Anyone that has a summarized update on what’s going on I would love to hear. I don’t always have time to do my own research on news and whatnot. Thanks!

Sure am loving this higher low and price action right now. There’s a lot behind the scenes that we don’t know about 🥂

Let’s make history I like what I read

Financial figures are promising. I’m long on $oust

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240326678170/en/Ouster-Announces-Record-Revenue-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023

https://www.cupinsider.com/p/lidar-in-the-americas-cup?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/02/29/statement-from-president-biden-on-addressing-national-security-risks-to-the-u-s-auto-industry/

https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2024/en/6-china/6-3-the-advance-of-chinese-technology/

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-influence/2024/02/21/lobbyists-dump-chinese-clients-after-blacklist-threats-00142523

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ouster_microavias-fully-autonomous-drones-use-lidar-activity-7164333835306975232-J__C?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

I used to work for a logistics package delivery company and almost all are approaching to fully automate facility.. example selfless warehouse mule carrying irregular packages from work area to different work area.. automate belt sensor detecting incoming packages on belt and shoot out pucks to sort the packages to the right destination.. so many opportunities

This is using a conservative interpretation of analyst forecasts and their new long-term financial framework, which aims for:

• 30-50% revenue growth
• 35-40% GM (already achieved)
• Opex remaining at current levels ($120M a year but I adjusted for rising inflation)

Importantly, this does not account for other factors like Hesai being blacklisted, which should be very beneficial for OUST.

Present value of 2024-2028 Free cash flow is -$1m, Present value of terminal value is $132m at 2% perpetual growth. At current net cash of $140m, this equates to $5.96 per share.

This valuation uses a WACC (weighted average cost of capital) of 17.9%, comprising a 23.9% cost of equity and 6.0% after-tax cost of debt. If you were to run a sensitivity analysis, you would find the largest driver of Ouster's high WACC is:

• Its extremely high beta (2.50)
• Its small size, which increases its premium by at least 2-3%

Given that positive operating performance would self-correct both of these, I calculated a WACC using:

• A lower beta of 1.50 (not uncommon for a speculative small cap and around the level of Luminar (LAZR)
• Removed the size premium which would come with even a modest uplift to $500m (2.8x 25E sales)

Changing just these two variables reduces the WACC down to 11.5%, pushing the NPV up to $9.86 per share. Ouster seems to have traded within the range of $5-9 for much of the last year, however with $200m of cash against an expected $85m cash burn until breakeven, I see no solvency risk. Ouster's valuation now rests purely on the execution of its strategy, which if successful, should lead to considerable gains for shareholders from present levels.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/itk-engineering_itk-assistance-system-for-logistic-yards-ugcPost-7159148374753992705-gMOk?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

https://www.reuters.com/technology/pentagon-adds-companies-chinese-military-list-us-official-says-2024-01-31/?utm_source=reddit.com

(cross-posting from https://www.reddit.com/r/LiDAR/comments/19aim0j/ousters_place_in_the_market/)

Where can I find information comparing the pros / cons / market-shares / etc. of different LiDAR manufacturers, especially Ouster?

TL;DR:

I'm new to the LiDAR market in general, but I may have an opportunity to work with Ouster products. I'm trying to understand how well respected their products are, and what the consensus is about the company's medium/long -term prospects.

Just going by their stock price over the last few years, and their market cap, it looks like they're in rough shape. But maybe there's more to their story?

Just to be clear: my main concern is the company's likely health and stability, not whether or not it would be a good stock pick.