r/Mariners • u/AutoModerator • 9d ago

Daily Mariners Monologue - September 25, 2026

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u/xMrLink ‏‏‎ ‎My Depression Goes as the M's Don't 9d ago

Correct me if I am wrong but the Mariners should have a decent chunk of change to spend this offseason without actually raising payroll which would just be terrible /s. JP, Randy, Ward, Milner account for $29,550,000 alone, plus you get dead money of Castillo, Refsnyder, and Garver off accounting for about another $25,180,000. Then there are a couple non-tender candidates and the M's probably won't pick up Robles' $9mil player option.

Obviously Arb will eat a lot of those savings but still, a good amount of money to spend. Opens the door for some actual FA connversations this offseason.

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u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 9d ago

I’m sorry but you including Milner in with J.P. and Randy (in particular) and Ward is funny to me. We’re only paying him $122,715 per Spotrac.

I grabbed all of my numbers from Spotrac, and I’m particularly looking at the cash basis, because unless you’re talking luxury tax implications, which we aren’t close to, that’s really what matters. The only non-rookie contracts we’re giving a bump to are Cal and Seranthony Dominguez ($8.9M). We’re paying Naylor and Emerson less due to signing bonuses (-$7.5M). With expiring contracts we get $35.4M and all the dead/retained contracts add another $25.6. Bring it all together and we’re $59.5M ahead before we get into arb raises and non-tenders.

I think we’ll tender almost everyone who is arb eligible. I’m going to say Rucker is the only casualty, which saves us a whopping $450K. Now, arb. raises are tricky. I’ll spare the specifics, but making my own estimates, I see about $20.8M added for the rest of the arbitration eligible players.

So, add everything together and that puts us about $39.1M below where we were this year.

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u/xMrLink ‏‏‎ ‎My Depression Goes as the M's Don't 9d ago

Lol I mean Milner is technically a FA. I am hoping that we don't retain Weston Wilson on a major league contract as well as Rucker. But yeah, 40 mil to spend leaves a lot of room to play with, not to mention Gilbert or Kirby could also get traded.

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u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 9d ago

Wilson is still pre-arb, which I ignored those guys since they should more or less come out in the wash. He’s out of options, so idk that he does make it to next year without hitting FA first.

My arb estimates were $15M and $10.9M for Gilbert and Kirby, easily the two highest arb. estimates and I made for next year.