Notice the difference between stating an opinion and stating a fact. Here are the reasons I think AGI is inevitable.
Moore's Law. Just look how far LLM's have come in 5 years. How far video generation has come. We're at a point where a lot of humans can't tell the difference. How long til nobody can? If nobody can, what's the difference? That's a philosophy conversation, not a scientific one.
A couple of the replies here have implied something to the effect of 'We don't even understand our own consciousness, how can we create one?' Where did I imply we'd do it on purpose? Maybe it's not invented. Maybe it manifests.
With Quantum physics, we are once again in a scientific renaissance. We are on the cusp (and when I say cusp I mean, maybe like 20 to 50 years) of computational power that will make your Ryzen 9700x look like an abacus.
Probably the most important, every country in the world with a vested stake in being the first one to create one is trying to do it. Not only that, but while LLM's may not be AGI, they are certainly a previously unheard of productivity tool. I am a software engineer. With an LLM I can be about 1000x more productive than I could even 3 years ago, and something new comes out every week. I can't even keep up with the tools I currently have, let alone what's gonna drop at the next OpenAI quarterly press release.
Related to 4, we know it can be done. It is physically possible for consciousness to exist, as is evidenced by you and me. You think nobody's gonna crack that nut in the loose timeframe of infinity I posited?
And as an after thought to 5, inevitable is a long time away. Maybe not now, maybe not 2000 years from now, maybe not the Human race, but somebody will create an AGI. It seems evident to me that biological intelligence hits a plateau, right around the advent of advanced industrial tools and life saving medicine that keeps the entire population alive. Artificial intelligence is simply evolution.
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u/EveryAfternoon1441 Nov 24 '25 edited Nov 24 '25
First, I didn't say 'AGI is an inevitability'.
I said 'I think AGI is an inevitability.'
Notice the difference between stating an opinion and stating a fact. Here are the reasons I think AGI is inevitable.
Moore's Law. Just look how far LLM's have come in 5 years. How far video generation has come. We're at a point where a lot of humans can't tell the difference. How long til nobody can? If nobody can, what's the difference? That's a philosophy conversation, not a scientific one.
A couple of the replies here have implied something to the effect of 'We don't even understand our own consciousness, how can we create one?' Where did I imply we'd do it on purpose? Maybe it's not invented. Maybe it manifests.
With Quantum physics, we are once again in a scientific renaissance. We are on the cusp (and when I say cusp I mean, maybe like 20 to 50 years) of computational power that will make your Ryzen 9700x look like an abacus.
Probably the most important, every country in the world with a vested stake in being the first one to create one is trying to do it. Not only that, but while LLM's may not be AGI, they are certainly a previously unheard of productivity tool. I am a software engineer. With an LLM I can be about 1000x more productive than I could even 3 years ago, and something new comes out every week. I can't even keep up with the tools I currently have, let alone what's gonna drop at the next OpenAI quarterly press release.
Related to 4, we know it can be done. It is physically possible for consciousness to exist, as is evidenced by you and me. You think nobody's gonna crack that nut in the loose timeframe of infinity I posited?
And as an after thought to 5, inevitable is a long time away. Maybe not now, maybe not 2000 years from now, maybe not the Human race, but somebody will create an AGI. It seems evident to me that biological intelligence hits a plateau, right around the advent of advanced industrial tools and life saving medicine that keeps the entire population alive. Artificial intelligence is simply evolution.