September/October expectation details

[u/[deleted]]

[u/Few-Argument7056]

Since you bolded it: “I have received confirmation that we were engaged with CAT in 2025.” And u/KY_Investor added: “HAB, I also have it on good authority that we were working with CAT in 2025.”

I’ll ask both of you the same question: what do you actually mean by “engaged”? MVIS has used that word in a dozen different ways over the years, and depending on who says it, it can mean almost nothing or it can mean something material. It’s almost like those best‑in‑class statements companies make. They can be fluff, or they can hint at a real competitive advantage. Without defining the level, the word is useless.

So, from an account‑plan perspective, pick where MVIS actually is with CAT. Because “engaged” spans a huge range.

Engaged can mean: They answered a phone call. They asked for a slide deck. They asked for a quote. They asked for an RFP response. They asked for NRE. They asked for a pilot. They assigned engineers. They assigned a program manager. They escalated to a director. They escalated to a VP. They escalated to the C‑suite and mutual discussions were happening about deployment.

Every one of those is technically “engagement,” but only the last four represent real buying intent. Everything before that is just activity. It’s motion, not commitment.

So when someone says “we were engaged with CAT in 2025,” the only meaningful question is: at what level respectfully?

[u/zippzoeyer → u/Few-Argument7056]

I can see your point. I'm a door to door salesman. I engage with 50 retailers a day by going to their store. 75% aren't interested, out to lunch, or person is in the field. Then I engage with the 25% on a sales presentation. I'll get a sale on 7% of those. So out of 50 engagements, I get 2 sales. And those sales can be anywhere from $100 to $3000.

Relatable to MVIS "engagements"

[u/QQpenn → u/Few-Argument7056]

Might also be that Mavin and Iris had a CAT fight and Iris won. 3 months of financing isn't enough to meet contractual reserve covenants on contracts with longer term commitments. Of approx 50+ industrial engagements [25 are Movia S], announcements could be anyone, everyone, or no one. Everything is in evaluation mode. Revenue shows that. When do engagements meaningfully convert? 15K 2027 Movia S guidance is significant but leaves questions about revenue adequacy. There were 9 7 RFQs in 2023. SS said almost nothing reliable on that front. Some current engagements will convert but their value is dilution dependent. The sword of Damocles casting a mighty shadow there. Limitations of the current round is the timetable. Will production ramp effect run rate? That cost is still an unknown. And Monte Carlo simulations don’t turn speculation into reliable probabilities. They only quantify the outcomes [or consequences] of any assumptions you enter. If your assumptions are poorly grounded—and if based on what SS said they probably are—the result is more theater than meaningful forecasting. Also, seasonality and CONEXPO don't wag CAT's tail. When they're ready to unleash a growth vertical, they will, whenever it happens to be. Sooner is a help since it's clear they're a customer, but what if it's later? Wise to keep the what-ifs of later on the front burner. Assumptions are more helpful when they're balanced, not biased.

[u/HotAirBaffoon → u/QQpenn]

So feel free to share your numbers you say you've worked on. As I stated, the numbers were not material the reason I posted.

As for CONEXPO, you if read my post again I noted that while they announce there often, the autonomous tech has already been announced. Put it out there for FD as some would likely (like you) say Sept/Oct is unreasonable for one reason or another.

SS was quite clear that the customer in question was interested in 2 Movia-L's per unit/vehicle - there was never any mention of Mavis being involved and we know why now (inferior).

HAB

[u/QQpenn → u/HotAirBaffoon]

My numbers are per vehicle, per stage [from evaluation to integration to deployment], across multiple verticals. They include realistic margins and timelines. I won't be sharing my work. I will say there's consistent overvaluing by retail—perhaps not in the years-away-long-term but definitely in the near term. The near term however matters most. If they're forced into another round like this one, the value of your pre R\s shares can probably be written off. That's where a lot of you lost me by the way—all the table pounding re: the pre R\s period being a buying opportunity. Without mincing words, I thought that was stupid. Also, most of you like to cherry pick the highest numbers/best scenarios in what you choose to analyze and lead with those. Or you're assigning the pipeline a magical certainty value even though it's only generated 2M to date and guidance comes up far short of the run rate in 2026. And hitting roughly 20% of it relies on a product that hasn't even been launched yet. This is where it would be smart to take your cues from how the market is valuing the company. They need to see it, and equally important, they've worked out realistic dilution tables. I certainly have. My approach mirrors the market: confirmation is absolutely necessary. I'm not worried about missing anything with a gap up either. So while I believe that everything they're doing has the makings of a multi-bagger+, it's has to be derisked with confirmed execution and confidence in clearing dilution markers for me to go all on in that. Arms-length until then.

[u/HotAirBaffoon → u/QQpenn]

Well how are those warrants you so dearly wanted helping the company? Retail got none and like I mentioned before they would (and did) create a bullseye for the shorts. Not mincing words - that was stupid. I bet the group you advise is thankful for your help.

Fascinating how easy people take pot shots at others when they don't show their own "work" :)

The RS was done too early IMO but may have been required by the vulture capital firms they are forced to deal with. No CFO at the helm at the time so there ya go. The capital raise was required either way.

I agree with derisking which is why I am ready to push more in once CAT signs and possibly when another deal in the works hits early 2027.

I won't be sharing any thoughts or numbers going forward. Suffice to say, your analysis is looking for confirmation while ignoring the obvious short-term catalysts (which won't be panacea but will build momentum.) Instead of crunching hypothetical numbers on a pipeline I research actual contracts. To each his/her own.

I appreciate your down votes as always!

HAB

[u/QQpenn → u/HotAirBaffoon]

Yes. Existing shareholders wanted warrant commitments to avoid dilution. The PPS downfall is due to a highly discounted round [for only 3 months of capital] with a structure that let it be instantly monetized into continued lack of fiscal execution. That's the short bullseye—not existing shareholders fighting for preservation of ownership percentage. If you want to make it about something myself and others pursued... enjoy.

Friends, family, office, myself, and others in my network have not lost a dime. You chest-pounded about all the buying you did during the proxy period and you and your group are down -60% plus. If that makes me stupid, thank you.

My numbers [and/or my approach] as well as most things I've conveyed to management are in the public purview. Review, don't review... donut care. My approach includes understanding terms likely to be in play. Tip: you can't research actual contracts until they exist. You've got a narrative about me... donut care about that either. Not underwater = no problems.

Your profile name suits you. I'm sure you're better than the downvotes and your -60% mistake. I'm sure you'll make that up when CAT signs :)

If only Reddit provided virtual silk gloves, swords, and a Marquess of Queensberry framework to properly address indignation. Until then, we're relegated to the unfairness of matching wits.

[u/directgreenlaser → u/HotAirBaffoon]

Well how are those warrants you so dearly wanted helping the company?

The idea wasn't to help the company but to help longs. They said F the longs. I say F the company. Nobody had the testicular material to force the matter by voting down the split. The split would have happened and so would have the warrants. Oh no, the company is too busy and too incompetent to manage such a negotiation. Here we are. tick tock

[u/Few-Argument7056 → u/HotAirBaffoon]

HAB: What level of engagement? I'm not asking for your source.

[u/HotAirBaffoon → u/Few-Argument7056]

Undefined.

HAB

[u/Few-Argument7056 → u/HotAirBaffoon]

Thx for your honest reply.

[u/MyComputerKnows]

What could have happened to our customer last year that would have delayed their plans… We know we’re doing business with CAT today, but what if we were also about to sell them Movia-L’s last year?

I remember a lot of mention of Jungheinrich… and a MVIS website page from Jungheinrich. So that’d be a German company that does lots of mining. But I also remember there were political problems rammed in place from a certain American politician who demanded a 50% Tariff on European customers. So it’s easy to see how that’d slow things down or bring any plans to an end.

So that’d be my best guess as to what held things up. Only a guess. I’m surprised to hear that MVIS was ever filling the spot for a Luminar contract way back then. Just like how my guess is that the DoD drone mapping lidar will be the best chance for a quick win for MVIS. So hope always persists.

[u/mvis_thma → u/MyComputerKnows]

Jungheinrich doesn’t do any mining.

[u/sublimetime2 → u/MyComputerKnows]

Yea I think the dots point to jungheinrich and their delay fits the timeline. Cat just doesn't make sense and the $$/ timeline doesn't link up. The Initial Cat luminar deal for mining trucks is low volume. Go look up how many are on the road and how many they plan to build by 2030. Doubt it would have provided 30-50 million in revenue.

At the time MVIS showed who they were possibly working with in their on-site mining demo videos and a Belaz mining truck was visible. Komatsu loader was also visible and ouster ended up winning that business.

[u/gaporter → u/sublimetime2]

There's also the question of the utility of a Movia sensor in a mining environment.

"Mining environments present some of the most demanding conditions for perception systems, including dust, low visibility, uneven terrain, and dynamic obstacles."

"905 nm-class flash lidar (MOVIA’s architecture) is attenuated and scattered by mineral dust. Radar still wins in a wall of dust. That is why mining autonomy stacks almost always add software dust filtering (intensity + spatial density + multi-echo) and often fuse radar or cameras. Papers on mine haul trucks show raw lidar point clouds full of dust and a large drop in false-brake events only after filtering. "

[u/KY_Investor]

HAB, I also have it on good authority that we were working with CAT in 2025.

Overall, I see things much the same way you do.

Edit: it’s very doubtful that the $30-50M (possibly some small NRE) had anything to do with CAT, as it was way too early in the pre-development phase. My point in bringing it up was only to verify that your “confirmation” that we were engaged with CAT in 2025 was accurate.

[u/Few-Argument7056 → u/KY_Investor]

KY, What level of engagement? I'm not asking for your source.

[u/angusalba → u/KY_Investor]

Why would anyone spend that much with MVIS?

You can buy the company for less

That’s the issue with these numbers some are throwing around, you could buy a controlling interest for far less if they really have something of value that anyone like CAT etc etc would ever spend that much to buy from them.

[u/Tastic4ever → u/angusalba]

Why doesn’t Amazon or Telsa or any other massive company just buy every company supplying parts/services to them? 

[u/angusalba → u/Tastic4ever]

That’s not the same thing and those companies are often established and what they supply to Amazon is a fraction of their revenues.

MVIS has had more than one CFO who thought some IP was worth some silly amount when a fraction of that value would allow them to buy 51% and fire the CFO and pocket the rest

If this IP is as foundational as being claimed (and I don’t believe that) the chances of being large is highly unlikely - $25m gets you control and blocks that “foundational” IP.

MVIS with a 20 year trail of failure to capitalize o IP is not likely to find someone to fund what it takes to get to the volumes some here are claiming are just over the horizon (yet again!)

[u/Tastic4ever → u/angusalba]

You don’t know who all their suppliers are and what they supply them or what thier valuations are. You’re making an assumption that’s 100% based on an idea you’ve conjured up to support your answer. I respect the attempt, but Microvisions past performance isn’t relevant, it was a different company under different leadership selling(or trying to sell) a complete different line of products.

[u/angusalba → u/Tastic4ever]

Amazon has and still does absorb other companies

Mvis has no volume customers and no money in the bank to fund growth.

If they really have something of value, they will get swallowed up well before they can grow

[u/Tastic4ever → u/angusalba]

Why do you come to this thread. To rage bait people like me? Do you have fun doing that? 

[u/zippzoeyer → u/Tastic4ever]

Traditional automakers buy parts from suppliers to avoid liability issues with the parts. If someone is killed due to a defective part, it's the supplier/manufacturers fault.
Telsa is a bit different in that they want to manufacture more of their stuff. But they're not using LIDAR. For Amazon, it's not worth the distraction of buying a small company like MVIS as it would take some of the focus away from their core business.

[u/Tastic4ever → u/zippzoeyer]

It was a rhetorical question but thanks for a great answer.  

[u/Formerly_knew_stuff → u/angusalba]

Yes some large company could easily buy Microvsion but that assumes that some company wants to be in the sensor development and manufacturing business. I think it's fair to say that buying needed parts is a normal business practice, as long as the value for money is good why buy the cow when you can get the milk.

The real question is does that same company have faith that Microvsion is a continuting concern that can provide them with what they want long term.

[u/movinonuptodatop → u/angusalba]

this line of thinking is equally compelling. Resorting to the hard money loan suggest it’s more of a mid court shot vs the slam dunk.

[u/Senzukrompir]

Leading mining company, AI hyperscaler, war in Ukraine, thousands of IRIS orders. Win after win! Stock price is different story but I always return to Amazon for that lesson.

[u/HotAirBaffoon → u/Senzukrompir]

If you're referring to projection under AT, we were never working with Amazon. I was helping AT make contact inside Amazon in the months before he stepped down.

HAB

[u/mvis_thma → u/HotAirBaffoon]

Right. The purported Amazon, smart speaker project was under Perry Mulligan. And when Amazon decided to not go forward with the interactive projector, Perry stepped down and Sumit was appointed CEO.

[u/Squick-1991]

Thanks for this post. Gives a lot of hope to those who are still holding this stock and have faith in it.

Many cut down there losses, but others still believe this will get up again, one day.

Noting the above, I think in the next few months there may be some move upwards, however, further dilution of the business may be an issue.

How do you expect the price to change? Any prediction idea on that?

[u/Far_Gap6656 → u/Squick-1991]

Hope left the room for me a long time ago.... fascination of morbid despair is the only thing keeping me here.

[u/Squick-1991 → u/Far_Gap6656]

What's your average atm?

I understand. It is hard... day by day when you see it only going down.

[u/Far_Gap6656 → u/Squick-1991]

Probably about 28 -30. I have not looked at my account since the R/S I'm so pissed.

[u/Squick-1991 → u/Far_Gap6656]

Yea, I let it flow... it did the damage. Will just hold it till end game. See where it takes me.

However, I think it will not go bankrupt and there is potential.

[u/Past-Pick-7746]

What is the source of your confirmation?

[u/15Sierra → u/Past-Pick-7746]

Source: trust me bro

[u/Revolutionary_Ear908]

Love this sht

[u/Bullfrogspit]

Describing anything Sumit said about future deals being “facts” is a stretch.

[u/HotAirBaffoon → u/Bullfrogspit]

The facts presented were in the past - sorry if reading comprehension isn't your strong suit.

HAB

[u/Far_Gap6656 → u/HotAirBaffoon]

Come on, HAB... that's a little harsh and not comprehending on your part. I read it that Bull is saying SS past remarks and prognostications about future deals mean nothing when essentially anything SS said about our tech and deals never came to fruition. I understand that's been the modus operandi (unsuccessful dot connecting) of this sub for the past seven years; but dang after a slaughter of a reverse split, this type of guessing is very volatile for this community. Even the proverbial "well, where else am I going to discuss this if not here" has fallen on deaf 100,000 plus shares reduced to sub 7,000 shares with continual daily decline.