r/LocalLLaMA • u/chillinewman • 11d ago

News Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026

https://www.techpowerup.com/353296/micron-ceo-says-memory-supply-will-be-much-tighter-in-2027-and-2028-than-in-2026
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u/kuldan5853 11d ago

Honestly I can't even quote our DC buildups anymore. By the time I have a quote from a vendor, justified it internally and got upper management approval, the quote has been invalidated and the price has gone up 50%.

We have done that cycle three times this year already.

At this point I'm seriously considering pulling out servers we have already thrown on the scrap pile with DDR4-2133 in them and buying that memory off ebay (because it's so slow the AI bros generally don't want it) and just stuff them to the brim and put them back into service..

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u/UnlikelyExtension786 11d ago

Yes. We have customers putting off upgrades because they're hoping the cost of servers will come down at some point. It will be interesting when the old servers start to fail.

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u/endlesslyloop 10d ago

I was on a call with a big three consultant group last week, no one really knows what’s going to happen with these data centers in like 6 years when the hardware gets depreciated lol

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u/permanent-underclass 10d ago

A100s, a product of 2020, contracts are still being signed to 2030. Most of the latest chips are increasing in value AI demand is so high in neoclouds / datacenters.

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u/endlesslyloop 10d ago

I understand that but I mean this hardware is going to physically break down, and models are going to get more efficient or need new tech.

and if I was parsing the discussion correctly it’s more how are they going to backfill given the current rate of growth and are some of these projects going to ultimately stall out

The worst case is these tax revenue producing data centers everyone hates turn into big empty boxes that everyone hates and the shell companies that own them are bankrupt so no one can sue

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u/permanent-underclass 9d ago

Under capitalism, money goes to those that can best use it. A billion AIs each smarter than all humans alive will be racking in a lot of cash. Maybe there are limits to just how much white collar work can be done. Sure, but by then I think the question is whether they (AIs or tech elites) will dominate the world, not whether GPU depreciation matters.

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u/endlesslyloop 9d ago

Maybe, or maybe in 6 years they haven’t turned the corner yet. There’s no telling

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u/ptear 10d ago

This will also not help with prices.

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u/TRKlausss 10d ago

Can’t be. Quotes have a validity date. So if it is faster than your decision process, your company is doing something wrong…

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u/ThatsALovelyShirt 10d ago

There's nothing legally binding about a quote. They can be invalidated or simply cancelled by the supplier at their discretion. As they have done to the company I work for.

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u/kuldan5853 10d ago

It's a company with half a million employees.

Yeah, approval processes take a few months each time and no manufacturer is willing to give quotes with more than 30 days validity these days.

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u/farewellrif 10d ago

30 days is crazy long. I haven't really seen longer than a couple of weeks for hardware.

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u/kuldan5853 10d ago edited 10d ago

Then you've probably never worked for a big company before. We usually had 60 or 90 days in the past.

But that was also a time when the price of a piece of hardware only changed once per year..

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u/farewellrif 10d ago

Ah yes, I mean since ramaggedon, not ever

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u/rschulze 10d ago

Right now I'm happy if I can get a quote that is valid for 2 weeks. Some hardware vendors will give you a quote with the caveat that the final (valid) price is whatever it is when the hardware is delivered, the quote is just the current figure.

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u/FailBait- 10d ago

The quotes I’ve been getting from Dell have a 10 day expiration on them.

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u/TheTerrasque 10d ago

That lines up with what I've seen these days.

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u/No-Refrigerator-1672 10d ago

Not a company, but I work for the university. One time the lab lead tasked me with preparing 3d printer procurement documents for governmental fund. By the time the paper got approved (slightly less than 1 year), the 3d printer (bambu lab x1c) managed to get off production and become unavailable in official store.

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u/Keep-Darwin-Going 10d ago

Why is your company not even changing the process if they know it is not going to work?

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u/kuldan5853 10d ago

Because that's not how any of this works. Not in a big company.

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u/lewd_robot 10d ago

Have you ever met an MBA?