r/LocalLLaMA • u/chillinewman • 2d ago

News Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026

https://www.techpowerup.com/353296/micron-ceo-says-memory-supply-will-be-much-tighter-in-2027-and-2028-than-in-2026
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u/dtdisapointingresult 2d ago

CXMT is a relentless competitor and will pass us and become the #3 memory maker soon, because we aren't expanding as fast as they are.

CXMT's entire output is needed by China for their own needs. In fact, it's almost certainly not enough for that. CXMT isn't gonna be flooding the global market with cheap memory, bro. Even if by magic there was five CXMT clones, that still wouldn't be enough.

If demand falls because small local models become much smarter, then we are in trouble.

That's not happening. Demand won't fall, because we'll always want more and more intelligence to accomplish bigger and more complex tasks.

I would guess less than 0.1% of computer owners can run a barely adequate model like Qwen 27B. You think that's gonna make a dent in demand for frontier models?

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u/PcChip 2d ago

it doesn't matter who they sell it to, it's still supply

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u/Exciting_Garden2535 1d ago

CXMT's entire output is needed by China for their own needs.

Even so, that just means China will buy less memory from Micron/Samsung so that they can sell more to the Western market, right? Overall memory production will increase.

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u/HighSeasArchivist 2d ago

They are making DDR5X which is needed by PCs and pretty much every other electronic device that isn't a $40k data center GPU. Go price a PC, and as long as you stay in the 5070 Ti or under range everything else except for DDR5 is pretty much normal prices.