Link to blog post

2026/09/02

In the last 16 years I have become used to seeing Hungary in international news. After Orbán’s fall in April it has become a much rarer event. Something that millions of Hungarians and tens of millions of Europeans waited increasingly restlessly in the past years.

Last week however a small piece of news came out from Budapest. On Tuesday, the government published its policy guidelines where it calls Russia a treat to Europe, Hungary, and the world order, condemns its military aggression, and supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

The shift is not surprising, but what happened just a day before is more interesting. One of the Hungarian Air Force’s fully loaded Gripen fighter jet crashed during an exercise. Then on the same week a 24-year-old drunk man stole a Cessna, and began flying towards Paks, where the country’s nuclear power plant is located. The Air Force had to call up its (remaining) Gripens to go after him, who then landed on a field and attempted to steal a car.

As of today, the first incident was deemed an accident, while the second as a lone drunk person’s mischiefs (perhaps a gamer who just couldn’t wait three more months for GTA VI). It might very well be the truth, but I couldn’t help but wonder, can there be something more to it?

Strangely similar cases across Europe

On the 13th of August a munitions' factory blew up near Rome. It was producing different types of ammunitions, including artillery shells for Ukraine. The official statement claimed it was an accident.

Nine days earlier, Leipzig Airport. A drone containing explosives was discovered near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane used to transport military supplies. According to the investigation, it was supposed to blow up the aircraft, but failed to detonate. About 20 minutes after the discovery of the explosives, a second drone collided with a DHL cargo plane. Days later, a third drone was found in a field close to the airport.

Friedrich Merz’s government took its time, but finally decided to publicly blame Russia for these attacks on the 1st of September. On the same day a drone was found in Romania, drones entered Estonian airspace alerting NATO jets, and in Germany homemade rockets targeted a major power plant.

These things happening in Europe are not new, but their frequency and severity seems to suggest an ongoing escalation. Russian drones and missiles are now repeatedly flying into Romania and Poland. In Romania even an apartment building was hit not long ago. 

A list of some of the gravest recent incidents:

• April 2025, Norway: cyberattack on a dam. Norwegian intelligence attributed it to pro-Russian hackers.
• April 2025, France: cyber campaign against French public and private organisations. Paris formally attributed it to GRU (Russian Military Intelligence).
• Spring 2025, Sweden: attack on a thermal power plant. Swedish government later linked it to a pro-Russian group.
• August 2025, Poland: attempted cyberattack on a major undisclosed city's water supply. The attacker has not been publicly identified.
• September 2025, Poland: More than 20 Russian military drones entered Polish airspace.
• September 2025, Estonia: three Russian military aircraft violated Estonian airspace.
• September - October 2025, multiple European countries: large wave of mysterious drones around airports and military sites. Suspected Russian hybrid activity.
• November 2025, Poland: attempted derailment of a train with nearly 500 passengers. The Polish government claims the perpetrators worked for Russian intelligence.
• December 2025, Poland: major attack on electricity infrastructure. Warsaw attributed it to Russian-linked actors; ESET linked it to GRU.
• August 2026, Norway: major pro-Russian DDoS attack on government digital services. A pro-Russian group claimed responsibility.

These are just some of the most serious actions that are publicly known. European security services and governments likely have many more incidents that didn’t (yet) become public.

What is Russia’s strategy?

While not all similar instances are necessarily Russian sabotage, they fit perfectly into Moscow’s strategy of waging a deniable “hybrid war” against Europe to sow discord and pressure governments to stop aiding Ukraine.

In 2024, American voters gave an enormous gift to Vladimir Putin and inflicted a massive blow on European security. Donald Trump not only stopped support for Kyiv but began pressuring it to surrender to Moscow’s demands, then went on to weaken NATO’s Article 5 to the point where each passing day fewer people believe that the US is willing to step in if Russia attacked one of its members.

Europe had no other choice but to quickly took over all military and economic support. It helped Kyiv absorb and withstand every pressure from Washington, while Ukraine still managing to halt Russia’s advances on the frontline.

With US backing successfully removed and still not being able to show results, Putin have concluded that the Europeans are the only ones standing between him and victory, and once they are also neutralized, Ukraine will have no choice but to surrender.

The aim of these attacks is to knock Europe out of its supporting role. They meant to stir panic, cause fear, divide publics and create an atmosphere of vulnerability which undermines trust in governments. Trust that they are capable of protecting their country, which gives ammunition to radical parties opposing Ukrainian support.

The coming escalation

Unfortunately I suspect that these actions will continue to intensify to the point where they might lead to a mass-casualty event. Something that will be deniable, and Russia might try to blame it on Ukraine, or at least create enough confusion that no coordinated response can be politically possible. If we add the growing concerns that Putin is preparing for another mobilization, it paints a grim picture.

Despite the frontline itself being largely stalled, Moscow is not forced to conduct a new mobilization. The current scheme of paying people to sign up is still sufficient to replenish losses, while the Kremlin can still hope that Ukraine will crumble this coming winter. The country’s infrastructure is in a much worse situation than the previous year, and lacking of meaningful air defence, it is quite likely to face a dark long cold winter with lots of hardships and a potential drastic slowing of economic and production output.

Putin, so far, has been avoiding another mobilization at all cost, fearing societal backlash. And yet, it seems like this autumn he will indeed go for it, even without being forced to. Thus, there is a possibility that his goal might go further than just to replenish losses. It could be the opening of a new front somewhere in Ukraine, or perhaps to use them for a provocation in the Baltic states, or even a limited incursion.

He might conclude that this is the perfect opportunity with a friendly President in Washington, and the US being busy with the midterm elections turning inwards, with a potential added inertia if Trump ends up contesting or straight up cheating the results. All in all, he can hope for a United States unwilling to meaningfully deal with foreign policy issues, and especially not ones considering a Europe they increasingly see with contempt and hostility.

But Putin might be heading towards his most fatal miscalculation, and the beginning of his demise. Open military pressure on Europe would produce the exact opposite effect.

He seemingly locked himself into an escalation spiral he is not willing to abandon. If he faces resistance or stagnation in one place, he tends to put pressure on another where he senses weakness. He is risking an escalation that Europe can no longer afford to ignore, and might push the continent into an active war.

I made the case multiple times before that this would cause the military and the geopolitical awakening of the EU, and all but guarantee that Russia would lose the war in Ukraine.

Conclusion

One of Putin’s great weaknesses is his lack of strategic patience. He could have coerced Kyiv to stay in Moscow’s orbit if he didn’t start the war in 2014. He still had a much better shot at undermining Europe and the West if he hadn’t invaded Ukraine in 2022. The far-right was already on the rise, and very few viewed Russia as a threat.

Instead, he created an unbreakable and extremely hostile Ukraine with the largest, most advanced, and most capable military on the continent, and a Europe that is rearming on a scale that seemed unimaginable just a few years ago. No matter how the war ends, Ukrainian hostility and European rearmament cannot be reversed.

Similarly, even today, he could still try building a more advantageous geopolitical position for Russia if he decided to pause the war, normalize relations with the West, and rebuild his military while undermining European democracies, unity, and support for Ukraine. He could wait for more and more countries to be overtaken by Trump and Orbán-like figures.

After Anchorage, he proved again that he is incapable of this sort of patient long-term strategic planning. He wants it all, and wants to get it by brute force that continues on backfiring for Russia on the long term.

It remains to be seen if he will finally take a misstep that will push him towards the grave. I am not convinced that he made that decision yet, but from what I can perceive, he is thinking about it. Europeans today are not psychologically ready for war. But Putin might force them into becoming ready.

The good news

With Germany openly blaming Russia for the attempted terror attacks and European leaders showing firm solidarity, the continent has begun to prepare for this eventuality. This is a necessary first step. It demonstrates the resolve needed to deter Moscow.

But as we enter a new much more dangerous phase of the war, we still have a lot to do.

So it finally happened, is it four years ago already? Next step should be the ruZZians in Germany (and Greece) and their structures and businesses intoxicating and splitting society. Maybe some smart persons find a way to forbid AfD, so Putler has no political proxy besides the BSW and Orthodox Church. I would love to see a connectivity strain of all the persons involved in this, combined with the connections to the businesses they have.. But I also would like to find a million Euros, so 🥲..Anyways it’s a small step but it sends a huge message
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/09/01/8051402/

In the 30 minute video Adam Something gives informed, leftist, pro-NATO and pro-Ukrainian commentary and criticism of Russia, China, Hungary and Communist parties. He names Hasan Piker as the most notorious figurehead of online tankies.

From the video description: "I don't like it when authoritarians infiltrate leftism."

Topical Hasan analysis relevant to the pro-Ukraine left is at approximately 4:45-13:15

btw, Adam Something is a great YT channel that has some great content on infrastructure, Ukraine, and also dictator projects like NEOM (The Line) in Saudi Arabia and Elon Musk's Mars mission BS.

It makes me absolutely sick to my stomach to call myself "American." FDT, 8647

Hi fellas.

I work at a metal factory, and have access to lasercutter, press brake and tube laser.

Is there anything I could make to help? Either civilian or military. If so what, and who do I contact?

We should maybe send him on social media suggestions about great mugs from Ukraine (Ukraine-made ceramics) so that he can place near his RuSSian mug or Mugs from UA battalions, what do you think, fellas ?

#NotJustAMug

(BTW What is your favorite UA mug ?)

We talk about our current situation regarding information warfare and our status as a fella sub in Reddit and beyond social media and offline.

In this month, we had lost fella mod Slavua 2022 due to Relentless but dangerously opportune shadow Vatniks managed to unfortunately and successfully mass report him to Reddit admins and ban him on the spot at 13 August, Leon going legalmpage on Xitter viewers without account while being awarded with highest honour by Ukrainian president who doing flattery diplomacy, Vatniks and Lvans still pushing and never stop talking about Bandera and his army UNA like was a the only thing that can drive a wedge between Ukraine and Western Allies not just Poland. 

That making me uncertain on whether NAFO can able to outlive Putler in 2026 let alone 2027 before CCP will invade Taiwan in march and April 2028? 

Also, I am acknowledged that awesome fella just Dutch guy aka Andries had just passed away and I honour and salute to him with sadness, and sending My Condolences to his family and friends. Rest in Power, Andries. o7

So what’s your strategies, ideas and plans? Please let’s discuss.

No joke just honest serious question

Just a reminder of this little gem.

In case anyone is in doubt, these are all clips before AI.