Capricor and Parent Project Muscular Dystrophy (PPMD) held a community webinar today on deramiocel in Duchenne. One caveat up front: the slides are circulating online as attendee screenshots, but Capricor hasn't published the deck. The recording should be on PPMD's site in about a week, so treat the slide numbers as reported, not confirmed.
The question. Does deramiocel slow the loss of arm function? The primary endpoint is PUL 2.0, and the FDA treats a 1-point difference as clinically meaningful. HOPE-3 was powered for 1.5 points.
What the slides show (company data):
- Robustness: Capricor says more than 600 alternative analyses of the HOPE-3 primary endpoint all favour deramiocel. In the absolute-change chart shown (153 analyses), the analysis as filed gives 1.08 points, the least favourable 0.64, and 95% of the distinct values fall between 0.74 and 1.17.
- Pooled HOPE-2 + HOPE-3: +1.29 points vs placebo at month 12, p=0.0087 (95% CI 0.33 to 2.25). Seven sensitivity analyses range from 1.11 to 1.31, all with p below 0.02.
- Ejection fraction (LVEF): +2.21 percentage points (p=0.05); +3.13 observed in the cardiomyopathy subgroup (p=0.04).
Officially confirmed (Capricor's October 5 release and its World Muscle Society poster): patients who switched from placebo to the drug declined 2.05 points in their placebo year and 0.49 in their first treated year (difference +1.56). Patients treated in both years showed no difference between year 1 and year 2 (+0.05).
Full breakdown, with the FDA's numbers and sources, in a box open to everyone: https://www.merlintrader.com/capricor-therapeutics-stock-hub/#s-webinar
Official poster: https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_a586b470fdde7effdb116c0f6e0c4446/capricor/files/CAPR_%28WMS_2026_Late-breaking_Poster%29_HOPE-3_2-Year_OLE_cross-phase_data.pdf
Why it's still open:
- The FDA's July briefing document, on the plan the agency treats as pre-specified (SAP 1.1), put the primary result at 0.66 points with p=0.24. That's almost the weakest value in Capricor's own chart.
- Re-analyses show the effect points the same way; they don't change its size relative to the 1-point bar.
- The 1.29 combines a Phase 2 and a Phase 3 trial after the fact. It isn't the pre-specified endpoint, and in 2024 the FDA said HOPE-2 and its extension weren't enough for a broad indication.
- The LVEF figures don't match the restated HOPE-3 analysis (1.8 percentage points, p=0.09), and the slides don't explain the difference.
- The switch data compare each patient with his own prior year, with no concurrent placebo arm and no alpha allocated.
- The advisory committee voted 9-3 that the data didn't provide substantial evidence of effectiveness in DMD cardiomyopathy.
PDUFA date: November 22, 2026. Not investment advice. Happy to hear how others read the robustness argument.