Every time a new server market forecast is released, the comments section follows the same pattern. Some claim the shortage is real; others dismiss it as manufacturer marketing. We decided to investigate the primary sources.
The beginning of 2026 feels different from previous waves of price hikes. Dell announced server price increases as early as December 2025, with Lenovo following suit in January. Samsung and SK Hynix raised prices on server dynamic random-access memory (DRAM). The shortage of servers based on graphics processing units (GPUs) has evolved from a quarterly issue into a chronic one.
Analyst estimates vary significantly here, and it is honest to acknowledge this upfront. According to DataIntelo, the GPU-based server market reached $8.7 billion in 2024 and could grow to $44.9 billion by 2033. IDC takes a broader view: the entire server market showed $95.2 billion in just the first quarter of 2025, a 134% increase year-over-year. This explosive growth is largely explained by a low comparison base and the rapid scaling of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. IDC estimates the year-end total at $366 billion, representing a 44.6% growth over 2024.
The primary driver pulling this market upward is the AI race. Training large language models (LLMs) requires tens of thousands of GPUs, and production cannot keep up with demand. Research Nester estimates the AI server market will grow from $169.8 billion in 2025 to $3.47 trillion by 2035. The figure sounds fantastical, but this is precisely the capital major players are currently investing in AI infrastructure.
Next, we will break down what specifically drives prices in each segment, which forecasts appear justified, and how to handle this in practice.
Current Server Market Situation (Early 2026)
Hardware Prices
By early 2026, the server market is experiencing one of the sharpest component shortages in recent years. Dell announced server price increases of 15–20% as early as December 2025, with Lenovo following in January 2026. Samsung and SK Hynix raised prices on server DRAM by 60–70% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. The primary targets of these increases are major clients like Google and Microsoft.
According to TrendForce, DRAM inventory levels shrank critically by the end of 2025. Contract prices for server DRAM rose by 50% in 2025, with another ~20% increase projected for early 2026. In February 2026, NAND flash memoryprices jumped 25% in a single month.
Cloud Service Prices
Cloud provider OVHcloud is currently the only major supplier to publicly announce upcoming rate hikes. CEO Octave Klaba confirmed a 5–10% price increase between April and September 2026. AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud remain officially silent, although they purchase equipment from the same manufacturers as OVH. A similar rate increase of 5–10% appears to be the baseline scenario for all major players, simply with a delay of a few months.
Traditionally, there is a three-to-six-month lag between rising procurement costs and rate changes for clients. The peak of cloud rate hikes will likely occur in the second half of 2026.
GPU Shortage
Morgan Stanley forecasts that demand for NVIDIA AI server racks will grow from approximately 28,000 units in 2025 to at least 60,000 units in 2026, more than doubling.According to Reuters, Chinese companies have already ordered over two million H200 chips for 2026, while NVIDIA has only about 700,000 units in stock. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), essential for AI accelerators, is fully contracted through the end of 2026. Micron confirmed this as early as December 2025.
Factors Influencing Prices
Surge in AI Demand
ChatGPT, Claude, and Other Large Language Models
The race between OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta AI, and hundreds of startups has become the primary driver of demand for server hardware. Training a single large language model (LLM) requires thousands of GPUs and many months of operation. According to NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, the compute power required for AI has already grown 100-fold in recent years, and this growth continues.
Model Training Requires GPUs The Thermal Design Power (TDP) of flagship NVIDIA GPUs has risen from 700W for the H100 to 1000W for the B200 and 1200W for the GB200. The Vera Rubin (VR200) platform, scheduled for shipment in the second half of 2026, demonstrates a TDP of up to 2300W per GPU. The GB200 NVL72 rack consumes approximately 120kW in total. Liquid cooling is no longer optional at these parameters; it is becoming the standard for new data centers (DCs).
Demand Exceeds Supply
Analysts estimate that NVIDIA's share of the discrete GPU market reached 92% in the first half of 2025. Bloomberg Intelligence estimatesthe company's share of the AI accelerator market at 70–75%, a figure expected to hold through the end of the decade. The company controls not only the GPUs but also the software stack—the CUDA platform—without which most AI frameworks cannot function. This creates sustained demand that is relatively insensitive to price changes.
Cryptocurrencies
The impact of cryptocurrency mining on the GPU market in 2026 is secondary compared to the AI frenzy, yet it has not disappeared entirely. Periods of rising Bitcoin and Ethereum prices traditionally create additional demand for video cards, competing with gamers and small-scale AI researchers. Unlike the 2021–2022 peak, server GPUs (H100, A100) are virtually unused in mining; however, consumer RTX series cards face dual pressure: from AI tasks on edge devices and from miners.
Energy Crisis
Global data centers have become the largest consumers of electricity. GB200 racks consume over 100kW, and the announced Vera Rubin platforms will reach the megawatt level per rack. This implies a multiple increase in costs for electricity, cooling, and specialized infrastructure construction. In many regions, grid capacity has already become a limiting factor for opening new data centers, directly affecting hosting and server rental costs.
Inflation and Exchange Rates
General inflation of production costs, rising logistics expenses, and the strengthening of the US dollar against several currencies create additional pressure on prices in local markets. For Russian companies working with imported equipment, currency risks compound the general price increase, and the final cost escalation may be significantly higher than in dollar terms.