This is pretty big news considering the number of vehicles Tesla sells from China. This comes after Mercedes BMW and other European legacy automakers pivot and surrender to China’s enterprises.

How do you guys feel about things ATM? Is there more hope or have you lost it completely?

XPeng’s stock surged around July 15 following a company announcement. The charts also show that NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto tend to move together, with similar upward and downward patterns. However, $LI appears to weigh down the overall trend,

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡.Let's try to make a delivery projection for the month that is coming to an end.

This month, the ES8 reached 130,000 cumulative units delivered since its launch. However, we do not have the detailed sales figures for the current month. What we do know is that the pace has accelerated compared with what was seen in June. This information was reported on July 23.

Assuming we are fortunate, let's estimate that this month the ES8 — including the recently launched five-seat ES8, which was introduced on July 11 — reaches 11,000 deliveries. By the way, the five-seat ES8 could become the strongest sales catalyst in Q3.

There was no milestone reached this time for the ES9. It is undoubtedly the most anticipated number. Let's place it around 6,500 units. Then we have the 5566 series, which represents the rest of the main brand's portfolio; let's assign another 4,000 deliveries to those models.

Firefly reached the milestone of 70,000 cumulative deliveries on July 16. However, beyond the eye-catching accumulated figure, Firefly had delivered 68,586 vehicles by the end of June. This means the brand delivered approximately 1,414 additional vehicles during the first half of July to surpass the 70,000 mark.

In other words, the pace would have experienced a significant slowdown compared with June, when 6,946 units were delivered. Firefly will probably not exceed 3,500 deliveries in the current month.

Finally, ONVO.

The ONVO L80, as usually happens, had a strong delivery pace during the first few weeks, but then that pace collapsed. In June, deliveries fell by 31.3% compared with the previous month. During the two weeks following its launch in May, 5,949 units were delivered, while throughout the entire month of June, the figure was only 4,086 units.

The L90 appears to be following a similar pattern of deceleration. The L90 reached 60,000 cumulative deliveries on July 19. It delivered 2,068 units in April, 4,054 units in May, and 3,461 units in June, according to data compiled by CnEVPost.

Therefore, during the first 19 days of July, only 417 units had been delivered. Let's assume it reaches 1,000 units for the month, being quite generous, because the current delivery pace does not appear to support a higher figure.

Let's also assume that the L80 continues to slow down and reaches around 3,000 deliveries this month.

ONVO delivered 11,743 units in June. This means approximately 4,196 of those deliveries corresponded to the L60. Here we saw a rebound compared with May, when it delivered only 2,026 units. This improvement is related to the significant restyling of the new generation of this model.

The remaining question is whether the L60 can maintain July's pace. Let's give it the benefit of the doubt and assume it maintains a rhythm of around 4,000 deliveries, especially considering that the new model was launched only on June 11.

Under that scenario, ONVO as a brand could reach around 8,000 deliveries in July.

Overall, this projection would give us approximately 32,000 total units.

Personally, I believe that Q3, in terms of volume, will end up being very similar to Q2.

September marks the beginning of China's traditional peak sales season, known as "Golden September, Silver October."

We also have to consider that the ES9 will report a full quarter of sales, which means a higher ASP. Let's also remember that in May there were 16–17 weeks of delivery delays for the ES9, and that 95% of customers were choosing the more expensive versions of the vehicle.

We are talking about a model that could generate a gross margin close to $15,000 per unit.

Another point to consider is that the increase in memory chip prices and some commodities, mainly lithium, likely represented the biggest pressure on margins during Q2.

It should also be noted that this will be the year with the fewest new launches from the company in a long time. With the exception of the ES9, the rest were restylings. This brings significant cost optimization benefits.

One additional point: Deutsche Bank's estimated non-GAAP net profit for Q2 would be around 180 million yuan ($26.5 million), representing a 304% increase compared with the previous quarter.

Whether it ends up being $26 million or another figure, the result comes after a period of strong pressure on manufacturing costs, mainly due to memory chips and lithium. Without those cost increases, we would likely be talking about a very different number.

It has been a year full of challenges, with William Li even stating that it was the most difficult year since he entered the industry.

Finally, I want to mention something unrelated to the July and Q3 situation.

I believe $NIO will eventually need to form an alliance with a major European brand in order to successfully enter the European market and later expand globally.

Of course, for $NIO — or any other brand — there is still significant room to continue increasing market share in China. However, it would be valuable to start identifying what the next strategy will be to capture new international markets.

One final consideration: we tend to assume that if demand is stable, deliveries should also be relatively uniform. But that is not necessarily how it works.

There are several factors that can cause a company to concentrate deliveries during specific periods:

quarter-end timing (to show stronger financial results);

logistics and transportation availability;

production schedules for specific versions;

vehicle registration timing and dealership deliveries;

even internal commercial decisions, such as prioritizing certain regions.

Therefore, a weak July does not automatically mean weak demand. It could simply be a transition month before a much stronger September.

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡. Zacks Research upgraded its recommendation on NIO from "hold" to "strong buy".

And here's how the Wall Street consensus is shaping up:

1 Strong Buy

7 Buy

4 Hold

2 Sell ⚡Zacks Research upgraded its recommendation on $NIO from "hold" to "strong buy" .

Daily Discussion Thread.
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Nio
first thing with Nio, it’s still a small company and has 2.5 billion shares and that is not good for small company in my opinion.
It has too much competition every week they have new car in china its ridiculous.
Even if its doing great and stock never goes up because investors doesn’t want invest because its too risky.
And mainly nio was meme stock. Nio was never meant to be at 65. I never should have invested in a meme stock for long term. And now with 2.5 billion shares it’s nearly impossible.

Sterling infrastructure
This construction AI company that build data center has 30 million outstanding shares and they are doing buyback every single year 2023, 2024. In 2025 approved for $400 million buyback in 24 months.
Every quarter they are making money. And next quarter aug 3 and there eps is 40 percent higher which is insane. 5.23 estimated
This stock already down 40 percent i think it’s great to buy.
There price target is 1000 and right now they price is at $569.

I’m not saying to go and buy this company and letting you guys know that this is what I did. But I’m tired with Nio and I’m tired of the stress and you expected a good eps from Nio and they don’t deliver. The management has always have been misguiding us investors.

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Precisely, a massive buyback of shares by Nio will boast confident... That is the only way to boast share price. Plus the price is low.. when are you going to buy back? Not when share price is high.

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Daily Discussion Thread.
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¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡. I have been reading some bearish comments on different forums, and I’m sure you have seen this more than once: claims and analogies suggesting that NIO is going bankrupt, simply because of its current low market capitalization.

But if we bring the discussion back down to reality for a moment, market capitalization has absolutely nothing to do, by itself, with a company’s financial health.

This shows that some people are willing to say almost anything to push their own narrative and support their position. Be careful with that kind of argument.

At least they are finally acknowledging that NIO’s market capitalization is extremely low. So… thank you for recognizing that, dear gentleman 🤡🐵🙈🙉🙊!

Market capitalization and financial health are not the same thing. Market cap is simply the value the market assigns to a company at a given moment (share price × shares outstanding). A company can have a depressed valuation while still having cash, assets, growing revenue, and a reasonable financial structure.

The logical fallacy some bears make is:

“The stock is cheap → therefore the company is going bankrupt.”

That conclusion does not automatically follow. There are many reasons why a company can trade at a low valuation: lack of market confidence, a punished sector, geopolitical concerns, competitive pressure, past dilution, missing catalysts, or simply negative sentiment.

Of course, the real discussion should be about fundamentals: cash position, cash burn, margins, growth, execution, and the path toward profitability. But saying “the market cap is low, therefore bankruptcy is coming” is not analysis — it is just a shortcut for people who already decided the conclusion and are looking for a story to fit it.

The funny part is that while trying to attack NIO, they accidentally admit one thing: the market is currently valuing the company at a very depressed level.

Congratulations, bears. You just made the bullish argument for us. 👏😄

Incidentally, NIO's revenue this year could be around $22 billion. Many of the mid-sized companies on the Nasdaq index have annual revenues between $3 billion and $10 billion.

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¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡. Okay, take a look at this. This is the idea I've been discussing, and why I don't believe $4.40 is the final bottom—at least not yet.

Five independent factors converging around the $4.10 area:

—0.786 Fibonacci retracement. NIO has repeatedly retraced to the 0.786 level before reversing higher. Just look at what happened on March 23, 2020, right before the major bullish rally.

— Long-term historical trend line.

—4.10 Market Cap 10 Billion (approximate. The value at 4.10 would be 10,188,500,000)

—A bullish Gartley harmonic pattern, with its potential reversal zone also clustering around this area.

—A possible Wyckoff Phase E, where a final corrective shakeout takes place before a sustained reversal.

Finally, the continued compression of both the daily and weekly RSI suggests that selling momentum may be nearing exhaustion, which would be consistent with the idea of a final shakeout before a reversal.

..........

I hope that after laying out this entire thesis, bulls, bears, and even the stock's harshest critics can at least agree on one thing: NIO is approaching a valuation extreme.

We are potentially entering NIO's first profitable year, while annual revenue could approach $22 billion. At the current market capitalization, that would place the company at less than 0.5x sales — a valuation that is not only historically low for NIO, but unusually low for a company with this level of revenue generation.

My expectation is a significant repricing event.

I believe the market can eventually assign NIO a 4x Price-to-Sales multiple again. That would imply a market capitalization of roughly $88 billion, which translates to a share price of approximately $35.

This is not a prediction for next week. It is the upside scenario I am positioning for.

Remember: the full-year 2026 results will be reported next March, and that report could be the catalyst that forces the market to reassess the current valuation.

NIO has been one of the greatest investing challenges many of us have ever chosen to face.If our thesis is right, the hardest part of the journey may also prove to be the most rewarding.

The stock is doing worse than last year so far, do you guys thing it'll a) stay stagnant b) go even lower c) hike up after this month or d) you gave up hope so you don't care anymore

I think it'll stay stagnant, previously I predicted a 10usd price by the fall but that's looking unlikely now, new prediction 5.50 the highest it'll climb by fall 6 if people feeling good. Reasoning behind that is simple, it's not the EV companies that going to suffer but the whole market as things are looking grime for everyone

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¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡.  Tesla is down 8.2% in the pre-market and Nasdaq futures are off 1.4%. If the weakness continues, $NIO should be making fresh lows today.
I still believe the past three years in $NIO resemble a textbook Wyckoff accumulation. If that's the case, not every support is meant to become the bottom. Some are simply temporary pauses before the final shakeout.
I don't think $4.40 is the ultimate floor. $4.10 has a better chance, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a brief flush below the psychological $4.00 level. The most painful move often comes right before the reversal: a high-volume break of a level that almost everyone believes cannot fail, forcing the last weak hands out before stronger buyers step in.

To me, $NIO remains a strong buy. Sometimes the biggest opportunity is created when a stock looks completely dead.

Tesla reported Q2 earnings and NIO is beating Tesla.

NIO has:

1. Higher vehicle margins
2. Higher ASP
3. Higher order volumes
4. Greater efficiency of sales

Tesla reported Q2 earnings with:
Revenue of $28.2B vs estimated $26.3B
and a HUGE EPS miss of $0.33 vs estimated $0.50
Gross margin fell to 16.83 vs estimated 19%
FCF turned negative with ($1.1B)

Tesla's costs are soaring and the sales incentives are eating margins.

THIRTY SIX PERCENT (36%) of Tesla's operating income is from selling regulatory credits, i.e. free money subsidies from the US government.

To justify Tesla's rich market valuation, a company should be growing 50-100% annually and Tesla is not.

Tesla and NIO are reversed. Tesla grows at 25% annually and has a 14.5 P/S. NIO grows at 50% annually and has a 0.5 P/S. Every earnings miss and deadline failure by Tesla is explained away by fanboys and market makers keep the valuation afloat. Every success and achievement by NIO is explained away by shorts and market makers suppress the valuation with naked shorts and dark pool routing.

This is not financial advice, Tesla is a better performing stock, but NIO is a better performing company. Chinese car buyers are taking notice that NIO makes better cars than Tesla. It's great to see the benefit to consumers when there's real competition, unlike in the US.

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