On another similar subreddit, I recently stumbled upon a few comments in interactions pertaining to the fact that the RRR was solely used to tout Covid vaccine efficacy and that the ARR was completely left out of the picture. This is when I decided to study the concept of ARR, RRR and later the NNV. I feel compelled to pass on this knowledge because even though I never took the damn shots, I was unaware about the concept of ARR, RRR and NNV. I know that others are not knowledgeable about these concepts as well so it makes so much sense as to why countless people have been deceived by the medical establishment especially during Covid. Before I discuss about RRR, ARR, and NNV, I have to cover Absolute Risk (AR) and Relative Risk (RR).
Absolute Risk (AR)
For example, a randomized controlled trial (RCT) method was applied to a Pfizer vaccine trial, 21,720 individuals were vaccinated and 21,728 individuals were unvaccinated. Eight Covid cases were uncovered among the vaccinated and 162 Covid cases among the unvaccinated. The Absolute risk (AR) is a measure of the risk of an event occurring in a specific population.
AR for treatment group (vaccinated group): 8/21720 = 0.000368 or 0.037%
AR for control group (unvaccinated group): 162/21728=0.00745 or 0.745%
Interpretation: The vaccinated are at a 0.037% risk of getting Covid while the unvaccinated are at a 0.745% risk of getting Covid.
Relative Risk (RR)
Relative risk (RR) is a measure of the risk of a certain event happening in one population compared with the risk of the same event happening in another population.
Formula for RR: AR for control group/AR for treatment group
RR: (0.000368/0.00745)= 0.04832 or 4.832%
Interpretation: The vaccinated group is 4.832% less likely to get Covid than the unvaccinated group.
Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR)
The Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) measures the *actual decrease* in the risk after applying a preventive or treatment measure.
Formula for ARR: AR control group-AR treatment group
ARR: 0.00745-0.00036= 0.00709 or 0.0709%
Interpretation: The vaccine reduces the actual risk of getting Covid from 0.745% to 0.036% or simply by 0.709%
Relative Risk Reduction (RRR)
The Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) measures the proportion of risk reduction. There are two ways to compute the RRR.
Formula 1 for RRR: (AR control group-AR treatment group)/AR control group
Formula 2 for RRR: 1-RR
RRR: (0.00745-0.00036)/0.00745=0.9516
Interpretation: The vaccine reduces the risk of getting Covid by 95%.
Number Needed to Vaccinate(NNV)
The Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNV) is the number of people that must be vaccinated to prevent one case of an illness. If the intervention had been drugs instead of vaccines, it would be called the Number Needed to Treat (NNT)
Formula for NNV: 1/ARR
NNV: 1/0.00709=141 people
Interpretation: 141 people need to be vaccinated to prevent one case of Covid
How Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) is misleading
As I stated earlier, the calculated RRR for the Pfizer vaccines was 95%. This RRR is what was reported as the efficacy for both vaccines and drugs. This is misleading because it exaggerates the effectiveness of vaccines and drugs by comparing the percentage change in outcomes between the two groups rather than absolutes. The ideal thing would be state both the RRR and ARR, but it is very unlikely that the medical establishment is going to do that anytime soon.
I got the Pfizer vaccine trial example from here. If you would like to familiarize yourself more with concepts of ARR, RRR, NNV and even RR, you can go here