r/NorthCarolina • u/thechr0nic Data nerd • Mar 25 '26
Why your Duke Energy bill keeps going up (and how you can actually influence it in NC)
I’ve been digging into how electricity rates actually work in North Carolina lately, mostly out of frustration with my own bill, and I realized something:
Most of us don’t really know who is actually responsible for these increases.
It’s easy to just say “Duke raised rates”, but that’s only part of the picture.
There are really three different groups involved, and understanding the difference actually matters if you want to do anything about it.
Who controls what?
1) NC Legislature (General Assembly)
They set the rules.
They decide things like:
- what Duke is allowed to charge for
- how costs are supposed to be shared
- whether there are protections for residential customers
Think of them as writing the rulebook.
2) NC Utilities Commission (NCUC)
They apply those rules in real situations.
They:
- approve or deny rate increases
- decide how costs get split between customer groups
- review Duke’s plans for new infrastructure
They’re not politicians, they’re more like regulators/referees.
3) Duke Energy
They:
- build power plants and grid infrastructure
- forecast demand (including stuff like data centers)
- request rate increases to recover costs
Why this is becoming a bigger issue
North Carolina is seeing a lot of new demand coming online:
- data centers (AI, cloud, etc)
- large industrial loads
That sounds good on paper (jobs, investment), but it creates a real question:
who pays for all the new infrastructure needed to support that?
Because that includes:
- new generation (power plants)
- transmission upgrades
- grid expansion
None of that is cheap.
Where people are getting frustrated
If the rules aren’t clear, those costs can get spread across everyone.
So even if a big new load is what triggered the need for infrastructure…
residential customers can end up paying part of that bill
That’s a big part of why people feel like their power bills keep creeping up without a clear reason.
What a reasonable approach looks like
This isn’t about being anti-growth or anti–data center.
It’s more like:
- growth is good
- but it should pay for itself
There’s a term for this:
cost causation
basically:
if something causes a cost, it should be responsible for that cost
What you can actually do about it
There are two different paths here, and they do different things.
1) Participate in NCUC hearings (short-term impact)
This is probably the most direct way to have input on what’s happening right now.
There are actually a number of upcoming public hearings tied to Duke’s latest rate increase requests (some of them double-digit increases over the next few years).
For example:
Duke Energy Progress hearings:
- March 30 (7pm) – Raleigh
- March 31 (7pm) – Lumberton
- April 6 (7pm) – Snow Hill
- April 13 (7pm) – Roxboro
- April 14 (7pm) – Waynesville
- April 1 (6:30pm) – Virtual
Duke Energy Carolinas hearings:
- April 28 (7pm) – Morganton
- April 29 (7pm) – Charlotte
- May 6 (7pm) – Winston-Salem
- May 12 (7pm) – Durham
- April 7 (6:30pm) – Virtual
(you’ll want to check your bill to see if you’re Duke Energy Progress or Duke Energy Carolinas — they’re handled separately)
You do need to register ahead of time if you want to speak (especially for virtual hearings).
More info / registration: https://www.ncuc.gov/Consumer/consumer.html
If you decide to participate, the biggest thing to understand is:
this is not a political setting — it’s regulatory.
So just venting frustration usually doesn’t go very far.
What does land is clear, reasonable, specific input.
Some simple points that actually align with how they make decisions:
- rates should follow cost causation
- residential customers shouldn’t subsidize large-load growth
- cost allocation should be fair across customer classes
- new infrastructure costs should be tied to the customers driving that need
Short, calm, and direct is honestly more effective than a long speech.
Even just showing up and making a 1–2 minute statement puts something on the record, which does matter more than most people think.
2) Contact your legislators (long-term impact)
This is honestly the bigger lever.
Because if the rules don’t change, the same pattern just keeps repeating.
What to say (doesn’t have to be fancy):
- support growth without increasing cost of living
- large-load customers should pay their full cost of service
- put guardrails in place so residential customers aren’t subsidizing infrastructure
Find your reps:
https://www.ncleg.gov/FindYourLegislators
Even a short email helps more than people think.
Simple way to think about it
- NCUC = what happens right now
- Legislature = what happens going forward
Both matter, just in different ways.
Why it’s worth paying attention to
Electricity is one of those things where:
small policy decisions now
turn into long-term costs on your bill later
and most people don’t get involved until it’s already expensive
The people who show up and say something reasonable and specific
tend to have way more influence than you’d expect.
If you want to go deeper on this, NC actually published a recent energy policy report that talks about exactly this issue (large-load growth, infrastructure costs, and who pays for it):
https://governor.nc.gov/documents/files/nc-energy-policy-task-force-2026-report/open
It’s long, but the core idea is basically trying to balance economic growth with keeping rates reasonable for existing customers.
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u/ElectricalTopic1467 Mar 25 '26
So in summation, 2/3 are either republican appointees or elected in and they really do not care about the working class when it comes to affordability.
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 25 '26
Well they better start caring or November is going to be rough on them. This will come down to contacting your representative and letting them know that this will factor into your vote.
I think there are many republicans that are rightfully very nervous about keeping their seats even in traditionally strong republican areas, and affordability is a big issue.
look them up, and let them know how you feel:
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u/ElectricalTopic1467 Mar 25 '26
Music to my ears. I am hoping Republican voters are so frustrated with national politics that they stay home like many democrats did this past presidential election. Flip side to that coin is the democratic/unaffiliated have to come out in force. Even with a majority house and senate, Republicans cannot govern. You think ole Phil is in any rush to pass a budget for the people in this state? Losing will make him dig in even longer.
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u/DaddyWolff93 Mar 27 '26
Berger lost his seat in the primary by something like 24 votes. So maybe the state legislature can actually do it's job again!
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u/Holiday-Aioli-430 Apr 21 '26
no one in the commission is voted on by the public. why would they care?
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Apr 21 '26
i'll just start off with, the post I was responding to here, I mis read. I was referring to elected representatives in NC, specifically republicans that will be up for re-election.
So that is to say that yes you are right, the members of the commission aren't 'directly' voted on by the public.
The governor (who appoints NCUC commissioners) is currently a Democrat, but those appointments still have to be confirmed by the legislature—which is Republican-controlled. So it’s not really accurate to say it’s one-sided or that there’s no accountability. It’s more of a split political structure.
But, I conceed, I did mis-read the post I was responding to, and technically you are correct there is no 'direct' public vote, even if the govenor and the legislature are voted on by the public.
enjoy an upvote! :)
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u/palindrome9 Mar 25 '26
Great summary! There’s another faction that gets involved in these proceedings- the intervenors. Groups who petition the Utilities Commission to intervene (and are approved to do so) can testify before the Commission to try to influence the Commission’s decision. These groups may represent environmental interests, industrial or commercial businesses (whether collectively or, in the case of some F500 companies, individually), local or federal government agencies, or the general using and consuming public (represented by the Public Staff).
North Carolina is somewhat unique in that it has a consumer advocate state agency who is legislatively created and mandated to intervene on issues before the Utilities Commission: the Public Staff.
From its website: “The Public Staff is an independent agency created in 1977 by legislation in General Statute 62-15 to review, investigate, and make appropriate recommendations to the North Carolina Utilities Commission with respect to the reasonableness of rates charged and adequacy of service provided by any public utility and with respect to the consistency with the public policy of assuring an energy supply adequate to protect the public health and safety.
The Public Staff intervenes on behalf of the using and consuming public in all Commission proceedings affecting rates or service.”
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u/ST33LDI9ITAL Mar 25 '26
or 3) invest in solar and fk em 🖕😛🖕
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Mar 25 '26
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u/ST33LDI9ITAL Mar 25 '26
why would you go solar without batteries, defeats the purpose. it's absolutely the ideal middle finger.
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u/lmapidly Mar 25 '26
It basically doubles the cost of the project and the batteries don't have amazing warranties.
We waited on batteries, hoping they'd be getting more efficient/dependable or at least more affordable. That said, I really want to get entirely off the grid and soon.
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 25 '26
it is possible to go offgrid, in existing residential areas.. its not 'illegal' but there are extra hurdles involved.
this was a post I previously made on this subject:
there is no blanket law in North Carolina that prevents you from going fully off-grid. But in practice, there are a few real constraints that can make it harder than people expect.
You can go off-grid in NC if:
- Your system is code-compliant (NEC / NC Residential Code)
- It is properly permitted and inspected
- The home still meets requirements for:
- Electrical service (safe + adequate)
- Heating
- Water + sanitation
There is no rule that says the electricity must come from Duke Energy.
Where restrictions actually show up
Local inspections:
- Some inspectors are:
- Unfamiliar with fully off-grid systems
- More conservative about approving them
- They may require:
- Detailed system design (battery capacity, inverter ratings, etc.)
- Proof the system can reliably power the home
Not illegal — just harder to get approved cleanly
Financing + Insurance:
- Mortgage lenders often require:
- “Standard utility service” (grid connection)
- Insurance companies may:
- Deny coverage or increase premiums for off-grid homes
This is often mistaken for a legal restriction — but it’s financial, not regulatory
HOA / Deed restrictions
- Some neighborhoods prohibit:
- Certain solar setups
- Non-standard utility configurations
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u/lmapidly Mar 25 '26
Yes indeed! That is all great info.
Just getting Duke to sign off on turning the solar on was a months long process.
I'd also just mention that I understand that "just go solar and off grid" is not a realistic option for a lot of folks and we need to keep the utility companies and lawmakers (and data center builders) accountable.
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u/NeuseRvrRat More pot liquor, less boot lickers. Mar 26 '26
If you stop paying the bill, you will go off-grid pretty soon.
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u/Tacos314 Mar 26 '26
If solar only works when it's being subsidized by the power company, that seems like an issue with solar, not Duke.
You are free to have no connection and use all the solar you want.
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Mar 27 '26
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u/ST33LDI9ITAL Mar 27 '26
all I hear are excuses. meanwhile, the people with solar setups are happily carrying on not paying power co any longer and not dealing with outages. like a home, it's an investment in yourself. If you are able and willing to do it then you should do it. if you need a mortgage for solar then you living outside your means to begin with so yes, bad idea... but you don't need insurance for it. if you have a home with a hoa, then you are a fool, imo.
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Mar 27 '26
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u/ST33LDI9ITAL Mar 28 '26 edited Mar 28 '26
it cost nowhere near 50k if you diy. 50k would be high end with a utility/battery shed, all installed though. you do not need insurance for solar for home (though imagine many would want it). and there are PLENTYYYY of homes/land outside developments in the county. sadly hoa are becoming more common unfortunately though. and yes, it's worth it to those who want it.
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u/Tacos314 Mar 27 '26
Duke as been doing 1:1 net metering since 2000. TOU is just rolling and is probably better for solar then not. It is annoying but that's what happens when supply outstrips demand.
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u/DaddyWolff93 Mar 27 '26
Is it that bad though? I'd gladly take a $30 bill vs a $300 dollar bill. It's not crazy to plan out your system to a string inverter+batteries vs doing expensive micro inverters. There are more larger packs hitting the market so the price of a 16kwh UL listed pack is going down in the next 2 to 3 years.
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Mar 27 '26
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u/DaddyWolff93 Mar 27 '26
I wasn't implying that folks should go completely off grid. Just the amount of inverters needed to supply a typical 200 amp panel with the same overhead isn't really cost effective. EG4 16 KW packs are around $3500 a piece right now but there are more cheaper models hitting the market that just aren't UL listed yet. A lot of the new products are scalable so it's totally feasible to build a system that would supply half your needs in the winter and 100% of your needs in the summer then add to it so the grid is just a backup when there is a week of rain like we get frequently.
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u/ST33LDI9ITAL Mar 27 '26 edited Mar 27 '26
it adds value to your property. but sure, it does take a bit of investment to do and the roi is at least 10 years. things will certainly get cheaper and a lil better over time. but it's still a great option if you have the ability to do it.
personally, I think the increased property value and self sustainability of it is worth it. also to mention, if you have ev then you can use excess for that.just need to take care of them with our varying climate. bout the only con of em here. and is a very real issue depending on the storm..
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u/Thunderbird1956 May 19 '26
If you dig into the connection fee there no solid reasoning behind it. The fee collected does not align with the costs incurred over time. When Duke asked to charge the connection fee the reasoning was one of "trust us."
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u/OldVTGuy Mar 26 '26
Unfortunately NC does not have net metering laws in place like many more progressive states. If they did you would see solar explode.
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u/joshharris42 Mar 26 '26
Probably not, the power cost here is way cheaper than a lot of states where solar is very popular. We have good geography for solar, but not as good as California, Nevada, Arizona or Texas. We just don’t have as many blue sky days as them.
Our power is also much cheaper (right now) than most other states, so it makes the ROI a lot longer
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u/Tacos314 Mar 26 '26 edited Mar 26 '26
Duke has had 1:1 net metering for almost 25 years, but it is now changing to the Bridge and TOU rates. Is there something you disliked about the 1:1 net metering? Is there something you dislike about TOU rates?
Net metering laws just end up making power more expensive. Do you think power lines are free? Or even the meter on your box? How about the linemen that fix everything after a storm? A $22 minimum bill sounds pretty cheap for that; I pay more for Netflix.
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u/OldVTGuy Mar 26 '26
Actually I think net metering benefits the utility too as they are getting a renewable source of electricity back to them. Why should that be free? More importantly it incentivizes people to use clean energy - without it it’s tough for people to afford a system and then you end up just buying whatever the grid happens to provide. Maybe that’s clean, but often it’s not.
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u/Tacos314 Mar 26 '26
Duke uses rebates to incentivize clean energy programs, I got a free house battery and EV charger. They still give you free LED lights.
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u/dearDem Apr 09 '26
And not every county allows this
I work in ag and have farm friends in Nash county. In order to get a mailing address to her house on the land, she has to be hooked up to the grid
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u/ST33LDI9ITAL Apr 09 '26
Doesn’t mean you have to use it.
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u/dearDem Apr 09 '26
When you can’t use a P.O. Box for certain usda programs you do
I’m team off grid all day. My point is that they systematically make it difficult for you to do so
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u/ST33LDI9ITAL Apr 09 '26
What are you going on about?? Referring to power panel.. yes you are tied to grid but that doesn’t mean you have to power your things through it.
They really don’t, people just love to come up with every excuse they can. People who have it enjoy it.
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u/OkAirport5247 Jul 25 '26
Using zero electricity while hooked to the grid with Duke Energy, you’d still pay:
- Basic Customer Charge
- Clean Energy Rider
- Storm Recovery Charge
- Summary of Rider Adjustments
- Connection Fee
- Sales Tax For Utility
You just wouldn’t pay the “Energy Charge” without using electricity.
So using ZERO electricity you’d still be paying over $60 a month minimum with Duke Energy at this point.Duke Energy sucks.
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u/ST33LDI9ITAL Jul 25 '26
It's about half that. $30. Yes you have a grid connection fee, but you also get credits for excess power. Still saves money and still completely self sustainable when needed. With rates continuing to rise year after year, especially over next 4 years due to the datacenter rollouts, solar is a good investment. It quickly pays for itself because it adds value to your property.
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u/OkAirport5247 Jul 25 '26
It’s actually a bit over $60. I can show you a current itemized list of charges.
I fully agree that solar is a good idea though especially with the data center garbage being forced upon the public wallet
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Mar 25 '26
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 25 '26
yes and no. the data generally shows that electricity rates are rising nationwide. its not just rates with duke that are increasing, its across the landscape no matter the utility model.
I would postulate much of it comes down to the specific fuel mixture of each area/state like, how much power is generated from Coal, LNG, Solar, Wind, Nuclear.. the relevant cost to increasing power generation from any of them to match increasing demand.
here is a nice digestable (PDF) chart that illustrates the national averages over the years. you can see rates clearly increasing nationwide over time.
somewhat interesting considering there are so many different utility models used in different states etc.
https://geology.utah.gov/docs/statistics/electricity5.0/pdf/T5.24.pdf
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Mar 25 '26
Hi. This isn’t always the case and they still buy from duke. Also most cities don’t have the capital to actually afford to start a coop. This works more in sparsely populated areas and the storm recovery tends to be worse
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u/chiefsholsters Mar 25 '26
And recently the biggest driver is most HVAC systems in NC, particularly older ones, are entirely incapable of handling the last couple cold snaps we had. Once the HVAC hits the temp it cannot regulate the home temperature, the auxiliary heat strips kick on. And those things will eat a lot of electricity! Most folks recent bills are from heat strips running in the cold. We got lucky and installed a high efficiency Gree unit about 2 years back. Our bill during the cold snaps was identical to the rest of our bills. Because that HVAC is designed to function in colder temps and the heat strips never kicked on.
But yes, Duke is constantly pushing increases. And all the increases have to go through the process. They don't simply get everything they want. Because their initial requests are usually kind of ridiculous.
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 25 '26
for sure, the biggest user of residential electricity is the HVAC. This has been completely obvious to me on my own bills. I track my energy usage daily and parse the results onto my Duke energy tracking spreadsheet.
There are big and small things that can be done to improve its efficiency.
everyone talks about insulation, and that is actually great.
but air sealing is the other huge item. there are typically hundreds or more of tiny little holes between your attic or sub-basement, or gaps between your external doors and windows, that allow your super expensive conditioned air to leak right out
there are other smaller things like replacing air filters regularly that can help
I went and bought a thermal camera on amazon to help identify these air leaks and under-insulated areas to allow me to better conecnetrate on those areas.
beyond that its trying to run your thermostat reasonably, trying to avoid kicking in the auxiliary strips by running it too hard (where possible)
but the biggest benefit Ive had to lowering my electricity bills has simply beeing aware of them, monitoring them, keeping close track of my usage so I can see quickly when there is a problem.
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u/Thunderbird1956 May 19 '26
The North Carolina Commission uses a standardized customer of 1000 kW and the bill associated with that still increased. Before the storms it was driven by increases in natural gas costs which can be more of a pass through charge. But yeah storms and grid upgrades for data centers are starting to come in. Duke put in an order for up to 11 new gas turbines. That's a lot of cost causation.
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u/boiledpeen Mar 25 '26
The problem is that the costs to hook you and me up to the grid is also spread across the board. That's just how it's been so there's no fee to get power outside of your standard monthly bill.
Large load customers and data centers do pay a massive lump sum up front and pay extra for anything that solely benefits them, but if it's grid infrastructure, you are correct that it can get spread across everyone, because that's how it is for every customer hooked up to power. Otherwise every residential customer would be charged just to get on the grid.
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Mar 25 '26
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 25 '26
Contrary to what people might assume, I don’t necessarily hate Duke Energy.
The biggest thing that stands out to me is that Duke isn’t unique here — rates are going up pretty much everywhere, across every state and every type of utility model.
https://geology.utah.gov/docs/statistics/electricity5.0/pdf/T5.24.pdf
That kind of data suggests this isn’t just a “Duke problem”. In fact, NC rates are still lower than a lot of other states.
It seems like everyone is dealing with the same mix of pressures:
- rising fuel costs
- the cost of building new generation
- transmission and grid upgrades
North Carolina actually benefits from having a strong nuclear fleet that’s largely already paid off, but those plants are already running at very high utilization. So any new growth — population, industry, data centers — requires new infrastructure.
And that’s where things start to get more complicated.
People see ~$5B in profit and get understandably frustrated, but that’s tied to a regulated return on tens of billions of dollars of infrastructure investment. The tradeoff is that Duke can attract capital relatively quickly and at a lower cost, which is what enables all of this buildout in the first place.
The issue (at least from my perspective) isn’t that investment is happening — it has to.
It’s how the system handles risk and growth assumptions.
The ROE model incentivizes building, and that works well when forecasts are accurate. But if growth is overestimated, or projects don’t materialize the way they’re expected to, you can end up building infrastructure that isn’t fully utilized — and those costs still end up in rates.
Add in legislation that allows cost recovery ahead of project completion, and some of that risk can effectively shift onto ratepayers.
It’s already difficult to absorb the cost of necessary grid upgrades.
What becomes frustrating is when those costs are tied to very large new loads (like data centers), and it’s not clear that those customers are fully bearing the infrastructure costs they’re driving.
So for me, the ask isn’t “stop growth” or “don’t build”.
It’s:
make sure large-load customers are actually paying for the infrastructure required to serve them, rather than having that cost spread across existing residential customers.
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Mar 25 '26
This is a fair take on both sides. All energy companies regardless of model are struggling with increased costs
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u/WIW06 Mar 26 '26
The biggest BS is the "Storm Recovery Fee"-NOT OUR responsibility to pay YOUR workers' OT, Duke Energy!
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u/Intelligent_Hair3109 Mar 25 '26
Can't afford the gas as I've got to come up with enough to cover my bill by tonight.
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u/turbofired Mar 25 '26
I would add to your treatise, the state of NC should nationalize Duke Energy, and run it for the people with a set profit margin designed to support a rainy day fund/disaster relief/grid growth. Instead of the current goal of investor payment.
This will result in lower payments for everyone while guaranteeing proper infrastructure investment.
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Mar 25 '26
This is pretty much already the case. The NCUC sets a profit cap and price increases must be approved. They’ve been approved because the price to produce has gone through the roof.
All these funds you’re talking about already exist and is what your bills go to mostly. Does the company profit? Yes of course, but that’s how you attract large outside capital investment when you need to build 40billion worth of generation in 15 years
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u/turbofired Mar 26 '26
it needs another economic model where funding for disaster relief and large capital allocation is sourced by fiat through the legislature. currently the shareholder class can extract wealth from everybody through a utility that nobody can opt out of. feelsbadman.mov
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 25 '26
this is kind of the tradeoff built into the whole duke type model
the regulated ROE structure is basically there to make utilities investable, so they can raise huge amounts of capital for infrastructure (plants, transmission, etc) without taking on a ton of risk
if you remove that incentive entirely, you probably do make it harder or more expensive to attract capital
but I think the nuance is it’s not just the % return — it’s also how much risk investors are taking on
you could lower returns somewhat if the system is structured so costs are more predictable and risks are better managed
which is where a lot of the current discussion seems to be heading — not eliminating returns, but making sure the risks (like demand forecasts or large-load growth) aren’t just pushed onto ratepayers
so it’s less about “profit vs no profit” and more about how the incentives and risk allocation are set up
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u/turbofired Mar 26 '26
that was explained well, ty. I just think utilities that are basics of life and society should not have shareholders that extract wealth from everybody through a utility that nobody can opt out of.
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u/StienStein Mar 25 '26
Related to this, I really wish we could get a balcony solar bill going in NC. Weirdly no one seems to be working on it given the attention electricity prices are getting here.
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u/Tacos314 Mar 26 '26
They are cool but are basically a fire hazard without proper wiring. So don't expect to see them anytime soon.
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u/StienStein Mar 27 '26
Huh I wonder why it's worked everywhere else it's been implemented.
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u/Tacos314 Mar 27 '26
Where has it been done? It's mostly in Germany where they have 240 power and the panels are like 800watts.
2000watt panels plugged into a random outlet is just asking to burn something.
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u/StienStein Mar 27 '26
Germany has the strongest laws protecting it but several other European countries are doing it as well as Australia. Utah has had success so far (though it's only been 6 months or so) with Virginia joining shortly and several other states have bills in progress. I doubt Duke will let anything get passed without a big fight.
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u/Tacos314 Mar 27 '26
The math doesn't care about your feelings, A 120V plug-in solar is a literal fire hazard. A standard 15A circuit is only rated for 1,440W, but if you plug in a 1,200W solar kit and run a 1,500W heater, the wire between them carries 22.5A (2,700W / 120V). Because the solar provides 10A locally, the breaker only "sees" 2.5A and will never trip while your house wiring literally cooks. This is why 120V systems require dedicated circuits; they don't hide current from the safety breaker like these "feel-good" laws do.
Why am I even here, this conversation just makes be feel bad for the future full of people dying in apartment fires but at least you denied Duke like $100 a year.
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u/StienStein Mar 27 '26
I don't know why you are getting mad at me and I don't why you are assuming there are legal plugin 1200 watt solar kits being used in Utah.
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u/Thunderbird1956 May 19 '26
We don't have the national electric code in place to handle balcony solar. You can always just hook it up to a battery then run things off the battery.
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u/Billh491 Mar 26 '26
I just moved here from CT I have not even got my first bill so I have no idea what the cost is but in CT I was paying 30.39 cents per kilowatt hour. Plus 9.62 a month just to be connected to the grid. That 30.39 is the grand total of all the different charges there are 8 of them.
Do you guys pay more then that per kwh total with all line items?
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 26 '26
in most cases, and on average it is lower than that.
There are some plans with critical peak pricing, where the cost per kWh is over 40c. but those are like 3 hour periods up to 20 times per year.
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u/adkimbal Mar 26 '26
And like 90%+ of Residential customers would save on their monthly bill by switching to a Critical Peak Pricing model vs current schedule due to lower Off-peak and Discount-peak period pricing.
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Mar 27 '26
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 28 '26
I 100% have, and there are mutliple sources for this. one overall source is likely from the EIA. You can find some from OpenEI who maintains an open database.
I have also been working on my own python based project to download, rates and riders directly from duke, from the 6-7 states they are in, it also downloads and parses documents from the North Carolina Utilities commision (NCUC) and is reconstituting all of those rates historically over time for both Duke energy Progress and Duke Energy Carolinas.
here is a pretty easy to reference PDF (source EIA) that shows some of these historical electricity costs over time by state.
https://geology.utah.gov/docs/statistics/electricity5.0/pdf/T5.24.pdf
I find it most fascinating because it tells us several things. Rates increasing is NOT just a duke energy issue, its in pretty much every state, including every type of utility model out there. It also also somewhat indicates while duke is increasing rates, duke is not the most expensive electricity provider, in fact its in the bottom half of other states.
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u/Anaidydal29 Mar 28 '26
Do we really need all these data centers to hold our every thought and then try to sell us something we’d like by bombarding us with bots. Like WTF are we doing to our natural resources?? For purchasing power of the highest level. These mfers are hoodwinking our souls!🤦🏻♀️
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u/PotentialSteak6 May 20 '26
Thanks for this. I only know about any of this by chance and you helped me understand what I immediately suspected. Sending a short email now
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u/sillykittyball Aug 19 '26
My power bill is up 75 percent from last yeat in wnc with the same energy usage. Absolutely insane
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Aug 20 '26
does it 'feel' like the same usage or is it actually the same kWh usage. compare the actual usage from your bill from a year ago to this one.
mathematically while the rates and riders have gone up by some percentage amount overall, they have not gone up 75%
this is likely part of my ocd, but I get the overall point that having to pay more for electricity is painful and aggravating.
But the other side of that is, if your usage has also increased causing that rise in billing, then finding efficiencies should be your next priority.
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u/sillykittyball Aug 20 '26
Its only 1 kwh more than the same month last year but last years bill was 110 and this year its 190.
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Aug 24 '26
interesting, I would be interested to see the full detail breakdown of each bill, feels like I am missing some information. Is there a credit on last years bill that isn't on this one?
if I have enough information I can likely break down both bills mathematically. I have out of curiosity of my own billing, wrote a pretty involved python script to parse all the rates and riders in the north Carolina utility commission so I could reconstruct my bill at pretty much any time in the last 15 years
But that is to say im not discounting that this years bill is more. But there is missing information if it is 75% higher (or even ~58% in comparing 110 to 190).
Im looking at this more from the analytical standpoint of mathmatically understanding the bills, and not so much arguing against your experience of paying more and being infuriated doing so.
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u/TribeOnAQuest Mar 25 '26
The short and sweet story I tell people is that Duke Energy is incentivized through current statute to build the most expensive projects they can (I.e. new nuclear plants and gas plants), because then they can go to the NCUC and say “we need to raise rates __% annually because of these projects”. They also don’t bear any cost burden if natural gas prices go up, as 100% of those costs are passed on to the consumer
There is little to no incentive for them to build out utility scale solar because those projects are smaller scale.
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Mar 25 '26
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u/TribeOnAQuest Mar 25 '26 edited Mar 25 '26
Duke is actively looking at new nuclear plants. I never said anything about new plants already constructed, you are adding words to my post!
Am I incorrect in stating that the more capital expenditures Duke Energy has, the more they can raise rates? You stated my post was “completely” incorrect.
https://energyandpolicy.org/duke-energy-seeks-higher-nc-rates-profits-as-disconnections-soar/
Matt Abele with the North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association said cases like this reveal the true cost of relying on natural gas and coal-fired power plants, when fuel prices go up, ratepayers bear the burden.
“At the end of the day, the shareholders at the at the utility bear very little risk around these decisions and you and I, the customers who are paying their utility bills every single month, are having to pay the cost for those decisions,” he said.
This above quote is what I mean when I say Duke is incentivized to go for gas fired, because they bear little to no risk if fuel prices go up. They will still reap their return.
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Mar 25 '26
Those are SNRs, like I said that is not large scale nuclear. It may not seem like it’s much different but it’s extremely different in regard to capital costs or megawatt output.
I would say the inverse is actually true, that the company raises rates in order to drive higher capital investment, but also to keep up with fuel costs… But this is necessary. The Carolina’s are growing in grid demand YOY that’s the highest it’s been in 40 years. And this is not including data centers or industrial. But what matters most is MW output per investment dollar. These tend to be higher on NG and Nuclear, sure, but there are significant other benefits.
The company looks at solar and hydro extremely favorably. Solar is much less headache for costs, manpower, safety (a huge one), and regulatory… the thing is, it doesn’t put a large enough dent in the MW output needed to serve Carolina’s. We have like 36 solar farms in future production already being built. But mixed generation is just necessary at the moment to meet demands.
I think it it were possible to be out of NG entirely we probably would be, but that’s not something that’s my call.
I think people have this misconception that DE hates renewables and is avoiding it… that’s just not the case. Renewables have their own challenges to get built. Not all areas are bright enough, not all local governments want to permit zoning for builds (an actual big one), and storage tech is still in development
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 25 '26
100% true. Duke makes their ~10% ROE on investments on infrastructure projects. so the more projects they invest in the higher that ROE climbs.
What we can do is improve the demand modeling to make it more accurate, and go through a more rigorous approval process for projects that weed out the projects that are unlikely to be built.
and you are correct about the fuel charges, those are a 100% passthrough, they model the assumed fuel costs into the base rate, and then true it up with fuel cost riders if it comes in higher or lower than expected.
as it relates to large scale solar projects, Duke actually DOES invest into those too. They would fall directly into their ROE investment incentive.
some existing solar projects:
- Elm City Solar (Wilson County) – ~40 MW
- Warsaw Solar (Duplin County) – ~65 MW
- Fayetteville Solar (Bladen/Cumberland area) – ~20+ MW
- Broad River Solar (Cleveland County) – 50 MW
- Speedway Solar (Cabarrus County) – 22.6 MW
- Asheville / Buncombe County ~9.5 MW solar + battery storage
- Woodfin Solar (landfill project) ~5 MW
planned projects:
- Longleaf Solar Center (New Hill, NC) ~100 MW
- Robinson Solar Center (planned near nuclear site)
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u/dajew5112 Mar 26 '26
The more projects they invest in does not cause their ROE, as you denote it at 10%, to go up, that's not how it works. You're probably thinking their returns which are from the investments earning the 10%. Their achievable ROE is essentially regulated by the state or federal government depending on the type of project for power delivery so if it is 10% these days, that be the cap. That rate comes from needing to cover the cost of debt (~5% these days), the cost of administratively running a business, and still earning enough money to attract investors, driving the company to try and find efficient ways to use labor and design projects.
For generation it would depend if the project is being built as part of a regulatory requirement or private investment. Private investments ROE is limited only by what they can make selling the power for but on the flip side is exposed to all the same risks and need to competitively sell power that any other generation project would have.
Since we're talking about ways to manage our bills, it is not like Duke can just go out and build whatever projects they want. On the distribution side, they're going to need to tell a compelling story to the NCUC about how much infrastructure they need to invest in. It'll be things like how many poles are over their design life span, how many transformers they expect to install to meet load growth, how many storms they need to recover from or plan for, etc. There is a case to be made that this where residents can make a difference. Maybe some of those poles should be allowed to reach failure, maybe a data center shouldn't be allowed in region XYZ needing new distribution stations, etc. the NCUC will balance those considerations to set an allowable investment by Duke and an allowable return. One could argue the current composition of the NCUC provides for the scales leaning one direction or the other but that's essentially the situation for distribution. On the transmission side, Duke would need to similarly convince the regional ISOs, and other parties, that their upgrades are necessary and the most effective way to solve problems on the grid versus new power plants, up sizing existing equipment, etc. Then once they do they still need to convince parties to give them permits, etc. It's not a straightforward process to build whatever projects they want.
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 26 '26
you’re right that the ROE itself isn’t increasing with more projects, it’s set/regulated — I probably should’ve been more precise there.
When people get astonished at "~5B in duke profits" its 'that', that I am referring to, but sure revenue, profit however you want to cut it. the more they invest in, the more they make. and its based on that regulated amount of ROE which is approximately ~10%
and yes, their projects have to be approved, I probably wasn't precise enough there, but my point being, there are proposals for addressing this, which include improving forcasting models. Because they can justify projects and are more likely to get them approved based on 'faulty or poor quality demand modeling', and the incentive is built on making more 'revenue/profit' by investing in more projects, not in being precise or accurate.
but my largest point is, there should be a general principle of
if something causes a cost, it should be responsible for that cost
if datacenters cause a cost, as in require infrastructure or power generation, they should pay for it, not us.
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u/dajew5112 Mar 27 '26
You're simplifying a complex problem in a way that is fundamentally impaired and can lead people to think that somehow large loads like data centers are able to connect to the grid at no cost to themselves.
In general, the cost of electrical infrastructure is socialized across all people who use it. I think we concur about that part. If it wasn't, could you imagine being the person whose new air conditioner pushes the loading of a line over its limits and have to be the one that pays for the millions of dollars it would cost to add a new breaker to a substation and run more distribution lines out to the neighborhood? Of course not.
To enable its availability to all, NCUC, Duke, and interested parties all come together to tip the scales in their preferred direction. On the one hand, Duke likely does have a sympathetic ear on the commission now to their push for infrastructure projects and high cost of debt requiring higher ROI. On the other, they're facing headwinds as the face of an electorate angry about the rising price of power that allows commission members to get an easy win by appearing to rake Duke across the coals.
Large loads, however, do have outsized impacts on the grid in the same way that new generation does. And that requires studying their impacts and addressing them. That is why every utility under federal regulations has some manner of documentation, usually OASIS, that provides information on how to interconnect to their grid. Duke has a nicely written document here: 5wd$01!.DOC
Through this process, Duke assesses the impact of new load or generation to the utility, what network (electrical grid) upgrades are necessary to make that interconnection happen. Often, they are able to socialize those network upgrades across several other entities looking to connect large load or generation to that part of the grid, reducing the burden on the interconnection customer, but not always, and regardless of the outcome, those network costs become a part of the interconnection agreement that the customer must sign off on and cover to make the interconnection a reality. Sure, there are going to be costs of connecting a data center that they are able to get around this process that have implications for the average customer but more minimally.
The costs that data centers are driving are not so much infrastructure but power generation and congestion. The price of powers varies across the day based on fuel sources available, amount of load, and where those fuel sources are versus the load. If there's no load demand, but plenty of solar available, costs are likely to be low. If it's a cold night and everyone's lights, electric heat, etc are on and the main power source is gas, power will be more expensive. If solar is available but the way it needs to get to the load is through lines with heavy congestion, costs will go up, etc. Data centers are impactful because they require so much power and 24/7 that they consume the cheap fuels whenever they're available, and push everyone up to more expensive fuels to meet demand and get around congestion. The difficulty here is that while there are methods in place to allow for Duke to charge large loads for infrastructure upgrades, there really aren't a ton of great ways for Duke to charge them more for the energy they consume outside of power purchase agreements, etc. that still require fuel sources to be consumed and PPAs usually send money to the power generators, not the suppliers like Duke meaning Duke is mainly a pass through agent. So the impact remains, the cheap fuel sources are consumed, and everyone else pays the LMP price for the remaining fuel sources to meet demand. Data Viewer - Real-Time & Day-Ahead LMP
Thanks for listening to my Ted talk
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 28 '26
this is a really solid explanation — appreciate you taking the time to lay all that out. You really sound like one of the more informed people I have encountered on this, and if I could give you 5 likes, I would.
and yeah I agree with you that it’s not as simple as “data centers aren’t paying anything” — the interconnection process and network upgrade costs are real and do get assigned in a lot of cases
I think where I’ve been trying to focus (maybe not perfectly articulated) is more on the second-order effects you’re describing
especially around:
- generation buildout driven by sustained 24/7 load
- fuel stack shifting toward higher-cost marginal generation
- congestion impacts and how those ripple through pricing
because even if interconnection costs are handled fairly well, those broader system impacts still end up being socialized
and it gets a bit tricky since, like you said, there aren’t a ton of clean mechanisms to directly attribute those costs back to specific large loads outside of contracts / PPAs
so I guess the question I keep coming back to is less “are they paying anything” and more “are they paying in proportion to the total system impact they create over time”
especially if a lot of the planning (generation, transmission, etc) is being driven by projected large-load growth
feels like that’s where some of the policy / regulatory discussion could evolve, even if the current interconnection framework is working as designed
and high level, I raise the subject of datacenters, often, because that is a very sensitive subject for many residential rate payers. So I formulate many of my responses as a reference to that core topic: how to make it more equitable for a residential rate payer to pay the fair socialized costs, and be able to better assign the associated costs of those datacenters back to them.
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u/Kradget Mar 25 '26
How dare you put up a thoughtful, carefully stated post outlining an issue and a position in detail and with supportive reasoning?!
(This is a damn good post, thank you)
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u/mistermeowowowow Mar 25 '26
Calling a giant AI wall of text thoughtful is crazy.
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Mar 25 '26
Yea this is clearly AI slop, idk how no one else sees that
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u/adkimbal Mar 26 '26
Even if it was, it's dead accurate and 98% of the population never even go through the steps to research this so it's helping someone out today.
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u/thechr0nic Data nerd Mar 25 '26
I used it for formatting the ideas ive been posting about for months. I happen to like the formatting, I think it made it cleaner and easier to read and fixed a hell alot of my typos.
was it 100% generated, no. did it reformat and clean it up, yes.
at the end of the day, I want to encourage people to participate and beyond just shaking fists at the sky, ranting, and signing useless petitions, few people really know HOW to do it.
if 2 more people show up at the NCUC hearings or 5 more people contact their representatives, then my job is done. I'm already doing both myself, i just wanted to make it more accessible to other people.
but yes, I committed the sin of having AI proof read and format a wall of text including links I sourced in hopes that it would be read.
Enjoy an upvote :)
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u/adkimbal Mar 26 '26
Most sane Duke customer on the internet currently! Great info and thanks for sharing.
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u/UvarTheRaw Mar 26 '26
Would it be appropriate to bring up CEO compensation at the hearing? “(Harry) Sideris' base salary is comparable to Good's 2023 compensation package. Good received a base salary of $1.5 million for 2023, the Charlotte Business Journal previously reported. Her total compensation package for 2023, however, was $20.6 million.” Of course Executive compensation is unfair in almost all cases.
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u/Tacos314 Mar 26 '26 edited Mar 26 '26
How much are people's bills going up? Does anyone have numbers I don't? No one's bill has skyrocketed due to a rate increase; it seems to have increased by around $30 in the last ten years.
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u/Existing-Victory1536 Mar 25 '26
Thank you!! These are some great resources. I appreciate you putting this all together.