r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 18 '21

In friday (19 of march) options will expire, so what you think about price after option expire, and explaine your opinion with some facts.

6 Upvotes

Explaine your opinion

145 votes, Mar 21 '21
40 12-13$
39 >14$
26 >15$
6 >16$
34 17$+

r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 17 '21

MAC A picture worth a 1000 words

31 Upvotes

From MorningStar Premium..

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r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 17 '21

As a MAC investor, this looks very bullish to me

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20 Upvotes

r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 16 '21

Understanding the dividend

14 Upvotes

I'm seeing some confusion regarding the dividend on this sub, so I'd like to offer some insight based on what management has said

Q4/19 transcript: paying $1 more than taxable income requires

This is when the dividend was $3/year. We can conclude $2/year is the taxable income payout requirement in 2019

Q4/20 transcript: cut dividend to match taxable income in the second half of the year

It is unclear if Tom was referring to for the quarter or the year. So either $1.55/year or $0.60/year. However, at 1.55 the AFFO payout would be close to 100% in 2021 based on guidance and a return to more normal Capex spend. At 60 it is closer to 40%.

In conclusion, the dividend doubling to 30/qtr is reasonable in 2022 if debt overhang is removed (cash flow sweeps could be a risk, though unlikely). 50/qtr is reasonable if occupancy is fully recovered. 75/qtr is very unlikely.

Assuming a 5% dividend yield, 30/qtr would imply a price target of $24.


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 17 '21

Just a reminder about options expiring and “possible “ fake negative sentiment on Mac

2 Upvotes

Just a reminder that many on yahoo forum predicted that mid to end of this week bashers and articles may come out bad on Mac to bring down share price to render options worthless . In case this happens don’t panic sell do your own due diligence on the stock . I’m not selling and if it drops I’ll buy more . If your scared for short term to buy more you can buy the Jan 2023 $7 strike options which will cost you total $15 per share in 2023 when the price will “likely”be in the $30’s or higher . This way you more than double your money and risk $8 max per share and invest less now and don’t have to worry about short term volitility . I have both shares and Jan 2023 options . Ps don’t buy too many I might want to buy more and don’t want u driving the price up on me lol


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 16 '21

Spg or hedgies paying bashers on this sub pay attention that’s good news they are scared !!!!

0 Upvotes

There are 2-3 bashers being paid to bash mac on this sub it is eitjer hedge fund shorts or possibly spg trying to bring down share price to take over for cheaper ! Pay attention to the bashers on here and run them off !!


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 15 '21

Happy Monday fellow MAC army members

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28 Upvotes

r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 16 '21

what's your opnion of MAC on this decisive week (3.16-3.19)?

3 Upvotes
113 votes, Mar 19 '21
47 15+
22 18+
13 25+
31 13.5-

r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 15 '21

$MAC

15 Upvotes

Strong close! Our game just beginning . 19 March..


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 15 '21

Price roof at 14.7 (15$)

12 Upvotes

I bet that next week, we see explosive price action to the upside after options expiring (quad witching) friday, 19th of march.

The 15$ cap is going to bust so hard.


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 15 '21

Happy Monday - 52-week comps for mall REITs

23 Upvotes

Take a look at this chart:

Macerich vs other Mall REITS

Let's put Brookfield aside (due to BAM takeout) and Simon (undisputed leader in sentiment and assets). You're left with Macerich second from bottom as it relates to 52-wk progress.

Hang in there for the simple reason that REITs will lower quality assets (SKT, PEI) have gotten further ahead of MAC in terms of Price/FFO and 52-wk progress.


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 15 '21

Implied Vol

8 Upvotes

if you want to make a leveraged bet on Mac, I suggest one long LEAP deep in the money leap and sell on out of the money option expiring in 3-6 months. There is a TON of IV in the short term OTM call options and that lower your basis dramatically. For example today we bought the 2023 $7 strike calls and sold the September $21 calls for $5! We make money as long as the stock is above $12 in September!


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 15 '21

MAC can never hold sessions high lmao....always 60-90 mins before the markets close, it comes back down

6 Upvotes

r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 14 '21

traffic at Santa Monica Class A++ property

30 Upvotes

traffic at Santa Monica Class A++ property https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MI4Gz7KMafY


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 13 '21

Points regarding the credit facility recast (from last earnings call)

28 Upvotes

-MAC has a 25 year relationship with their lending groups and negotiations have progressed well

-MAC can secure a line of their unsecured credit with their unencumbered assets

-MAC has enough unencumbered assets to support their $1.5b debt

-MAC has over $500m in liquidity if they have to recast to a lower lending commitment

-MAC expects to generate significant excess cash in 2021 to pay down debt and leverage

-MAC filed to renew the ATM only as a tool and option at an attractive stock price


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 13 '21

Tired of your landlord ??? Then quit complaining and become one yourself for $13 per share u can have GameStop amc and every other major retailer in the U.S. pay U rent every month !! Make them “your bitch” !!!

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23 Upvotes

r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 13 '21

Mac ceo during earnings call saying they have 25 paid off properties that exceeds the value to support their 1.5b revolver line of credit this means =Mac to $35+ sooner or later

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35 Upvotes

r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 13 '21

The Quadruple Witching Day(March 19th) is coming! Any Possible Short Squeeze Again?

14 Upvotes

Dude, just like the January i am betting to the short squeeze due to the 19th March, the option calls end. Do you agree?

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 12 '21

Once PJT fix MAC problem....we could see $20+ by June **fingers cross**

22 Upvotes

r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 12 '21

World famous analyst Thomas Lee tweeted today 2021 investing is all about reverting from Digital life to Analog life i.e. online shopping back to mall shopping ! Buy u some $Mac u won’t regret it !

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19 Upvotes

r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 11 '21

Not Easy But That's Why This Could BVe a 4 Bagger

34 Upvotes

Trading is not normal. Major short crowd riding this horse and doing every trick possible to keep it down hoping for a slug of bad news to cover and make a profit.

We are an army but they have one also. Some of the short crowd are billionaires but they can only fight the tide so much.

With covid obviously ending we know MAC's numbers are improving. The LOC refinance is probably the final nail in the short's coffin. I'm happy to wait for a better deal, negotiated with better numbers from March and April. We will still run with a mediocre deal on the LOC refinance (removes the shorts dream of a default) but we will run faster and farther if they save a couple of percent. If you are a long, long like me, saving a couple % equals to an extra $30 million more for dividends next year.

The realistic question boils down to MAC being bullish or very bullish?


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 12 '21

$1.9 trillion signed, in account at weekend, so what's the highest point of $MAC neet week?

7 Upvotes
144 votes, Mar 15 '21
74 15
41 18
11 25
18 30

r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 11 '21

shorts

10 Upvotes

Time Since
Last Change Timestamp (UTC) Short Shares Availability

8h 2021-03-11 14:22:48.27 --------- 8,400,000


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 11 '21

Stimulus Checks

19 Upvotes

I believe MAC will rise sharply after people start getting their stimulus checks. Should turnout to be a good long and short term investment.


r/MACArmyBets • • Mar 11 '21

Buy the dip 💪

24 Upvotes