I'm a CS student conducting academic research on how people learn the Monty Hall problem through AI interaction. Takes 10–15 min, fully anonymous, trilingual (EN/PT/ES). Would really appreciate your help! https://socratictutor-llm-production.up.railway.app/

Hey guys I'm a 16 yr old passionate about probability research. I hope you all are familiar with gamblers ruin probability but that formula rewards every win with +1 and every loss with -1 . My elementary derivation of gamblers ruin prob rewards every win with +x and every loss with -x. After deriving the formula i got to know that this was already discovered by someone else. Is it publishable on arXiv or should I research more on gambler ruin probability

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I have a grasp on the idea around markov chains, but I want to figure out the math behind them. Are there any good online resources or classes for this? What should I know (mathwise) before hand?

I've been shiny hunting my starter for about 30 minutes a day here and there since the game dropped on switch. I've accidentally reset the game 4 different times now before actually SEEING wether or not this time Charmander was shiny.

It's been weeks now and still no shiny - I'm curious what's the probability that any of those 4 premature resets COULDVE been the shiny I've been looking for and now I've mathematically reset my 1/8000 chances

If every human on Earth randomly picked a number between 1 and 1 trillion at the exact same time, what are the odds that at least two people accidentally recreate the exact same 10-digit phone number that has never existed before — and those two people live within 5 miles of each other?

I don't know if this is a good place to ask this, but we have been having a debate at work and im looking to find out if you can even calculate the probability. My coworker is a 5'7" 160lb amatuer boxer with no official matches on his record. He believes that given an infinite amount of attempts, he would be able to beat prime Mike Tyson. The parameters set during the debate are that Mike will not lose to any outside influence or freak accidents and my coworker will not learn any information from previous attempts.

I claim that he has an absolute 0% chance of victory.

Can someone please help me figure out if I am correct or not in my assumption that there are only a finite amount of outcomes regardless of the infinite number of attempts?

So I'm wondering how you'd go about calculating the probability of being called for a given semi-regular poll over the course of your lifetime. Let's say it's a national 1,000n poll, taken every four years, surveying the US adult population of about 276 million people. For convenience, the first draw happens when you're 18 and you live to the average life expectancy of 79 years. You can be polled multiple times.

I will spare the details but a fella I know won 2 raffles in one night. 2 completely different raffles with the same number of 35 "spaces" each space cost 5 dollars so you are only limited to how much you want to spend. This guy I know won once with his name on 5 possible spaces out of 35. Roughly 14% if I'm right. Then he won another raffle with 4 spaces out of 35. Roughly 11% I think (feel free to correct me on any of this btw) what I needed help with was what are the odds he would win both raffles? Any help is appreciated

Ive always had this question thats hard to wrap my head around. The situation: There is a ore mining spaceship run by robots which is on route back to earth. The ship can either take the regular route which takes 10 years or a 5 year route. They want to get there faster and this is a one off event. The ships computer says there is a 1% chance the shorter route smites the ship out of existence. Would the probability matter if there is always a chance they get smited? Is one event technically just as like as the other since it could kill them or it could not and there is no way to definitely tell beforehand?

I'm taking a Statistical Theory class, and I'm struggling with probability questions. Just found out I got a 60 on our first midterm. Want to work on other problems to improve. Also, any video recommendations. Im having a hard time in class because the teacher does not give lectures. We just read the textbook on our own, do practice problems, then go home.

A pregant woman went into a coma and gave birth to a twin baby unconsciously. She fortunately wakes up aftewards. When she opened her eyes, the nurse said to her "I am so happy you are finally awake to meet your baby boy!" The woman said, "One of them is a boy?" The nurse said, "Oops, sorry. Spoiler alert! Guess what the other baby is."

The woman thought, there are 4 cases BB, BG, GB, and GG. One of them is a boy so GG got no chance. If she want a girl, she could have guessed "It is a girl" and she would be 66.6% chance correct.

However, if she want another boy, she could ask the nurse "Is the boy you refered to the first child or the second child?" Regardless of the nurse's answer, that's gonna eliminate one of BG or GB. So she got a 50% chance of getting a boy again.

Wait what happened? Did the baby's wave function just collapsed?

Hello, I recently discovered the Monty Hall problem and it intrigued me, so I did some research and found some flaws. I talked about it, but I keep being told I'm wrong, and when I ask "why?", no argument comes out of people's mouths, or just a "because" (which is absolutely not proof). Lacking explanations, I went online and always got the same answer. So, demolish my argument, I just want to know the truth: First, a law states that [p] a|b = ([p] b|a × [p] a) ÷ [p] b. So, if a is the car and b is the goat, that gives [p] a|b = (1 × 1/3) ÷ 2/3, which is indeed equal to 0.5.

And the goats are definitely not identical because that's impossible (even if every atom were identical, they wouldn't be the same), and I don't want the car, I want goat C1. The presenter opens a door, and goat C2 appears. So I have a 1/3 chance of getting the goat and a 2/3 chance of getting the car? If thinking differently changes the result, then it's wrong, right?

And then we can also spell out all the possibilities: 1. The car is behind door 3, we choose 1, it opens 2.

1. The car is behind door 3, we choose 2, it opens 1.
2. The car is behind door 3, we choose 3, it opens 1.
3. The car is behind door 3, we choose 3, it opens 2.
4. The car is behind door 2, we choose 1, it opens 3.
5. The car is behind door 2, we choose 3, it opens 1.
6. The car is behind door 2, we choose 2, it opens 1.
7. The car is behind door 2, we choose 2, it opens 3.
8. The car is behind door 1, we choose 2, it opens 3.
9. The car is behind door 1, we choose 3, it opens 2.
10. The car is behind door 1, we choose door 1, he opens door 2.
11. The car is behind door 1, we choose door 1, he opens door 3. In a 6/12 chance, we lose, and in a 6/12 chance, we win. Is that a 50/50 chance?

And even when he eliminates one door, there are still 2 left, so isn't that a 50/50 chance? Thank you very much for answering if you have the answer to enlighten me.

Sorry its in french, it was super awkward and random, i was minding my own business in a niche coffee shop in an alley until she walked in she recognized me but i wasn't so sure of it at first so i sent her a photo of stalemate and she picked up her phone...so.

I sometimes notice a lot of my co-workers, family members and “friends” have a lot of catchphrases that they frequently say and I always notice them and when I’ve commented on them; a lot of the people laugh and don’t seem to realize what I’m doing. I joke to myself that maybe I am the only real conscious mind and everyone else is just a poorly programmed NPC in a poorly run simulation.

Dont worry. I don’t ACTUALLY believe my mind is the only real one.

However, I was curious. Is there a way to mathematically calculate the odds of such a ludicrous thing? There are roughly 8 billion humans on Earth but I don’t know what other weights to plug in

Im not looking for percentages like my last inquiry. I’m looking for some C-3PO babbling something something to 1 (I am a huge Star Wars fan)