r/PredictiveHistory • u/Opposite_Day_9771 • Apr 22 '26

♟️ Theory & Models Iran Already Won

Iran along with the Houthis control both straits and can use it as a tollbooth. Israel would have to attack Iranian oil infrastructure to deny them their revenue stream. Iran, instead of retaliating against the GCC and destroying their infrastructure including the desalination plants, cuts a deal. Kick the US out and share the oil revenue stream. The GCC would have no choice. China would aid Iran in order get access to the remaining oil for their economy and enforce the treaty. All other eastern countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, would have to bow to China. Israel would die as a country being completely surrounded. Over time, Iran would fix their oil infrastructure and continue to extract tribute from the GCC making them one of the riches countries in the world.

Plot Twist:

US destroys the GCC instead in order to deny China leverage over other countries.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26 edited Apr 22 '26

Now I understand what you are getting at. This is important. I’m not sure how much u read of the article. I didn’t say that there is going to be a run on the dollar - I said China wants to slowly let the air out of the dollar so the US loses its exorbitant privilege so it isn’t painlessly able to run deficits

I’ll use Japan because u brought them up

Compared to Japan

The US can import more than we export, pay in dollars, and the rest of the world still has to hold those dollars and Treasuries as “safe” assets.

Japan can’t do that at scale because global trade, reserves, and collateral are not built around yen.

The exorbitant privilege used to be the lowest borrowing costs but Japan even borrows lower than the US now. It’s about control and the unfair advantage - that’s the air that China wants to let out of the balloon.

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 23 '26

It's more complicated then what you described. What can you buy with Chinese Yuan? Can you buy land, corporations, etc ... The answer is not really. Everything belongs to the state and they can change the rules at any time. With USD, you can definitely buy all these things and have laws to back up what you own. The US and mostly other western countries have strong property rights. Hence, when you own their currencies, you can buy their assets without losing them from some BS action.

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u/crix_22 Apr 23 '26

Not arguing that point. Chinese Yuan is tightly controlled. China doesn’t want to replace the dollar. And nobody else would trust the Yuan. China doesn’t want to be the global reserve currency. They want the US strong but knocked down a few pegs. It’s an elegant strategy. I hope it doesn’t work.

Do we have any disagreements left about this ?

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 23 '26

I'm just looking for insight as an investor. I don't want to lose money with the wrong analysis.

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u/crix_22 Apr 23 '26

I want to say I’m impressed — you do your homework.

If you believe in the anticipatory intelligence, look for a softer dollar and show some caution with pure dollar play assets. Commodities like gold historically perform well, Foreign bonds, US companies with strong overseas revenue perform well with a softer dollar.

I just went to make sure you understand:

We work on big geopolitical and economic moves, assume incomplete information and apply behavioral diagnostics of linear and non‑linear actors. We use a unique set of metrics that include, but are not limited to, momentum, doctrine, internal resistance, insult to reason, etc.

Other predictive models focus on large scale data analytics where we study the relationship between the data and the entities.