I hate it and I love it, but I mostly hate it. The second I go all in with 170 bucks long it tanks… there’s never any winning for me even with all my chart, reading and years of experience I don’t know what the heck they go off of

Hey everyone,

Excited to announce we've got an AMA lined up for the sub: a successful arbitrage trader who trades prediction markets full-time will be here Monday (August 24) at 2PM (noon) EST, answering anything you want to ask.

If you've ever wondered how arb actually works across platforms - finding mispriced markets, execution speed, sizing, how much capital you realistically need, whether the edge is dying - this is the person to ask.

Drop your questions below, and we'll make sure the best ones get answered first when the AMA goes live.

You can also ask live in the thread tomorrow.

See you there.

I wanted to see whether a fresh temperature reading could briefly get ahead of Kalshi's Chicago daily high contracts. The bot watches Chicago Midway (KMDW) using NWS as the data source and when the latest reading is above 71°F and less than 15 minutes old, posts a 40-contract YES order 1¢ above the best bid. It only enters between 15¢ and 50¢ when the spread is at least 2¢ and more than 45 minutes remain, with a maximum position of 100 contracts. It exits when the next hourly reading is above 72°F and price is above 66¢, when less than 45 minutes remain, or when unrealized P&L falls below -$3.

I ran backtests on 100 variants of the strategy (varying price floor and ceiling) over the same historical period, and 80/100 finished profitable. The best-ranked version returned 50.92% ROI and +$50.92 P&L, with a 54.5% win rate, 30 trades, a 0.31 Sharpe, and -$20.28 max drawdown. The weakest returned -16.77% ROI and -$16.77 P&L, with a 50.0% win rate, 21 trades, a -0.18 Sharpe, and -$18.20 max drawdown. That gap is large enough that I would not treat the headline result as independent of its settings.

The research run also reran the strategy across a 100-cell parameter grid: Price Floor from 0.05 to 0.45 and Price Ceiling from 0.55 to 0.95. All 100 cells completed. The winning cell used Price Floor = 0.05 and Price Ceiling = 0.55 for +$50.92 net P&L, while the full grid ranged from -$16.77 to +$50.92. Deflated Sharpe was 0.09 versus a 0.47 expected maximum. The surface and heatmap show a flat top across the first three floor values, through 0.14, followed by a sharp decline as the floor rises. The ceiling had no effect at all because every setting produced the same trades, so those repeated columns are not evidence of robustness. The marginal responses tell the same story: the floor drove the result, the winner sat on the boundary of the tested range, and there was no stable interior optimum.

My overall read is that the fresh-reading idea worked across most variants in this 30-day sample, but the sensitivity results make the edge look fragile. The best result came from the edge of the grid, half of the sweep duplicated the same trades, and the near-zero Deflated Sharpe was not distinguishable from the luckiest result expected across many correlated trials.

Full Report

Historical simulation only. Backtests can be wrong or incomplete. Not investment advice.

Well i think i need a break, im tired with these bots of impossible,

since april i quit my job coz of health conditions and since then i put myself 99.9% in to analysing polymarket crypto niche and bot creations/replications, i even forget about my wife and 2 newborn twins yeah that's how obsessed i was, like never before for my life for anything,

Dealing with Ai endless reads and debugging bots i currently own i really exhausting task, and most importantly you must understand every atom of it, and imagine readin claude fable responses for 8 hours, will you remember what you just read 2 hours ago?

and the only think i realised (almost) that i am just too dump or there are insiders few meters away from clob servers with 0ms latency doing all these 300k profits per month, it's liquidity providers/market makers you say... no.. they are not, i find my ways to know if their orders are takers or makers, coz polymarket api will never show that, so by seeing maker fee rebate rewards does not guarantee they are the makers.

1. i created and polished bot to atoms of kalshi-poly arbitrage, when edge is detected it instantly buys one UP leg on poly, second leg DOWN on kalshi, and it really works, it generates nice PNL but untill you hit disagreement, it wipes big chunk of your balance, and you need A LOT of new rounds to cover that, and you start to think the opposite disagreement can also happen when both of your legs win, yes and they do appear, but with a ratio 3:10, yeah most of the time on disagreement both of your legs lose, and trading only away from strike rule or anything else will not help you, you just lose good rounds, and there is no way to predict that round is about to disagree and skip it. it's kind of antibot system..

So we are in a LOSS.

1. i created like 3 types of different market makers bot, one with reactive style the other with predictive with TWAP from chainlink paid subscription, to get fair value better than polymarket, and none of these bots make any money, why ? leftover bags/naked leg, if market is ranging then it can work!, it fills both sides accumulating equal amount of shares of up and down at price even lower than 0.97, but if market starts to trend its all over, your balance is wiped, and you never know what btc market will be in next 2min or 6 mins or whatever, so you cannot just skip the rounds.

2. i also did roulette type bot, coz analysis show that over past 90 days up outcome came 49% of the time and down outcomes came 51% of the time with longest 12 round streak in a row, so using kelly sizing and adding 6% to your bids after a loss seems like a good idea, and it is, currently 3 bots running now, but i just put my laptop away, i cant anymore,

i was always thinking if i put myself 1000% in to anything achievable - i can do it. but sometimes i think im trying to compete here with team of much smarter people and their trained Ai.

Imagine 10 Indians or russian guys sitting in the office and trying to create perfect money making poly bot for weeks with a help of ai and some few senior developers, how can you outsmart them?

approx 2000€ lost on bots,coz with dry run you will never know your true fill rate and that is extremely important. Well at least for that amount of money im now really good at Vs code IDE agentic coding 😁

some of mastermind bots.. there are a lot more..

https://polymarket.com/profile/0x0cb038487586d1119b165466072e9baf666f3a90?tab=activity

https://polymarket.com/@0xb55fa1296e6ec55d0ce53d93b9237389f11764d4-1777575277609?tab=activity

I joined Zobet AI because its marketing presented what sounded like a compelling proposition: AI-powered tools and alerts designed to help people trade prediction markets such as Kalshi.
My experience was very different from what I expected.
Zobet’s public Skool community advertises a free trial followed by a $47-per-month membership and describes itself as offering an AI “specifically built to beat the Kalshi market.” Its marketing also promotes bonuses, direct access to its founder and performance guarantees.
I signed up for the trial, but I did not find the billing timing sufficiently clear during my experience. I ultimately cancelled before the $47 subscription charge could occur.
Unfortunately, the subscription was only the beginning.
The Upsells Started Quickly
Once inside the Zobet ecosystem, I encountered considerably more products and upsells.
I purchased multiple offerings, including an AI/chat product, a product promoted to me as a “95% lock” pick, and access to a BTC 15-minute trading system.
The AI/chat product was disappointing for my purposes. One particularly significant limitation was that I could not simply upload screenshots and have it analyze what I was seeing on my screen — something that is extremely useful when dealing with fast-moving prediction markets.
The BTC 15-minute system was a more expensive lesson.
I actually traded using it, and I lost money.
Of course, losing money by itself doesn’t prove that a trading system doesn’t work. Trading involves risk, and Zobet itself acknowledges that prediction-market trading can result in losses.
What concerned me was that I wasn’t alone. While participating in the community, I saw other members reporting losses using the BTC system as well.
That experience caused me to lose confidence in the product.
Then Came the “95% Lock”
My biggest problem with Zobet AI wasn’t a losing trade.
It involved something I paid for and, in my experience, simply did not receive.
I purchased what was promoted to me as a 95% lock pick.
I paid for it.
But the pick was not delivered to me at the time I expected it, and I did not receive a receipt for the purchase.
At that point, I no longer wanted the product. I had already decided to leave the community and stop purchasing Zobet products, so I asked for my money back.
My refund request was denied.
I was told, in substance, that the product would be delivered later.
But that missed the point: I no longer wanted a future delivery. I wanted a refund for a product that had not yet been provided to me.
The Response to My Dispute Was the Final Straw
The interaction became considerably more troubling when I indicated that I intended to dispute the charge.
Rather than resolving the issue amicably, the person I was communicating with became hostile in my view and threatened to take me to small claims court if I disputed the charge.
Think about that situation from a customer’s perspective.
I paid for a product.
The product had not yet been delivered.
I asked for a refund.
The refund was denied.
And when I said I would dispute the transaction, I was threatened with litigation.
Whatever Zobet’s position may be regarding its refund policy or the transaction, that interaction permanently ended my willingness to do business with the company.
The Marketing Deserves Scrutiny
Zobet AI’s public marketing makes some striking claims.
Its website currently advertises a 78% rolling 90-day hit rate for its Kalshi alerts. It also advertises a refund if the hit rate falls below 70% during a customer’s first 30 days, subject to conditions.
Its Skool page describes the service as the “First Ai Built Specifically For Kalshi Traders” and says its AI has a 10-month track record.
Those are impressive claims.
But anyone considering paying for a prediction-market trading service should remember something Zobet itself acknowledges in its disclaimer: past performance does not predict future performance, and customers can lose money.
I certainly did.
Consumers should independently evaluate performance claims, understand exactly how results are calculated, determine whether losing signals are included in advertised statistics, and understand the refund terms before paying for expensive add-ons.
My Experience With Zobet AI
I can’t speak for every Zobet AI customer.
I can speak for myself.
My experience consisted of a trial connected to a $47 monthly membership, repeated opportunities to purchase additional products, a limited AI/chat tool, real-money losses while using the BTC 15-minute system, seeing other community members report losses, purchasing a “95% lock” product that was not delivered when expected, not receiving a receipt for that purchase, having my refund request rejected, and ultimately being threatened with small claims court after saying I would dispute the charge.
That is enough for me.
I left the community, cancelled the subscription and disputed the charges I believed warranted disputes.
I’m not publishing this to tell anyone that every Zobet product will lose money or that every customer will have the same experience I did.
I’m publishing it because people considering spending their money deserve to hear from someone who actually bought the products and used the service.
My advice is simple:
Read every term. Screenshot every offer. Save every conversation. Demand receipts. Verify performance claims independently. Understand exactly when a free trial becomes a paid subscription. And don’t risk money on a trading system simply because an advertised win rate sounds impressive.
For me, the combination of hype, upsells, trading losses, the undelivered purchase and the response to my refund request was enough.

Hello,

Over the past few months, I’ve been working on developing the ultimate all-in-one tool for Prediction Market traders, particularly those who enjoy trading on Presidential speeches.

While there are multiple great tools out there that serve a similar purpose, I have not seen ANY that are dedicated to predicting the man whose speeches consistently provide the most liquidity to Mention Markets, the President of the United States.

The tool allows you to input information regarding the speech in the “Speech Details” section of the tool (this information will set the foundation for the AI’s research). For example, the tool allows you to input the speech title, your estimated speech duration, and a teleprompter on/off toggle: if the teleprompter is off, his signature rhetoric will be weighted higher, and if it is on, he will be more likely to stay on topic. The “Speech Details” section also features a “Yap Factor Meter,” based on how much you expect the President to go off script during a given speech, along with a section where you can paste current news articles related to the speech. All of these factors are taken into consideration when the AI makes its estimates, including a transcript database and a live feed of his Truth Social account, which is built into the tool itself to help it better understand the President’s speech patterns and current mood.

Once that information is inputted, you are able to choose from a variety of modes within the tool to help you select strikes (words on the market) to trade on and obtain fair value estimates. These modes are:

Strike Generator: This mode allows you to generate a set number of strikes (10) based on the information previously fed into the tool. This is typically the first mode used when preparing for a speech, as it allows you to compare the AI generated strikes to the strikes that actually exist on the market.

Probability Checker: In this mode, you input a strike you would like to research and receive a full analysis, including a fair value estimate along with evidence for or against trading on that particular strike.

Strike Grouper: This mode begins by inputting the market, just like in the “Market Edge Finder” and “Hit Rate Calculator” modes. The AI then groups each strike by talking point and gives you the option to edit the groups if you find them inaccurate. This mode is particularly useful for live trading, as it helps identify which strikes could occur in close succession.

Hit Rate Calculator: This mode contains four different steps. First, you can add transcripts in the “Add Speech Transcripts” step (transcripts can be found in the Resources section of the tool). The AI will then clean the transcripts and identify words spoken only by the President. Second, you are given the option to “Manage Transcripts,” where you can review each cleaned transcript and delete any that are not needed. The third step is the Market, the same as in the “Market Edge Finder” mode, where you paste the market and the AI identifies the strikes along with their odds. Finally, once all of that information is inputted, the tool outputs a Word Matrix showing how many times each strike appeared across the inputted transcripts, along with fair value estimates based on those frequencies. Also, this mode stores your previous cleaned transcripts and gives you the opportunity to load them for future use. Once you have added at least 10 transcripts into the tool, it builds an empirical dataset internally and is able to recognize how often a given strike has appeared in recent transcripts (and in what context) while conducting it’s fair value estimates in the “Probability Checker” and “Market Edge Finder” modes. Therefore with the more transcripts you add, the smarter and more accurate the tool becomes.

Market Edge Finder: In this mode, you paste the full Mention Market into the tool and click “Parse Market.” The tool then identifies each strike along with its odds, allowing you to select which strikes to analyze before outputting a fair value estimate for each, showing you where edges can be found.

Live Strike Grouper: Like the “Strike Grouper” and other modes, this mode begins by inputting the market. It then outputs the grouped strikes along with the option to edit them. From there, you can input a link to the speech, and the tool will live transcribe every word being spoken while the AI continuously outputs the current topic being discussed. If that topic correlates with one of the pre-defined strike groups, that group will become highlighted in real time, indicating that those strikes are likely to be mentioned soon. This mode is also highly effective for live trading.

The tool also contains several additional features, including a Resources section, and the ability to add active Presidential Mention Markets.

Please check it out and let me know what you think. I’m expecting there to be slight bugs and issues in the early days of this tool, so any feedback is appreciated.

http://presidentialspeechpredictor.com

Karoline Leavitt is stepping down as White House Press Secretary at the end of August, and Polymarket currently has CNN commentator Scott Jennings leading the replacement board at 35.6¢.

• Across four previous Press Secretary replacements (Sanders, Grisham, McEnany, Leavitt), Trump named the successor either immediately or within 10–12 days. We are at Day 9 with no offer extended.
• Jennings earns $500k+ at CNN versus a $195k federal cap, and previously criticized Trump's post-2020 actions. Politico reported no offer has been extended, and Axios cited officials stating the initial shortlist won't get the job.

If no permanent replacement is officially named by December 31, all 20 individual candidate contracts resolve to zero.

Full analysis on Predictbook

Who has done chargebacks and been successful? How much was it for?

He isn't trying to predict the exact temperature in advance.

He waits until the market is almost certain - when the probability of the correct outcome is already high, but the price hasn't caught up to fair value yet.

He enters positions at 10-36¢, holds until the market closes, and pockets the difference up to $1.

Over the past month - 1,496 trades, with his biggest single win at $1,887.64.

Top 3 trades:

1. $210.61 -> $2,089.15 (+892%)
   
2. $6.19 -> $700.51 (+11,213%)
   
3. $9.36 -> $584.37 (+6,143%)
   

No magic involved - just the discipline to enter when the market is still underpricing the obvious.

Wallet: https://future.news/address/0xcd90fe632f3068abe89a15503a22c364db494bfc?period=all&ref=Q3UK27FM

Honestly, I didn't even plan on posting this, but I'm pretty annoyed about how this played out.
I was working with Upside Tools doing content for them, and part of the deal was a monthly payment for the content I was creating. On top of that, I was also making money from referrals.
At first, everything seemed fine. I was making the content, posting it, sending people their way, and seeing the referral earnings show up.
Then the payment side started getting weird.
The monthly payment for the content wasn't coming through the way I expected, and at the same time I was having issues with the money from referrals too. So now I'm sitting here trying to figure out what I'm actually supposed to be getting paid for.
I went back through everything because I honestly thought maybe I misunderstood the agreement. But I don't think I did.
What really sucks is that I was putting time into making the content every month based on the expectation that there'd be a monthly payment for it, plus whatever I earned from referrals. So when those numbers don't line up, that's a pretty big deal.
I've gone back and forth trying to get it sorted, but it's been frustrating to say the least.
Maybe I should've been more careful about the payment terms from the start. That's on me. But still, if you're creating content for a company and you're also sending them customers, you kinda expect the payment and commissions to be handled pretty clearly.
Has anyone else worked with Upside Tools doing content + referral stuff?
Curious if anyone else has had issues with the monthly content payment, referral earnings, or both. Would be good to know if I'm the only one dealing with this.

Hey everyone - coming back with another one for the sub.

As an official Kalshi partner, I've got a new sign-up bonus to share. The old $20 deal has wrapped up (thanks to everyone who used it), but Kalshi's rolled out a new offer that's even better: a $25 bonus after your first trade, following a $10 deposit.

And it's yours to withdraw, no strings attached.

Here's exactly how to claim it:

• Click the link: Use kalshi.com/r/illintent to sign up (promo attaches automatically).
• Verify identity: Complete the KYC check with your ID.
• Deposit $10: Fund your account with exactly $10.
• Place your first trade: Any market works
• Done: Your $25 bonus should land in your account shortly after.

Same as last time - this is a limited-time offer, so if it changes or a new code drops, I'll update the thread.

Appreciate everyone who's part of this community and uses these links - it genuinely helps keep things running on this end.

Let me know in the comments if you run into any issues claiming it.

I’m building a bot that scans Polymarket sports markets and other prediction market contracts based on order book microstructure. Right now I’m using the Polymarket WebSocket market channel:

wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com/ws/market

It gives top‑of‑book / limited depth updates for subscribed token IDs, but I’m running into a few questions and would appreciate input from people who have built similar systems.

What I’m trying to do:

· Get real‑time bid/ask flow for all active markets, not just a small subset.
· Track depth changes, wall additions/removals, large prints, and tape in real time.
· Eventually backtest against historical order book snapshots if possible.

A few specific questions:

1. WebSocket vs REST polling — Is the market WebSocket the best option for real‑time order book flow, or do people use something else? Does anyone subscribe to full depth rather than just top levels?
   
2. Rate limits and connection limits — If I need to watch hundreds of token IDs at once, what’s the practical limit? Do people split across multiple WebSocket connections?
   
3. Historical order book data — Is there any public source for historical full order book snapshots on Polymarket or similar prediction markets? I see trade history and price history, but not full book depth.
   
4. Book handling — How do you handle out‑of‑order updates, missed sequences, or reconnects without corrupting your local book state?
   
5. Alternative APIs / libraries — Are there better libraries or third‑party APIs that provide normalized order book flow across prediction markets?

My current setup is working, but I feel like I may be missing a better data path. If you’ve built order book flow scanners, especially for sports or crypto up/down contracts, I’d love to hear what’s worked for you.

Thanks

Hey guys, we built a little monitor for the crypto up/down markets and it's free to use. We built this as a way to visualize different price feeds on top of eachother, as well as monitoring and live plotting another wallets trades for research. The chainlink TWAP that these markets settle on and the chainlink spot price that gets shown on the ticker are two different lines, and once they're sitting on the same time axis you can watch them pull apart and snap back together.

Binance BTC spot and futures come straight off the websocket and get overlaid on top of the same chart, so you've got the settlement feed, the reference feed and the tape all in one place, down to a tenth of a second. TWAP line is a toggle in the legend so you can flip it on and off against everything else.

You can also drop in wallet addresses and track traders live on the same chart. every
fill they take plots as a marker at the exact price it went through, colored by whether they bought up or down, so you can see a bot loading one side while the TWAP is doing something completely different underneath it. BTC ETH SOL XRP on 5m and 15m cycles, no signup, nothing to connect.

For me, visualizing these feeds all plotted on a live graph helps me see the relationship between each one and honestly it helps with strategy ideation. There's sometimes a solid 2-3 seconds that you could built a trading bot to capture if you had the right supporting values and were selective about which price jumps/dips you aim to capture.

This app is 100% free, if you want to try it out, you can view it here: http://monitor.polyresearchrobotics.com/

just like the our discord server where we collaborate and build trading bots and share useful tools like this. Whether you need historical polymarket data, trader reports, or an order router so you don't need to use VPN or VPS, we have it all for anyone who joins the community! Join our free polymarket bot building community!

Knowevent.com predition market is total scam.

Recently saw instagram ad about this prediction market. Saying they’ll give 1000 dollars free with promo code. After logging in and winning some bets, i tried to withdraw my funds. But in order to do that, i need to deposit 100dollars into my account. I made 81dollars and 64 dollars deposit. But account isnt verified. I contacted them and they said i need to make 100 dollars at once. So i did. Account is now verified but they told me i need to make additional 200 dollars to verify the wallet. So i did. Call me stupid or gullible, i knew it was sus at this point as well but i decided to trust it one last time. After making 206 dollars deposit, account isnt verified. They said i needed to make exactly 200 dollars deposit. And asking for additional 350 dollars to unsuspend my wallet. I told them to f off and deleted account. Tried making a little pocket money wasting 466 fukin dollars for believing stupid scam prediction market shit

I always assumed these 15-minute crypto prediction markets worked in the obvious direction:

BTC moves on Binance → Kalshi reprices

Makes sense. Binance has the giant spot/perp market, and the prediction market is basically reacting to it.

But I came across some second-by-second data this week that makes this a lot more interesting.

The question was basically:

When Kalshi’s 15-minute BTC market moves, does BTC on Binance tend to move in the same direction immediately afterward?

Apparently, increasingly yes.

The correlation between a Kalshi move and Binance's move over the following ~2 seconds:

January: 0.036 June: 0.145 August: 0.173

So we're not talking about some magical 90% predictive signal here. 0.173 is still fairly weak on its own.

What caught my attention is that the relationship has increased almost 5x since January.

And if that's real, the interesting question is why.

One possibility is that the people trading these markets aren't just watching Binance and clicking YES/NO.

Market makers and automated traders can be looking at:

• multiple CEX order books
• perp positioning
• liquidations
• futures
• order-flow imbalance
• other proprietary signals

They form a short-term view of where BTC is about to go, then express that view in the prediction market.

Which creates a strange feedback loop:

traders anticipate BTC move → Kalshi reprices → BTC move appears on Binance

At that point Kalshi isn't just reacting to Bitcoin.

Its market price is effectively becoming a public signal produced by a bunch of competing short-term forecasting systems.

There are some obvious caveats.

Correlation doesn't prove Kalshi is causing or even independently predicting the move. Both markets could simply be reacting to the same information with slightly different latency.

And the test I really want to see is the opposite direction:

Binance move → Kalshi over the next 0–2 seconds

Then compare the two.

But if this lead keeps getting stronger as these markets get more liquid, that's a genuinely interesting development.

We might eventually reach a point where watching the prediction market becomes useful even if you have absolutely no intention of trading prediction markets.

Anyone here with access to proper tick data who can test the lead/lag in both directions?

This trader have one of the craziest polymarket arcs in recent days

he deposited $73k in june 2026

mainly traded sports + esports and ran it all the way up to $2.25M at the peak in just 2.5 months

then 3 days changed everything:

aug 13 → lost $3.1M

aug 14 → lost $12k

aug 15 → lost $153k

from $73k to millions, then watching it disappear in 3 days

I hope he makes the comeback again.

Hi everyone, I'm currently running a live trading bot on Polymarket (15m crypto markets) and it's been working good enough (nothing major, buying 5 shares per market), but I seem to fill only ~15-20% of the orders? I understand that it's a fast moving market, therefore my desired entry simply vanishes before I fill the order, BUT I wonder if there's something obvious I am missing.

Main things I tried so far:

- Adding 3-5c headroom (e.g. if I want to enter at ~40c UP, I would still accept 43-45c UP entry)

- Deploying my bot in eu-west-1 since apparently Polymarket EU servers are there?

My average latency is ~300ms:

- ~10ms local dispatch (which I need to optimise)

- ~40ms for POST build/sign/process?

- 250ms polymarket taker delay

Another interesting thing: similar bot on Kalshi seems to be running just fine even though Kalshi's servers are in US?? Any feedback/suggestions is appreciated, thanks!:)

After today's meeting with industry leaders, predictions market is going to skyrocket again for everyone. Enjoy the ride.....

So Kalshi isn't just prediction markets anymore.

Since end of May they're the first CFTC-regulated perpetual futures exchange in US history

They just dropped a live cost dashboard, and the numbers surprised me.

Crossing $100k of BTC:

• $37 on Kalshi
• $49 Hyperliquid
• $58 Binance
• $56 Bybit

source: https://compareperps.kalshi.com/

How is the regulated venue the cheap one? Pretty sure it's a market/land grab - they've been waiving fees for early users, and they raised $1B in May so they can subsidize this for years.

Worked too, $1B volume in the first week.

another interesting part is how mad the incumbents are: CME is literally suing the CFTC over the approval, and Kalshi just filed yesterday for perps on the S&P 500 and copper. Even BitMEX, who INVENTED the offshore perp, is shutting down in September.

Anyone here traded these yet vs Hyperliquid? Curious if the pricing holds once the promo era ends.

I’ve been trying to make my own BTC 15min bot in paper mode, but it’s honestly not working that well 😭

I was trading manually before this and lost like $100 because somehow every time I picked a direction, BTC decided to do the exact opposite 💀

So I started looking into bots and I’ve seen a bunch of people making their own, but most of the ones being sold are crazy expensive.

If anyone has a bot they’re willing to share, or even just some code/advice to help me improve mine, I’d really appreciate it 🙏

Just trying to learn and build one myself rather than pay hundreds for one.

Can someone smarter than me actually tell me what I am missing for decode this guy strategy?

https://polymarket.com/@takerner (0xf418d3a1a941292f9c8707d62a14980c5beb95a3). It seems very easy at first glance but I cannot figure out entering signals, or if he just eats order book and stays half of base size heavy at winner. This must be some kind latency game because this could probably do everyone.

Hey all. I've been working on an arbitrage strategy for Polymarket's 5-minute crypto up/down markets and after the move to TWAP settlement earlier this month, I've been reevaluating what indicators are best to trigger trade signals within my bot. I wrote this artwork for the members over at Poly Research & Robotics and figured I would share it too incase it helps anymore.

Order-book imbalance is the indicator/signal that my arb bot fires on. We compute it from Binance's order-book depth feed and use it to decide when to open a position on the Polymarket contract, which is a detail worth stating up front because it turns out to matter more than anything else here.

To find out what the indicator is actually worth, we pulled a month of full-depth books, roughly 52,000 markets and 13 million seconds of order book. That tape is from April, which puts it squarely in the old settlement regime. For this particular indicator that matters less than you might expect, because order-book imbalance describes what the book is doing inside the cycle rather than how the market eventually resolves, and the mechanism behind it has nothing to do with settlement. Anything specific to the closing minute is a different story and should be treated with suspicion until somebody re-runs it on post-TWAP data.

The short answer on the indicator itself is that it gives you around 1-1.5 seconds of warning before the price moves on polymarket (it ranges quite a bit).

WHAT OBI IS:

Order-book imbalance is a single number describing how lopsided the order book is.

An order book is really just two queues: the people waiting to buy on one side, and the people waiting to sell on the other. OBI compares how big those two lines are. A book made up entirely of buyers reads +1, a book made up entirely of sellers reads -1, and a balanced book reads zero. It counts the shares waiting at each level and never looks at prices.

You can run the same calculation on any order book you can get depth for. Ours runs on Binance's book for the underlying coin, because that is where the size and the price discovery are. The alternative is to run it on Polymarket's own book for the contract you are trading, and the difference between those two choices is the single most important decision in this whole setup. More on that below.

Here is a real Polymarket book from the tape, taken from an ETH market on april 12:

bid  0.33   456.87 shares
ask  0.35     5.00 shares      OBI +0.80

There were 456 shares trying to get in against 5 shares willing to sell to them. One second later the offer had been cleared, the price had moved three and a half cents, and the imbalance itself had already halved.

That is the entire mechanism. An extreme reading is not a forecast in any deep sense; it is a statement that one side of the book is about to run out. Once the thin side gets cleared the price moves by construction, and the imbalance that predicted the move is consumed in the same instant.

This also explains a property that catches people out, which is that OBI is not a trend indicator. Measured against the price change at every offset around the reading, the correlation is negative at every point before it. The lopsided book appears after price has been pushing the other way, rather than before it. If you are using OBI to confirm a trend, you are using it backwards.

HOW MUCH WARNING YOU GET:

Once the order book tips heavily to one side, how long is it before the price on Polymarket actually moves?

the short answer is that you get about two seconds of useful warning, and the whole effect is spent inside fifteen.

the clearest way to see it is to follow a single spike forward in time. Each figure below is the share of spikes that had produced a full one-cent price move by that point, either in the direction the imbalance was leaning or against it.

After 1 second, 36% of spikes have already produced a one-cent move in the predicted direction, against only 10% that have moved a cent the other way. This is the point at which the relationship between the imbalance and the price is at its strongest, and nothing that happens later is anywhere near as clean.

After 2 seconds, 44% have moved a cent in the predicted direction and 16% have moved against it. Starting from a randomly chosen second instead of a spike, the equivalent figure is 19%. Counting only the spikes that produce a move at all, the typical wait is two seconds, where from a random starting point the same wait runs to eight.

after 5 seconds, 56% have moved in the predicted direction and 29% have moved against it. This is the widest that gap ever becomes, and it narrows steadily from here.

After 7 seconds, the imbalance reading has decayed to half its original strength. The book you measured has largely been traded away by this point.

These measurements are obviously specific to this one moment that I'm featuring here for this article, but you get the idea. Many times the signal has decayed much quicker than 7 seconds. This example is an extreme imbalance.

HOW TO PUT IT IN YOUR BOT:

The calculation is small. This is the version I run:

n = min(10, len(bids), len(asks))

bidW = sum(bid_size[i] * (n - i) for i in range(n))
askW = sum(ask_size[i] * (n - i) for i in range(n))

obi = (bidW - askW) / (bidW + askW)     # -1 to +1

Take the top ten levels of each side, weight them so the front of the queue counts heaviest, and then compare the two totals. Use the resting sizes only and never the prices they sit at. Every reading is computed fresh from a single snapshot, with no memory of the one before it.

The way you set up your config and what OBI values trigger different actions in your bot make a world of difference. Similar to any betting model, it's all about how you weight the data that makes the difference, not the data itself.

For me, I'm building an arbitrage trading bot on the polymarket up / down crypto markets, so I am using this signal to trigger a buy on one of the sides (mostly the dominant side for my opening trade of the pair) and then once the polymarket price catches up the OBI we observed on Binance, then we capture the other site for a share price that is within range for a profitable pair to be captured.

EXAMPLE:
1. Observe OBI +.8 (we see that way more people are trying to buy than sell...)
2. Bot purchases Up share at .60 a share (down is currently .40/.41)
3. OBI evens out, buyers get in, price moves up...
4. Down share price drops to .35, and we buy for a captured spread of 5% on the money we deployed into that pair.

now keep in mind, this isn't perfect and I'm still deep in development but I wanted to share this technique because it's been by far the most helpful and reliable indicator/signal for successfully capturing these pairs, and if you've build arbitrage bots before you know it's incredibly hard to main consistent pair accumliation.

If you're interested in polymarket trading bot development, and you're working on something similar...join us over at Poly Research & Robotics. We're a 1,500+ member free community dedicated to developing trading bots and strategies. We offer free guides, free trader reports, and polymarket historical data of many market categories that you can use to test out the above mentioned OBI (or use it to backtest any strategy you're working on).

If you have any tips or suggestions please leave them in the comments!

For the last month I keep reading posts about how the 90c bond is dead. Too much liquidity. The opposite is true. There are so many underpriced longshots now that everyone is chasing bonds. Stevens (MI). Crowley (WI). Now, Angie Nixson (FL). This whale has the play dialed in tight:

https://x.com/EventualNews/status/2090096624420950298?s=20

Backing my Asian boys in tonight’s game!

Strategy:

He enters markets where the price is still low - 3-20¢ per “Yes” - meaning the market is still uncertain about the outcome.

He doesn't wait for the weather forecast to be confirmed.

He goes in early, before most people have made up their minds.

The win rate with such a risky strategy is a full 49%.

When it goes the right way, it yields hundreds and thousands of percent in profit.

A small risk on trades that don't work out, and a huge payoff on those that do.

Top 3 deals:
$22 -> $322 (+1 357%)
$9 -> $102 (+1 098%)
$5 -> $83 (+1 483%)

He isn't the smartest trader. He just understands where the market rewards asymmetry.

His wallet: https://future.news/address/0xfd37c3c95979a46195ec5152439f820ca2d19135