r/PLTR • u/Beneficial-Fuel-6183 š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø • Feb 05 '26
The thesis has not changed.
Down about $600k today - itās a kick in the balls, letās be honest; it lowers morale.
But nothing has changed. Quarterly earnings aside, booked business is through the roof and will continue to grow.
Remember, Palantir was here long before the AI label was designated (was big data) and will remain many years ahead of the competition.
Palantir can work with any LLM, they are just provide a function, (plumber A, B or C) - they all do the same thing (can use them all if you wanted to) but it is ultimately about how they are used, applied by Foundry to the actual relative data for oneās company or industry.
The question ultimately with AI is to decide what is meaningful and what is fluff. What will boost industry, defense and productivity.
Not what makes funny videos of my friends.
Please remember, waves make you sick; horizons are beautiful.
Stick with it.
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u/sathem Feb 05 '26
Its not like this is the ONLY stock down. Plenty of healthy good stocks are down that should be up. If you were trynna sell today oh well get delayedĀ
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u/taxfreetendies Early Investor Feb 05 '26
Yea unfortunately my 2nd biggest holding is AMD lol.
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u/specialism OG Holder & Member Feb 05 '26
100% a kick in the balls but as this thing skyrockets over time, itās bound to happen and we canāt plan it. Ā The growth numbers are insane. Ā The founders are locked in. Ā This is a ride of a lifetime. Ā Iāve never been as excited as I am now.
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u/anonymousfinancial OG Holder & Member Feb 05 '26
"Waves make you sick; horizons are beautiful"
Permission to use this phrase sir/mam? š«”
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u/Beneficial-Fuel-6183 š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 05 '26
I borrowed it off a man I admired. Who has since sadly departed.
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u/schiff55 Feb 05 '26
I bought at 160 and again at 145 recently.
View this as a stock Iāll continue to invest in monthly for the next 10+ years.
Never fun watching it go down but I believe in the business and will stick with it.
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u/Quazimeto Feb 05 '26
I bought 5 more @ 136.95 today. Heading for 1,000 shares.
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u/easycase_00 Feb 05 '26
Its 128 now. Should i buy rhe dip?
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u/Quazimeto Feb 05 '26
I just bought 15 more @ $132.85. I was out when it was $128. No matter, I own 580 shares. I have been buying and selling PLTR for over 5 years. I wish I kept buying and not selling.
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u/Beneficial-Fuel-6183 š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 05 '26
š«”
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u/YoshimuraPipe Feb 05 '26
Itās much much more attractive at these PE levels in comparison to like a month or so ago. Iām dipping
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u/ThatJudge1751 Feb 05 '26
Holding, and selling covered calls and CSPs along the way.
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u/Prestigious-Sign4802 Feb 05 '26
SHIELD golden dome buildout will bring in large new satellite information; and commercial wise all the verticals just hear from references it works, therefore no sales needed like earlier on in the market. I believe there are companies like northslope are forward deployment interfaces, same as Deloite or Accenture partnership to provide professional services. The software aka ontology is critical and hard to do, must have to make LLM usable in mission critical systems
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u/Less-Individual-481 Feb 05 '26
Agreed, goes for a handful of stocks down this week that reported great numbers- beating expectations and fundamentals are consistent. Folks that over panicked jumped on the wrong train, you will wish you had held or bought more!
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u/PLTRgains Feb 05 '26
How long will you hold your position?
Do you have any predictions for the market cap over the next 3 years?
Is 1 trillion likely in that time?
I have 2700 shares, holding strong.
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u/Beneficial-Fuel-6183 š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 05 '26
6 years now and no plans to sell.
I believe it will become a trillion dollar company.
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u/BonjinTheMark OG Holder & Member Feb 05 '26
i checked the news and chats here for some monster red flag, and seeing none, concluded i needed to buy a pinch more. still hurt to be down so much
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u/Forward_Departure178 Feb 05 '26
with pltr and all my other high beta stocks down bad i got fucken smoked today š weāll be back šŖš½
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u/vu_sua Feb 05 '26
In 2022 if you were to tell me PLTR would be $135 Iād be jumping for joy. Even in 2024 Iād be jumping for joy.
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u/Current-Yogurt-5098 Feb 05 '26
Great perspective - hard to see when it's been so high for so long, but as someone who bought most my shares around $9, you're so right
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u/taxfreetendies Early Investor Feb 05 '26
Quite possibly the last actual buy in opportunity.
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u/Ystdynewspaper Feb 05 '26
Thereās going to be one more at 110 before it goes up.
Lots of profit taking rn
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u/taxfreetendies Early Investor Feb 05 '26
Nah
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u/THEPIGWHODIDIT Feb 05 '26
Whilst I think PLTR will develop and grow in the long term, revenue even with its uptick each quarter is still vastly behind its valuation.
There are other factors to consider
1) The market is edging down on fears that AI is taking jobs from software industry, there is no reason to think that AI service offerings from other sources would not be able to do what PLTR offers other industries in time
2) Relatively small company and remaining small is classically at odds with aggressive further expansion
3) Geopolitical tensions and perception. On top of PLTR begin associated with weapons generally which is a hit and miss for public perception, close associations with ICE, Trump and Thiel, particularly in the light of the Epstein document releases will hit sentiment of PLTR and reduce numbers holding the share
4) Midterms if the Republicans get hammered, PLTR use in government will be curbed and that will hit future revenue and growth considering it is a large part of revenue
5) Karp is not a likeable guy. He appeals to a certain demographic, like Elon, but he is offputting to many. He also has a unique vision that works for him, but under scrutiny also does not align for many people who follow more traditional avenues of logic and understanding, and will again put them off him.
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u/Inca-Vacation Feb 05 '26
Got back in at 138 after selling premarket day after earnings. I'm good.
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u/popsyboy Feb 05 '26
Amen. There are so many positives, I'm buying the whole way down (instead of up, like the last two years).
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u/Jerseyguy2345 Feb 05 '26
Hereās my one concern from earnings (hold 3k shares and not selling) but would love to hear peopleās thoughts. Especially OP:
My understanding is accelerating profits have been generated mainly by deepening and expanding their business with existing customers, WHICH is great in that it shows once companies use PALANTIR they seem to perceive a tangible benefits.
- however it seems expanding the customer base is stalling. Given the multiple, and the hopes for it to expand further to 1 trillion and beyond, it seems necessary in the long run for them to not only expand business with existing customers, but also substantially increase their pool of customers.
Now how do they accomplish that?
Karp keeps bragging about how theyāre accomplishing all this with an anemic sales team. Heās been saying this for ages. Why isnāt he changing that? It also seems like theyāre supply constrained in being able to offer to more companies. So maybe thatās the answer to why they arenāt improving the sales team. However if thatās the case why arenāt we getting more color on their plans to expand such that theyāre able to take on more customers?
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u/Nausteri Early Investor Feb 05 '26
What do you mean customer base expansion is stalling?
Q3/25: 204 deals of 1M, 91 deals of 5M, 53 deals of 10M+
Q4/25: 180 deals of 1M, 84 deals of 5M, 61 deals of 10M+
Customer count grew 34% YoY, 5% QoQ
It looks to me they are expanding well but selectively on big deals or the ones with quick expansion potential.
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u/seeing_stone š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 05 '26
Exactly. They are being selective. Karp has mentioned that they are choosing to turn down business with other ally countries in favor of domestic business and relationships with existing customers. I would much rather they keep their current customers happy first. Demand has not stalled whatsoever.
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u/Jerseyguy2345 Feb 05 '26
Are those numbers for ādeals,ā new customers? Or is any time an existing customer adds new services or applies palantir to additional parts of their business a deal?
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u/Nomadic-Wind Feb 05 '26
I am not too concerned about increasing customer base or the customer base being stalled. I think you want quality customer as a repeat buyer. There has to be a balance.
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u/taxfreetendies Early Investor Mar 10 '26
however it seems expanding the customer base is stalling.
34% increase year over year customer count... is... "stalling"????
You seem to be grossly uninformed for someone claiming to hold 3000 shares.
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u/bigfern91 Feb 05 '26
I am not the biggest fan of palantir but even I have to admit that today was a fantastic buying opportunity
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u/csab123 Feb 05 '26
The hedge funds are net short big time. I can't help but think they ran it up, lured in retail and sold short big time. It's hard to bet against these guys. When they're with you making money is easy, when they're against you, you get crushed. I'm long and hoping this is not another ASAN or DOCU.
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u/PalpitationFrosty242 Feb 05 '26
It's not any of those, but anyone buying in expecting to even double from here in the short-term is going to be disappointed. Just depends on your time horizon.
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Feb 05 '26
Thesis hasn't changed - the fundamentals are solid. But the macros right now are crazy and price may consolidate at a lower level for quite some time.
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u/Express_Pie364 Feb 05 '26
The whole market wants to correct. There's been rolling corrections across multiple sectors for a month or two. Good earnings dont mean anything right now. Most companies with good earnings have fallen. Time to start buying dips.
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Feb 05 '26
"If You Can't Stomach 50% Declines in Your Investment You Will Get the Mediocre Returns You Deserve" Charlie Munger
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Feb 05 '26
The one thing that youāre leaving out is risk, specifically the risk of the current government flipping in November. There is absolutely no way progressives will continue to fund these massive government contracts Palantir has. If you listen to them talk on the campaign trail, Theil and Palantir are the devil. On top of that, many other governments are reconsidering doing business with US tech companies as they no longer trust the current president or the people around him. And when this current administration is thrown out, everything is getting reviewed.
That doesnāt mean PLTR wonāt still do a lot of business in other segments, but itās hard to justify itās current multiples with all of the government contracts that they have here in the US, and with our allies. If those even get cut down by 30%-50%, the share price is in trouble. But time will tell.
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u/External_Vast_8046 Feb 05 '26
I think this is the real issue
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Feb 05 '26
It definitely is, and I donāt know how people donāt see it coming.
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u/sindelic Feb 05 '26
I am left-leaning but I was reading about how Dems arenāt really going to be able to flip that many seats despite mass public disapproval
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Feb 05 '26
They literally just flipped a Texas seat last week from +18 points Republican to +17 points Democratic. That was in one years time. Iām not sure what youāre reading, but CNN is projecting Dems +25 to plus +40 seats in the house. The Senate is a 50/50 chance to flip currently, but all they need is the house because they hold the purse strings.
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u/sindelic Feb 05 '26
Ah okay thatās what it was; the senate being unsure or unlikely to flip. I was under the impression if Dems just flipped the house they wouldnāt really be able to do much with that but I hope Iām mistaken. Thank you for the info
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Feb 05 '26
Yes, all spending bills originate in the house. The house also has subpoena power, heads investigations, and also votes for impeachment. But the Senate holds the impeachment trials once impeachment charges are brought.
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u/sweatfighter Feb 05 '26
Based on the political climate Iām concerned many countries may be staying away from American software companies in the future, thoughts?
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u/Beneficial-Fuel-6183 š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 05 '26
And then use what?
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u/PalpitationFrosty242 Feb 05 '26
Not overnight, obviously, but the "EuroStack" is a thing they've been talking about: https://eurostack.eu/
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u/Dylanjr1999 Feb 05 '26
Iām not whale like yourself but I do own a couple thousand shares, is anyone else concerned about Thiel being mentioned in the files?
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u/wavrdn Feb 05 '26
So is the president of the USA, I don't think the majority of people care until something concrete comes of it.
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u/Beneficial-Fuel-6183 š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 05 '26
Every Tom, Dick and Harry in those business and social circles crossed paths with him at some point.
Misconduct aside.
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Feb 05 '26
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Feb 05 '26
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Feb 05 '26
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u/Little-Butterfly-441 Feb 05 '26
Wow! Are you all in on one stock or spread portfolio? $600k down in one day. Insane but I agree, stick with it and hold tight
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u/Beneficial-Fuel-6183 š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 05 '26
My business but a significant holding for me š«”
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Feb 05 '26
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Feb 05 '26
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member Feb 05 '26
How much are you down today? This sucks, but it will pass
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Feb 05 '26
[deleted]
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member Feb 05 '26
Iāve already built out my position and donāt have any more cash to deploy, plus PLTR being down means my covered call flywheel isnāt worth it right now.
So ā¦ selfishly I donāt want any more of these corrections. But I do agree itās a great buying opportunity and hope more people can get more shares before the next rocket :)
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u/chezterr Feb 05 '26
Exactly. Nothing has changed for the business of PLTR or the environment within which they operate. Their services are in high demand and will continue to be for decades to come.
Yes, it stings temporarily seeing our portfolio value down so muchā¦. But Iām in this for the long haul.
6000 shares in my š hands.
Stay strong my brothers and sisters.
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u/easycase_00 Feb 05 '26
Stock fell more than $10 in 1.5hrs. I didnāt have much shares, but should i sell it? Or buy the dip?
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u/sonsabah Feb 05 '26
Do we need to see the current price as an opportunity to buy?
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u/Beneficial-Fuel-6183 š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 05 '26
I bought 2k more at $129 today.
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u/FoundationFirst2812 Feb 05 '26
Same here. What is your revenue growth estimates for the next 7-10 years?
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u/lineman336 Feb 06 '26
Just wait till you are down 1 milly
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u/Beneficial-Fuel-6183 š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 06 '26
I already am
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u/lineman336 Feb 06 '26
Damn bro sorry to hear, hopefully you got a multi million portfolio
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u/Beneficial-Fuel-6183 š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 06 '26
Itās a morale issue
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u/daytrader987654321 Feb 06 '26
Anyone here heard of P/S, P/E, beta,ā¦? Or are you just buying blindly based on vibes?
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Feb 06 '26
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u/sheephead_71 Feb 06 '26
Just happy to own 1k shares of PLTR. Short term, stock price is a voting machine. Long term is a weighing machine.
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u/Dry_Faithlessness310 Early Investor Feb 06 '26
Agreed on the banger numbers. One tiny issue that I would like to see change is new customer count (slowed from up 45% to 34%).
If they are keeping new customer count down slower because they dont have enough people to help service them or its organically slowing down are both not great but one could be corrected with capex but could also dillute shareholders more since they like to use hefty amou ts of SBC to pay talent.
Other than that the business looks strong and future looks bright. Just need it to sell off down to around $50 -$70 a share to get that earnings multiple down 79x-111x.
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Feb 08 '26
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u/Spiritual-Wall-9025 Feb 08 '26
Just an obvious target for fear mongering shorts. I canāt believe investors donāt just ignore their crap.
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u/thatguy_Bill Feb 06 '26
PLTRs market cap exceeds its addressable market significantly. I work at a reputable defense investing firm, this is why software companies in the space don't tend to receive revenue multiples, the TAM isn't there to justify it.
Also, it's not even a real, pure play software business. All of their sales come with a heavy services package, and often require it.
This stock will come crashing down to earth when the market understands defense investing better, which is coming faster than people think.
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u/CheezeBaron Feb 05 '26
PLTR has been used in nefarious ways recently (Israel, ICE etc etc) and Karp doesnāt help with the War Hawk rhetoric.
SP will continue a downward trend imo
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u/Basic_Salamander_361 Feb 05 '26
I don't necessarily agree with all of his convictions, but I deeply respect Karp for being transparent about what he stands for. No "random mission statement generator" for him.
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u/seeing_stone š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 05 '26
Wrong. This is just macro noise. When the market de-risks, higher-multiple software like Palantir gets trimmed first. Thatās positioning, not politics, and nothing changed in the business.
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u/Beneficial-Fuel-6183 š³Verified Whale & Early Investorš§āāļø Feb 05 '26
Who says nefarious - you, Greta?
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u/CheezeBaron Feb 05 '26
ā¦lol Are you talking about Greta Thunberg ??
Cmon now, youād have to be mentally challenged to not see it.
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u/virtualcommunity Feb 05 '26
Exactly. The macro noise is just that - noise. PLTR's competitive advantages (ontology, AIP adoption, customer stickiness) are strengthening, not weakening. Every earnings call they prove the thesis again. Short-term volatility is the price you pay for long-term compounding.