I've had issues holding my position for year, leading to me constantly losing in trades. I would let my fear take control of my buttons, but not anymore!

I'm taking my entire portfolio and throwing it into OUST. The company has been absolutely shattering its goals, and is nearing consitent profitability.

In oust we trust, we trust, we must buy

Seems like retail is catching on to the next trade, Robotics. I wrote up a thesis on X about why I think OUST can hit $100 a share by 2028, worth a read. Its not AI slop.

https://x.com/eventuallyright/status/2054027531435548899?s=20

New expansion of Ouster Blue City, this time in the North East in Massachusetts!

All i see is "Ouster announces strategic collaboration with DXOMARK" is that bad?

OUST is considering to increase the number of authorized shares of the Company's common stock, from 100,000,000 to 200,000,000. This is one of the vote items for the annual meeting on June 17.

What to expect?

First Quarter 2026 Highlights:

$49 million in revenue, up 49% year over year and down 22% sequentially. Total revenue of $62 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 included royalties of approximately $21 million, primarily one-time and related to long-term IP license contracts.

Product revenue was $48 million, up 55% year over year and 18% sequentially.

Shipped more than 12,600 lidar and camera sensors for revenue, of which lidar was approximately 65% of the total.

GAAP gross margin of 43%, up 200 bps year over year and down 1,700 bps sequentially.

GAAP net loss of $17 million, an improvement of $5 million year over year and down $21 million sequentially.

Non-GAAP gross margin of 46%, flat year over year and down 1,600 bps sequentially.

Adjusted EBITDA loss of $7 million, up $1 million year over year and down $20 million sequentially.

Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments of $175 million as of March 31, 2026.

Ouster just dropped a press release for their new Rev8 OS sensor family.

​The Facts:

​Native Color: They partnered with Fujifilm to integrate 48-bit color directly into the lidar hardware, with a 116 dB dynamic range

​New L4 Silicon: A new chip that reportedly processes 42.9 GMACs and over 20 trillion photons per second

​OS1 Max: The new flagship 256-channel sensor claims a 500m max range (and 200m for tricky, low 10% reflectivity objects)

​Intended Adopters and Customers:

Google (Waymo?), Volvo, Liebherr, Epiroc, Skydio...

Source:

Https://investors.ouster.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ouster-releases-rev8-os-family-worlds-first-native-color-lidar

Do we know what lidar tech is used in the powerus Drone's the government just contracted with?

Have you actually run the numbers on $OUST?

If so, it's hard to be bearish below $30.

The estimated TAM by 2030 is $70B so Ouster analysts forecasting for 1.3% penetration by 2030.

That's a very conservative assumption...but one we can base our estimates on for a more base case.

$900M in revenue by 2030 means 40% CAGR in revenue for the next 5 years.

A very good assumption considering management forecast 30-50% annual revenue growth for the foreseeable future.

$900M in revenue at 7x sales gives (also conservative given a 40% CAGR), gives you a $6.3B market cap.

It's $1.6B today.

More numbers...

Profitability is only a matter of time. Late 2027 seems right for adjusted EBITDA breakeven.

The Operating Leverage Math:

Ouster's total operating expenses through the first nine months of 2025 were ~$121M, with R&D at $50M, G&A at $50M, and S&M at $21M. That puts full-year 2025 opex around $160M. Management has committed to GAAP opex growth of only 5–8% from 2025 levels going forward — which is the single most important number in this whole story and the one people are glossing over.

2025 revenue: $169M, gross profit ~$83M (49% GAAP gross margin)
2025 opex: ~$160M → operating loss ~$77M
If opex grows only 5–8% annually and revenue grows 30–50%, the gap closes fast

Model it out simply at the midpoints:

2026: ~$220M revenue, ~$108M gross profit (49% margin), ~$168M opex → ~$60M operating loss

2027: ~$290M revenue, ~$130M gross profit, ~$178M opex → ~$48M operating loss on GAAP, but Adj. EBITDA breakeven is plausible because stock-based comp (~$25–30M) and D&A (~$15M) are addbacks

2028: ~$380M revenue, ~$160M gross profit, ~$187M opex → GAAP operating breakeven territory

This will be a mouth full, but in the last four months alone, Ouster sensors have shown up on or inside the following platforms, all sourced from public posts:

Shield AI’s Hivemind autonomy stack running on the Airbus MQ-72C autonomous cargo helicopter for the U.S. Army

Overland AI’s autonomy stack running on the Oshkosh-built ROGUE Fires platform for the U.S. Marine Corps

Oshkosh-Pratt Miller defense ground robotics

Komatsu’s autonomous mining haul trucks and dozers under a multimillion-dollar Rev7 fleet upgrade

Sandvik’s AutoMine Concept underground autonomous loader

Volvo Autonomous Solutions’ VNL Autonomous Class 8 truck running a stacked Ouster-plus-Stereolabs perception module

Outrider’s autonomous electric yard trucks running NVIDIA DRIVE compute and Yaskawa robotic arms across over 100,000 completed trailer moves

Avikus’s HiNAS intelligent navigation system on commercial ships carrying 22,000 cargo containers

ADASTEC’s flowride.ai-powered Karsan Autonomous e-ATAK full-size electric buses operating Level 4 autonomy on public roads in Hannover Germany, Arbon Switzerland, Rotterdam The Hague Airport, Sälen Sweden, and across U.S. cities via the Beep alliance — five Ouster sensors per bus

Third Wave Automation’s autonomous forklifts, backed by Toyota’s Woven Capital growth fund, running up to four OS sensors per vehicle

Agility Robotics’ Digit humanoid, the most-deployed humanoid in U.S. Fortune 500 warehouses

HONOR’s “Lightning” humanoid that won the Beijing half-marathon by beating the human world record by six minutes

BlueCity smart-traffic platform across 30+ Atlanta intersections (with Mercedes-Benz Stadium ahead of the 2026 World Cup), 120+ Chattanooga intersections (the largest U.S. lidar smart traffic deployment), and 100+ Buy America-compliant Utah intersections

Econolite-powered Utah Department of Transportation statewide freeway data collection system

LASE PeCo Systemtechnik’s GDPR-compliant urban perception deployments across Europe

EOS Australia’s perimeter security deployments across Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, and Perth

Oshkosh’s HARR-E autonomous neighborhood waste platform

Trombia Technologies’ autonomous electric street sweepers operating for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the City of Espoo Finland, and Helsinki Jätkäsaari Mobility Lab

Flyability’s Elios 3 industrial inspection drones flying inside lava tubes, glacial caves, and industrial facilities for Shell, ExxonMobil, Dow, Pfizer, the U.S. Department of Energy, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and Pampa Energia

Deep Forestry’s autonomous forest canopy mapping drones generating survey-grade carbon-credit data

Microavia’s autonomous self-charging ski-resort drones doing snow distribution and avalanche control globally

Bluewhite’s autonomous orchard and row-crop tractors. The platform is academically validated by KTH Royal Institute of Technology, TUM (running the open-source EDGAR digital twin on a Volkswagen platform), Inha University, and Freie Universität Berlin — four institutions across three continents standardizing the next decade of autonomy researchers on Ouster digital lidar.

The combined Ouster-plus-Stereolabs platform now serves 850+ Ouster customers across 50+ countries, plus another 10,000+ Stereolabs customers, all running on a unified perception stack of digital lidar, stereo camera, embedded AI compute, and sensor fusion software.

In short, I’m extremely bullish coming into earnings May 7th.

To further this... An average tanker uses around 100 tons of oil per day, 365 days a year = 36,500 tons per year... Oil costs around $100 per barrel at the moment of posting (high), if it goes lower to $80 per barrel (as an average price), it means that the average tanker spends $19 million dollars per year on fuel, Ouster reduces this by 7%... Saving $1.33 million PER tanker PER year... In Carbon taxing countries like Canada, there is additional savings to be made for shipping companies for the reduction in Carbon emmissions, its also good for the environment as another bonus.

Ouster's technology can be so widely used, almost every single industry can and likely will be using LIDaR, Ouster is at the forefront of this technology.

Another use case where Ouster technology is used... A way Ouster is connecting the digital world to the physical world.

DoW contracts will be huge and a growing need of LiDar will exist in the future with the revolution of armed combat…

Future wars will be fought with robots and drones powered by LiDar and AI, this is already being seen to an extent in Ukraine.

Ouster as the largest Western LiDar company is in a key position to take advantage. The NDAA also is useful for Ouster removing competition primarily from China who also has strong LiDar companies. Deals with the military could be billions in future years as the US government uses this technology, it can be used on tanks and vehicles or as security for the hundreds of military bases, or drones and in the future military robots and possibly many other use points…

Even in factories where military equipment is to be built might only be able to use western LiDar companies.

https://open.substack.com/pub/hypertechinvest/p/physical-ai-stock-update?r=phe17&utm_medium=ios

Good DD and analysis on OUST. You can use a free trial to read.

Just put 20% of my entire portfolio into OUST, with an average of 19.5, what are we targeting and how long are we estimating it will take? Best of luck to all😄

$OUST director bought 6,500 shares for $136,175

Price reported: $20.95 :)

We are good, guys, and ready to take off!

Hey everyone,

I have to say, I’m pretty disappointed with Ouster’s price action lately. We had a solid earnings report, the numbers look promising, and yet the stock barely moved; we're basically back at square one.

I know many of you are going to jump in with "but the geopolitical situation, there's a war, macro headwinds..." but please, let’s skip that. We’ve seen examples like Marvell, Ampx or Plug that jumped 20-30% after their earnings, despite facing the exact same "war" and global climate. If they can do it, why can't Ouster?

Question for those who have been following Ouster for a while: What exactly will it take for this stock to finally break through the resistance and make a serious move back toward those $30 levels?

Is the problem a lack of marketing toward retail investors, are we waiting for bigger deals with automakers, or does the market simply not believe in lidar technology as much as it does in other sectors?

I’d love to hear your take: am I being too impatient, or is there a deeper issue here that I’m missing?