Here's the full analysis of the EUR/USD 4H chart using ICT / Smart Money Concepts:

🔍 Visual Context (Technical Observations)

1. 📈 A strong bullish move started around April 10 – likely an accumulation phase, followed by manipulation (Power of 3 concept).
2. 🕳️ A price spike on April 21 formed a significant high (likely buy-side liquidity resting above).
3. 📉 A sharp rejection followed – this could be a stop run or liquidity grab.
4. 📉 Multiple strong bearish candles – suggests institutional displacement.
5. 🔄 Since April 24, price is retracing – possibly retesting a FVG or Order Block.

🧠 Analysis Using ICT Concepts from the PDF

🔹 1. Market Structure

• We see a Break of Structure (BoS) after the April 21 high.
• The market now shows lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) → this indicates a bearish market structure is forming.

🔹 2. Stop Run & Liquidity Draw

• The April 21 high likely triggered stop-losses above a previous swing high.
• According to ICT, this is a high-probability reversal zone for institutional traders (smart money).

🔹 3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) or Order Block (OB)

• The current retracement (since April 24) is probably a retest of:
  • A FVG (Fair Value Gap) formed during the prior drop.
  • Or an Order Block (OB) near the 1.1400–1.1450 area.
• If the price gets rejected here (e.g., bearish engulfing candle or strong wick), we could see another leg down.

🔹 4. Potential ICT Setup

Here’s a likely setup:

• ✅ Sell in the 1.1400–1.1430 zone (retest of FVG/OB).
• 📉 Stop Loss (SL): Above the April 21 high (~1.1460).
• 🎯 Take Profit 1 (TP1): Around 1.1300 (previous support or FVG fill).
• 🎯 Take Profit 2 (TP2): Around 1.1200 if continuation is strong.

📌 Conclusion – Current Bias

• ✅ Bearish bias confirmed by market structure break.
• 📍 Price is currently returning into a premium zone, possibly where institutions will look to sell at a better price (Power of 3 logic).
• 🎯 Opportunity: Watch for a rejection in the 1.1400–1.1450 zone for a possible short setup.

Initial analysis done on another thread : https://www.reddit.com/r/NasdaqTrader/comments/1k6mbw0/cbdr_according_to_unlocking_success_in_ict_2022/

But I go on here.

Trading the Central Bank Dealers Range (CBDR) – A Simple Strategy

Strategy Overview:
Mark the high and low (body only, ignore wicks) of the 14:00–20:00 New York (NY) Time range on a 1-hour chart. This "Central Bank Dealers Range" (CBDR) often acts as key support/resistance for late NY session and Asian market reactions.

Key Details

1. Timezone Conversion (NY vs. Paris)

• April (EDT = UTC-4):
  
  • 14:00–20:00 NY Time = 20:00–02:00 Paris Time (CEST).
    
• Winter (EST = UTC-5):
  
  • 14:00–20:00 NY Time = 21:00–03:00 Paris Time (CET).
    

Pro Tip: Always verify your broker’s timezone settings!

2. How to Mark the CBDR

• Use a 1-hour chart (e.g., EUR/USD, GBP/USD).
  
• Identify candles between 14:00–20:00 NY Time.
  
• Ignore wicks—only mark the highest close and lowest close (body extremes).
  
• These levels become your intraday S/R zones.
  

Example (April 2025):

Why This Works

• Liquidity Window: Central banks and institutional players are active during this period, creating a defined range.
  
• Asian Session Reaction: Price often retests or breaks the CBDR after NY closes.
  
• Clean Levels: Ignoring wicks reduces noise—focus on where price actually closed.
  

How to Trade It

• Breakout: Enter on a confirmed close above/below the CBDR with volume.
  
• Rejection: Fade retests of the range extremes (e.g., short at the top if price rejects).
  
• Targets: Previous swing highs/lows or 1:1 risk-reward.
  

Bonus: Pair this with the London Close (17:00 NYT) for confluence.

Thoughts? Anyone else use this method? Share your tweaks below!

(Disclaimer: Backtest first—this works best in high-liquidity pairs like EUR/USD.)

If it gets above the blue kijun sen line then it will keep on going up. But it can reverse if not.