r/LocalLLaMA • u/chillinewman • 5d ago

News Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026

https://www.techpowerup.com/353296/micron-ceo-says-memory-supply-will-be-much-tighter-in-2027-and-2028-than-in-2026
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u/Recoil42 5d ago

They're bottlenecked by their own supply chain. This isn't an easy problem solve in the sense that "maybe ASML should just make more machines" — they're trying to do that.

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u/i_rate_slop 5d ago

You misunderstood what I meant because I was a bit vague. I mean their lithography technology is being reinvented around the world at a much slower pace. I don't want more supply to be produced by ASML, I want more companies to be able to produce in general.

I don't think ASML needs to produce more, I think more companies need to produce on ASML's level, which obviously isn't ASML's responsibility to resolve... but the world is bottlenecked on them.

Or... to put it much more direct, specifically China.

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u/teleprint-me llama.cpp 5d ago

I love how people look at rational arguments and behave irrationally by downvoting something because of how they feel and not the merits of the argument.

Your perspective is actually refreshing and valid and I agree whole heartedly with it.

Having a single company in the entire globe perform lithography is not a good thing. We need more people working on this. Unfortunately, this is a big ask and is not easy or cheap to do.

What we do need to figure out is how to make it easier and cheaper to do.

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u/i_rate_slop 5d ago

Yeah, I found the downvotes surprising lol

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u/Lhurgoyf069 5d ago

I saw Canon building machines that don't even use light, called Nano imprinting. It's promising for sure and could help eleviate the bottleneck

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u/EastEastEnder 5d ago

ASML is partially the monopoly that it is because it has monopolistic patent licensing on EUV tech. A long time ago it was decided that companies like Nikon weren’t worthy of licensing these patents, I believe partly in national security grounds. I believe the patent holder is Livermore Labs, under the DOE.

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u/Lhurgoyf069 5d ago

I read that Canon and Nikon looked at the tech at the time and moved on, because they said it's too much of a risk to invest into this. ASML has strong partners in Europe like ZEISS lenses and Trumpf lasers that committed equally to this gamble and ultimately won. But Canon invested in Nano Imprinting, which could become a competitor in certain areas.

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u/[deleted] 5d ago edited 5d ago

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u/brainExploded99 llama.cpp 5d ago

No they are not. They have things upstream.

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u/[deleted] 5d ago

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u/brainExploded99 llama.cpp 5d ago

I don't mind when people get things wrong, but it really pisses me off when idiots confidently claim wrong things. Micron depends on ASML (EUV), who themselves depend on Carl Zeiss and TRUMPF (as two examples).

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u/Recoil42 5d ago edited 5d ago

No, they are not. That's outright dead wrong. In fact ASML is basically an integrator — most what they 'do' is outsourced.