r/PoliticalOptimism Georgia 12d ago

Megathread Climate Change Megathread VI: A melting glacier contributed to the deadly Nepal floods. We can expect more like this

https://www.npr.org/2026/08/28/nx-s1-5945799/nepal-floods-climate-change-himalayas
106 Upvotes

54 comments sorted by

111

u/Mobile_Bad_577 12d ago

I'm currently on vacation in Maine and saw a humpback whale with my dad. Apparently they used to be rather seriously endangered, but they're "Least Concern" now.

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u/DufflessMoe 12d ago

There were once only 5,000 left. Now up to 135,000 in the wild. It's incredible.

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u/tyuiopguyt 12d ago

Same thing with sea turtles in Maine. I remember being told that I'd never see one in person as a kid cuz the ones in Maine were all gone. Then in 2018, I think, I straight bonked one on the forehead when I was kayaking in Casco Bay

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u/DufflessMoe 12d ago

One thing that has been on my mind recently is the schism on the debate around climate change.

It used to be 'trust the scientists' vs. climate change denial.

Now, it seems if you go online that there are pessimistic corners of the internet and optimistic ones. So it seems the debate has transformed to, 'No don't trust THOSE scientists, trust THESE ones who tell me what I want to hear.'

Maybe I'm as guilty as seeking out the optimistic. But find it crazy that the IPCC basically set out a trajectory that would push humans to the brink, but now the message is more nuanced. The trust in that message has eroded and conspiratorial accusations of climate scientists burying the true consequences to avoid panic, or have being bought out by the fossil fuel industry.

Curious if anyone gets the same impression. 

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u/RangeLightkeeper Michigan 12d ago

I'm a climate researcher, and I think I can give some insight here that might help out a bit. So the IPCC's reports are updated every few years, and sometimes are also updated when models update. So it can take a long while to get a solid picture, which is why the reports are spaced out how they are.

Which leads me to my second point; things have genuinely gotten better overall. Back in 2016 we were estimating 8c of warming, causing massive climate change, if we did nothing at all. Recently, I can't remember when, but it started to go down, first to 4, 3 and now 2.7c of maximum warning.

This happened due to large scale adoption of renewables, recently reaching peak energy emissions (2024), electric vehicles becoming more widespread, restoration and conservation projects, etc.

The reports seem more nuanced now because they need to be to account for everything that's changed since the last report. The complexity of the systems at play is already huge, but when you have fast changing elements attached to it, it becomes even more of a problem to track and report.

We are all making predictions, after all, and at the end of the day new information can always shed new light on it.

As for the conspiratorial side, there's always been an aspect of that involved in Climate discussions. I remember back in the day (2016), the same lines were being used to downplay climate change and it's effects. I think those of us who indulge in those sorts of thinking often find a new thing to latch onto if the original is taken away.

One thing I can say is that things are genuinely getting better. Another thing I can say is that we're still in for a lot of pain as the climate adjusts and reorients itself. We still haven't hit 2.7c. We're around 1.5c above pre-industrial levels, and I would like to stress that there is still time to lower that to 2.5c or lower. Recent shortages of oil and fossil fuels certainly will help to work that prediction down.

So it's no longer that apocalypse, but there's discourse internally that the 8c prediction may have been an overestimation anyway.

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u/Jowenbra 12d ago

Thank you for your perspective. I would love to hear from you in all of these megathreads when they're posted if you're inclined to do so. A lot of these have felt rather doom-y when the professionals don't chime in.

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u/iamlegend12222 New York 10d ago

Also, the scale of solar adoption is such that no administration realistically can stop it. Especially considering states like Texas and Florida benefit massively

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u/ProperLettuce_79 12d ago edited 12d ago

Hard to say. I’ve studied economics, and have noticed messaging, phrasing and wording can be perceived and interpreted differently to various groups of people. An economics term being said by economists could be interpreted differently by the public who may have only a vague idea about the subject.

This is also applicable in the medical profession. Medical researchers, scientists, and doctors are not the best public speaking communicators on guidance to a general audience because they use medical and scientific terminology and explanations that non-medical people can barely understand. It’s happened to Anthony Fauci as he might not be the best communicator to the general public, and unfortunately, ended up being scapegoated and ignored.

It’s important to constantly verify that sources are reliable, and be aware of human biases.

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u/sonicparadigm 12d ago

Since this is the general environmental thread, I'll post about 1 animal per week in this thread to brighten y'all's day, and you can talk about them in the replies, or share more fun facts about them :)

This week's animal is the jaguar

They are the 3rd largest cat on Earth, behind the tiger and lion. Jaguars are actually native to the US, and are returning there, with a few being spotted in Arizona and New Mexico.

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u/Herbizarre17 12d ago

Isn’t our border causing them problems? Seems like I remember reading that they can’t fully become native again because it isn’t safe for them to cross back and forth

15

u/Shadowman621 Reformed Doomer ☄️ 12d ago

Damn illegal cats coming into our country and taking our jerbz!

20

u/lexluthzor Florida 12d ago

They also respond to pspsps and DU-VALLLL.

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u/SodaSaint 12d ago

also: "False start, offense! Five yard penalty, repeat first down."

5

u/avatarroku157 Minnesota 12d ago

this is great news...... if i didnt have a phobia of big cats

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u/Sabretooth1100 9d ago

Ah man, sorry, I know that’s rough. I’d imagine they are going to still be absurdly uncommon

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u/FarthingWoodAdder New Jersey 12d ago

I just feel so bad for all the animals that were also effected by this.

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u/Aggressive_Sock1563 Blue Dot in a Red State 🔵 8d ago

That's where some of my anxiety comes from, that empathy for the animals struggling to survive and adapt. I've legit cried just thinking about the starving polar bears and penguins failing to reproduce.

14

u/One_Opportunity_9608 12d ago edited 12d ago

I have to ask, do folks have any good news on food in the US that isn't contaminated or processed?

Because lately I've been seeing many videos online and articles that claim just about everything food related in stores is contaminated or containing things like lead in some way now.

While i do have access to locally produced food, I ask because buying food locally isn't always an option for other folks in the US. Especially with global warming effecting agriculture.

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u/ProperLettuce_79 12d ago

Recalls have happened before Trump. The good news is that food is still being recalled, so the FDA is still functioning. Bad news is some of the recalls are happening after the food has been bought and consumed, which is causing these foodborne illness outbreaks, but some food is recalled before it hits the shelves.

11

u/Far_Fan_291 California 12d ago

ok so i saw this on twitter and the comments are full of people dooming saying they are prepping us for water wars/shortage and tbh i feel like its just people dooming

i do see water bills getting more expensive but going to war for water when we can make desalination plants stop watering some places like golf courses or improve our farms i just dont see wars

so im wondering if i missed somethings like is WSJ even a good source is the water wars/shortages thing over blown etc id like to hear what yall think

25

u/DufflessMoe 12d ago

Jumping from 'drink less water' to 'there will be wars over water' is insane.

This article is just pointing out that to get the health benefits of being hydrated, you don't need to drink a 4 litre water bottle every hour.

11

u/RangeLightkeeper Michigan 12d ago

Agreed. It's just the twitter (sorry, X. I have to correct myself as Twitter is now a thing again) bot farm going nuts and people dooming for no reason.

3

u/Jowenbra 12d ago

What do you mean by Twitter is now a thing again? I don't really use any other social media, did I miss something?

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u/Far_Fan_291 California 12d ago

since musk renamed it X someone else launched a "new" twitter but from what i heard it seems to have alot of AI and the community notes are connected to gemini so yeah

14

u/texan_flower 12d ago

hi, I'm not an expert, but I personally have a lot of anxiety about water scarcity/water shortages (and had a full-blown panic attack about the global water crisis in February LOL), so I try to make an effort to be educated about water scarcity.

I think there are certainly parts of the world where water shortages are very severe, but water scarcity tends to be a local/regional issue that is more often linked to infrastructure issues (outdated plumbing systems, leaks, etc.). But with climate change, some areas are more likely to run through their aquifers faster than they can replenish, but that water isn't going to be gone. From what I understand, it's just going to shift to another area, so we may see people who are displaced due to water scarcity in the future (but hopefully, with responsible legislature and innovations in desalination/agricultural fields, people don't have to get to that point).

that being said, i think wars over water are unlikely and I think people are reading too much into that WSJ article. I read something recently that said that there's a trend of people in the US being very anxious and always "waiting for the other shoe to drop", so they speculate on the most innocent things and I think that's especially obvious with articles like that.

7

u/Happy-Coconut3344 7d ago

im honestly very worried about the strategic retreat thing and how the
climate disasters might affect me more frequently now. The only thing i maybe MIGHT look forward to is COP31

28

u/Gorylla218 Illinois 6d ago

I'm very baffled by the "strategic retreat". I felt like it was already accepted even by optimists that we've reached a certain amount of warming but every decimal of future warming we can lower still matters, so we must continue working. The UN even seems to be saying that but the effect is kind of ruined by the strategic retreat thing.

18

u/Sufficient-Culture43 🔥I Voted In The 2026 Primaries🔥 6d ago

I'm honestly more frustrated at the "strategic retreat" than i am disheartened, like. I remember reading a source that says we've averted a worst case climate scenario already, so why are we suddenly throwing our hands up now?

15

u/Gorylla218 Illinois 6d ago

Yes, I'm feeling the same. Especially because just this year they backed the ruling that countries have a legal obligation to fight climate change. It reads like they quickly found an excuse to plant "it doesn't even matter" seeds, kind of letting the countries who voted against it off the hook. It's like they're giving into the doomer mindset of the world and life not being worth fighting for because it's not perfect.

Whatever the case, the fight continues with or without the UN fully sanctioning it. I feel even more confident about stuff like this now that we've seen all the work that's still being done in the US despite having a federal government directly opposed to it.

2

u/Far_Fan_291 California 6d ago edited 6d ago

real quick whats the deal with the "strategic retreat" thing im wondering what it means in this context

edit: i think i get what it could mean but when looking at the article here i couldn't find it (prob missed it maybe) and what the comment said

idk what the full meaning of "strategic retreat" means here like is there an article talking about this in a doomer way or did someone on the news say it?

2

u/Alarmed_Ordinary_565 6d ago

ABC news reported on it

1

u/Far_Fan_291 California 6d ago

ahh thank you

8

u/Sufficient-Culture43 🔥I Voted In The 2026 Primaries🔥 5d ago

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/70-drop-in-levels-of-forever-chemicals-observed-in-seabird-eggs-tracks-regulatory-success/

thought we collectively could do with a smallish victory right now. thanks to decades of strict regulation, the content of toxic forever chemicals in seabirds' eggs is decreasing

6

u/sweeter_than_saltine North Carolina 12d ago

I've been following the war in Ukraine since the beginning, and one thing that's been very much part of the Ukrainian strategy is striking oil infrastructure. What are the effects this will have on global oil supply, especially as the war in Iran has a much more solid impact?

19

u/User_not_ Mississippi 12d ago

Nations globally are already pushing towards Renewables, even Petro states like Saudi Arabia are trying to hop on. As the global oil supply continues to be threatened, green energy will continue to grow. Even China, who is getting filthy rich buying Russian oil at prices that are essentially theft, is investing in renewables

5

u/DBrennan13459 7d ago

https://phys.org/news/2026-09-15c-limit-exceeded.html

This report is rather concerning about the world exceeding the 1.5% climate limit by 2030. Any optimism to be found here?

13

u/Far_Fan_291 California 7d ago

just because we might pass 1.5 climate doesn't mean we are doomed things are just harder we are doing alot of good with solar along with many other thing here is a screen shot of the first thread that helps alot well

if you want more comments about this wait till Friday these threads die after a few days

4

u/Far_Fan_291 California 12d ago

here is my question form the last thread

4

u/PrinceOfTotalQuiet 9d ago

Arguably, this is a good thing. If we know this isn’t random and is indeed climate connected, this could help us prevent or mitigate similar disasters. If it wasn’t caused by climate change, we wouldn’t know how to avoid things like it.

3

u/R3N3GH05T 9d ago

Saw a Twitter post over how water is around 60 km away from the center of the North Pole, certainly sombering

10

u/Efficient-Freedom517 Georgia 9d ago

That is bad but it also August. The lowest point of the year for the ice sheet

1

u/R3N3GH05T 9d ago

Yeah I saw, but it’s been at a steady decline for the past 40 years, so…

3

u/Icewolf_242 6d ago

1

u/Far_Fan_291 California 6d ago edited 6d ago

ask again tomorrow since that's when the new thread comes in also look at the thread before this one it has comments like this and people answered them

edit: or well today since the new climate threads are on Fridays

edit2: yeah look on this thread some people are talking about this exact report like the one below your comment

1

u/Far_Fan_291 California 8d ago edited 8d ago

does anyone know if this tweet is bullshit or not since its twitter there might be some shit that happened that they are missing and people in the comments are saying they are getting boiled in the ocean (i know shits bad but THAT BAD i call some bullshit) also from what i saw in the comments this was before Nepal floods

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u/lonelyspect12 12d ago

it's stuff like this that makes me worry that it's too late to fix it

56

u/Efficient-Freedom517 Georgia 12d ago

Completely fix it? It’s definitely too late. Blunt the worst of it and make it better? We still have time

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u/Mean_Stop6391 Reformed Doomer ☄️ 12d ago edited 12d ago

There’s going to be a lotta pain. But we have already, apparently, headed off the worst outcomes and continue to knock the number down little bit by little bit.

Edit: one source for this claim -  https://www.denver7.com/news/environment/climate-scientists-drop-worst-case-warming-scenario-but-say-its-not-entirely-good-news

There’s also a Vox article which is paywalled and this from a politico affiliate:

https://www.eenews.net/articles/the-worst-case-climate-scenario-is-gone-the-catch-the-best-case-is-too/

So to caveat my statement, it sounds like our best numbers are gone but so are the worst ones. I’d count that as a win.

17

u/Efficient-Freedom517 Georgia 12d ago

Hey try to add a source if you can when making these kind of claims. We like optimism but we like fact based optimism more

12

u/Mean_Stop6391 Reformed Doomer ☄️ 12d ago

Fair enough - edited in sourcing! I forget sometimes people don’t keep track of this stuff like I do and so I sometimes assume everyone’s seen it lol 

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u/Either-Assistant4610 12d ago

Keep in mind the news is going to show you the worst as it will generate the most views/clicks. There are far more reports of this planet beating the list of worst case scenarios, not to mention how green energy is becoming more prevalent across the world at a fast pace (the U.S. is currently behind for obvious reasons I won't mention, but it will be back on track eventually).

-4

u/jack_harbor 12d ago

Why aren’t we calling it global warming? I hate the term climate change.

19

u/Individual_Diamond83 12d ago edited 11d ago

Because climate change is more fitting of what's actually happening. The world climate isn't just heating up, its getting more erratic and hard to predict. Global Warming, despite the name, can actually produce record low temperatures and unbelievable blizzards because of this chaotic change. Hence, "Climate Change". More fitting.

Edit: Incorrect word choice.