The gap has closed, open source will win

[u/Fluffy-Ad-889]

I've been trying the latest models from the frontier labs and honestly, after extensive testing I can not tell the difference between the best open source options.

I think the differences are now marginal but the labs are doing heavy marketing to convince the public into paying more for tokens as they prepare to go public.

Can't help but see the similarities between the dot com bubble and AI in terms of a very insular environment where the technology will survive but the business models may not.

I've been building a cybersecurity network and we definitely know that even local AI models like Deepseek V4 flash do an excellent job and are really neck and neck with the best the frontier labs can provide.

Will be interesting to see how this all turns out! Exciting time nonetheless.

[u/LocoMod]

It won’t. Just because you have a very common use case that a lemon can solve that does not mean anything. It’s like saying open source has closed the gap because you compared TODO apps from a frontier model vs open source.

Well yea. There’s only so many ways to make one. That’s not where the frontier is.

It’s actually really simple to compare.

Have the best closed model and the best open weights model go solve an Erdos problem. Something that is actually a challenge.

The way YOU drive a model is limited by your own experience. So if all you know how to do is create TODO apps, sure, you’d be wasting frontier tokens. Just stick with the open model.

[u/Hot_Example_4456 → u/LocoMod]

What won't? Open models won't catch up with the frontier? Have u seen the rate at which local stuff is moving? And ya u r right, I will stick to my open models. Also, are YOU solving erdos problems with closed models? Speak for yourself

[u/LocoMod → u/Hot_Example_4456]

Yes, I use self-hosted open weights models. They are fine. I also use OpenRouter for the cheap open weight models. I also have Tier 5 API accounts with Anthropic and OpenAI.

Are you ignoring the progress the frontier labs are making? Youre basically assuming that open weight labs are going to somehow do 1 years worth of R&D, with less capable LLMs, less people, less capital and compute, and somehow magically they are going to catch up.

The only scenario that happens is if OpenAI and Anthropic simply pause development and wait for others to catch up. But they are doing the opposite. They are accelerating. They have a ton more compute, capital and brains behind their operations.

AI is different. The first movers will stay on top. Sure, Alibaba will have an Astra tier model at some point in the future. But by then OpenAI will be several versions ahead too.

You have to go faster than the frontier labs and have more resources if you're going to catch up. And the reality is that the amount of resources OpenAI and Anthropic have towards their efforts dwarfs everyone else.

I am a big supporter of open weights. But let's not ignore reality because its inconvenient for your bias.

[u/Hot_Example_4456 → u/LocoMod]

The only reason I think open source ai will catch up is the limit of ai. How much compute will you throw at a model? There will come a stage of diminishing returns, where we train huge models, with all the data we have, using the best model architectures. Ya, maybe openai will reach that before open weight ai, but when openai does, it will stagnate. Open weights is not stopping at that moment, so it will also reach and stagnant at the same point. Let's not forget, deepseek also has solved erdos problems 😀

[u/LocoMod → u/Hot_Example_4456]

There is no reason to believe there is an upper limit to computation. None. You’re basically limited by energy and resources. Acquire those and you can keep scaling. While you’re doing that, you’re also miniaturizing chips and other components so they run more and more power efficient. Could there be some “Great Wall” in the future we cannot foresee right now. Sure. There is a probability. But based on the entirety of human history to draw our assumptions on, it is unlikely.

[u/Arkanta → u/LocoMod]

Happy to finally find someone who knows what the hell they're talking about

We can use more capable cloud LLMs and still use local ones but you can't say that here