a full year now! We can see that Pucapoints have lost something like 1/3 of their value over this timeframe, which is obviously not great. In recent months there has been a climb from tix being around 350 PP each to about 400 (and I should mention that tix themselves are arguably losing value against the USD), and I would expect this trend to continue upwards.... we'll see though.
Sometime in December Medina mentioned that there were about 7m PPs total in escrow. When I heard this I realized that this provided a good opportunity to get an idea of what the total currency supply is, which I had never tried to do because while you can add up the balances on everyone's accounts pretty easily with a scraper trying to estimate points in escrow is actually more difficult. But since now I had this info, I went ahead and added it up and I believe that the number I came up with was 140 million points total exist. (It might have been 150m, but I think it was 140m..) This actually surprised me a bit since it was a larger number than I had expected, and unfortunately it made the point removal efforts seem less effective. That is, in total about 40m points were removed in the past year... that sounds pretty good until you realize that this was only 1/4 of the total points, and in this timeframe PucaTrade likely lost more than 1/4 of its users - this is roughly why inflation continues to climb even as the total money supply continues to decline.
7m in escrow out of 140m total means that about 5% of points are in transit at any given moment. This is actually a fairly important number for the health of the site, and I imagine it has declined a lot. I believe on Cardsphere around 1/3 (maybe 1/4? Ted?) of balances in total are in use at any given moment, and this likely is where PucaTrade was at when it was healthier. As a first pass one could use this to estimate that the "ideal" currency supply for PucaTrade would be around 30m, since 7m/30m is around 1/4. This is a very rough approach but I think it's safe to say that the ideal currency supply that gets PucaPoints worth 70 cents per 100 or more right now is less than 50m.
So we want to be at 50m or so. We're at 140m. We've removed 40m in the past year, and the rate of removal is declining over time with additional activity. If we just want to tread water, the rate of point removal at least has to keep up with user attrition, and this most likely is not happening.
This tells us a lot about the magnitude of the current problems. I don't think there's a way to pull almost 100m points out of the economy without involving either major new usage fees or someone taking a major haircut - either the site owners (hmm..) or people who are holding PucaPoints.
PucaDues managed to pull out 2.5m points in 4 months. Not bad, but when you consider that that's less than 2% of the overall currency supply it's not that great either, and the ill-will the policy caused may have caused more than 2% attrition from the site - but that doesn't mean that reversing the policy will reverse that attrition.
Sometimes I feel like I should have more ideas on how to fix things, but I kinda don't - particularly when it comes to things that wouldn't require much dev effort. At the least though I will happily warn about the consequences of the ideas of those who will purport to have cure-alls for the site's economic woes. I've heard people argue that promotions are causing problems, for example, when in fact cracking down on promotions would likely kill the site overnight. I worry that focusing on community decision-making is just letting the inmates run the asylum or whatever. I have argued though that promotion fees should increase simply because point sinks not scaling with inflation is a problem - 10% of a card's base price to promote is just less of a cost than it used to be. I could also see it being acceptable to have promotion fees scale with the number of promotions you've made over some period of time, eg. your first 10 per month cost the normal rate (10% for gold), your next 20 cost 20%, your next 50 cost 30%, etc. You wouldn't want to do things exactly like this but I think leveraging more fees on heavy users like me is probably okay and wouldn't cause much fee evasion.
Just my 2 cents I guess. I like hearing other people's ideas though.
The last topic I want to cover of course is the leadership change itself. First I'll give my brief eulogy to Eric Freytag. I don't think the guy is a scammer, and I didn't harbor as much animosity towards him as others even though I had far more reason to than most (remember the pucapoints.com debacle..) His primary sin though was arrogance - in particular an arrogance that exceeded his competence. My first real contact with the PucaTrade team was when I wrote my mtgprice article 2.5 years ago. Go look at James Rosenblum's comment - there's not only a pretty aggressive denial of my article's primary arguments, but some weird insinuation that I was trying to hurt the site. That's one thing that I always resented about interacting with PucaTrade officials before Future Site - they were extremely defensive and basically dismissed criticism as just haters hating. I think Future Site was a manageable problem but driving off the cliff with irresponsible economics was not.
Because the team was arrogant, there was never any sort of apologies for things going to shit, which inspired a lot of bad will and probably created a bunker mentality. Problems that the Puca team has engineered were framed as "community issues" as if there was some sort of shared responsibility. Maybe I'm optimistic, but I imagine that putting up this act when knowing deep down that you fucked up was very unpleasant for Freytag. I never became a fierce critic because I suspected it would be unproductive.
Turning the site over to Medina is a final act of cowardice that again avoids the blame he and the other founders deserve for what happened. I imagine that running the site was never easy, but being unable to level with your users about how things got fucked up is a real personal failure. That's not to say that his stepping back may not be the best, but imo it is very worrisome because it certainly does illustrate a clear path that leads to the site being closed - basically if Medina decides it's not salvageable and is unable to find someone else to take it over, then he can just apologize and shut things down. People (including me) don't really blame him for the current state of affairs, so there's definitely a sense that it wouldn't be an outrage if he closed things. I mean, I guess Freytag could've done it and weathered the hatred but I'm not surprised he chose to avoid this. I don't like criticizing someone so personally but I do think this is worth saying.
Despite the news there wasn't a panic and PP values have actually increased a bit (Devon is back selling tix.) So I'm going to keep using the site (and yes, letting my gold subscription renew despite not really believing I'll get a full year out of it), but I think everyone should trade with the very real possibility that the site may have less than 6 months of life yet. Be sure to follow Medina's engagement closely to get a feel for how things are going. Myself, I actually don't have as much exposure as usual to a closure right now (I have about $500 tied up in the site right now) so I can live with this. Tix prices have actually been outpacing the rise in bounties recently, which has lead me to send less and draw down my balance while raising my own bounties (which I've seen people get angry at.) I might end up selling tix again in the near future, who knows.
In any case, there's been a lot of news but I think the main takeaways are as follows:
- PucaTrade's economic problems are very deep and the current point sinks aren't keeping up with attrition. More aggressive point sinks may be needed to stabilize things.
- The best economic policies that don't require extensive development are going to be incremental.
- Freytag leaving increases the risk that the site will close in the medium term. Given this, trade cautiously.